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Duxton Water Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.53
5Y Range-2.29 – -1.42
5Y Selected-1.86
(-) Safety Margin85.32%
5Y Buy Price$-0.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-122.17%
10Y Range-1.94 – -1.30
10Y Selected-1.62
(-) Safety Margin85.32%
10Y Buy Price$-0.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-119.35%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.2288
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0018
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0114
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5792
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0398
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.1412
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5291
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0061
Safety Score0.1828

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-24.49%-21.33%-18.16%-14.99%-11.83%-8.66%-5.50%-2.33%0.83%4.00%
Revenue18.7614.7612.0810.279.058.277.817.637.708.00
EBITDA16.1612.7110.418.857.807.126.736.576.636.89
D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
EBIT16.1612.7110.418.857.807.126.736.576.636.89
Pro forma Taxes-4.78-3.76-3.08-2.62-2.31-2.11-1.99-1.95-1.96-2.04
NOPAT11.388.957.336.235.495.014.744.634.674.85
Capital Expenditures-27.18-21.38-17.50-14.87-13.12-11.98-11.32-11.06-11.15-11.59
NWC Investment-0.51-0.34-0.23-0.15-0.10-0.07-0.04-0.020.010.03
(+) D&A0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
Free Cash Flow-16.31-12.77-10.40-8.80-7.73-7.03-6.62-6.44-6.48-6.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00147,802,423.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.32%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF-16.21-12.41-9.51-7.57-6.25-5.35-4.74-4.34-4.10-4.00
Raw: -182.47
-143.15
Raw: -158.56
-91.56

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-195.11-166.04
(-) Net Debt56.9956.99
Equity Value-252.10-223.03
(/) Shares Out147.80147.80
Fair Value$-1.71$-1.51
(-) Safety Margin85.32%85.32%
Buy Price$-0.25$-0.22
Current Price$1.53$1.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-116.37%-114.48%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.32%Terminal Growth: 1.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-16.20-12.36-9.38-7.40-6.05-5.13-4.50-4.08-3.82-3.69
Raw: -134.78
-101.88
Raw: -117.11
-62.19

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-153.27-134.80
(-) Net Debt56.9956.99
Equity Value-210.26-191.80
(/) Shares Out147.80147.80
Fair Value$-1.42$-1.30
(-) Safety Margin85.32%85.32%
Buy Price$-0.21$-0.19
Current Price$1.53$1.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-113.65%-112.45%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.32%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.64
PV UFCF-16.23-12.47-9.64-7.75-6.46-5.58-4.99-4.61-4.40-4.33
Raw: -280.91
-228.78
Raw: -244.10
-153.41

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-281.32-229.86
(-) Net Debt56.9956.99
Equity Value-338.32-286.85
(/) Shares Out147.80147.80
Fair Value$-2.29$-1.94
(-) Safety Margin85.32%85.32%
Buy Price$-0.34$-0.28
Current Price$1.53$1.53
Upside (to Buy Price)-121.96%-118.62%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.53
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH119.70%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue161.69355.25780.481,714.743,767.318,276.8718,184.4539,951.6387,774.60192,842.68
Constant Implied Growth119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%119.70%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.020.040.080.170.380.831.824.008.7819.28
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.020.030.060.130.270.561.152.384.9210.16

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.42-15.84%$-4.67-428.88%
20182018-12-31$1.49-50.63%$-0.99-166.58%
20172017-12-31$1.09-20.80%$-0.96-187.95%
20162016-12-31$0.9934.01%$-9.83-1,093.63%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1.58
Median
$-1.52
10th Percentile
$-1.92
90th Percentile
$-1.30

Fair Value Distribution

$-4.47 - $-4.31
1
$-4.31 - $-4.14
0
$-4.14 - $-3.97
0
$-3.97 - $-3.81
0
$-3.81 - $-3.64
0
$-3.64 - $-3.47
0
$-3.47 - $-3.30
0
$-3.30 - $-3.14
1
$-3.14 - $-2.97
2
$-2.97 - $-2.80
3
$-2.80 - $-2.64
3
$-2.64 - $-2.47
8
$-2.47 - $-2.30
9
$-2.30 - $-2.14
22
$-2.14 - $-1.97
40
$-1.97 - $-1.80
70
$-1.80 - $-1.63
167
$-1.63 - $-1.47
268
$-1.47 - $-1.30
307
$-1.30 - $-1.13
99