| Current Price | $21.52 |
| 5Y Range | 9.68 – 12.82 |
| 5Y Selected | 11.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.45% |
| 10Y Range | 9.04 – 11.39 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.67 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.23% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4903 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0175 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4784 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5675 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6886 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4987 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0155 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1360 |
| Safety Score | 0.1636 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -7.88% | -6.56% | -5.24% | -3.92% | -2.60% | -1.28% | 0.04% | 1.36% | 2.68% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 609.40 | 569.41 | 539.57 | 518.41 | 504.92 | 498.46 | 498.65 | 505.43 | 518.98 | 539.73 |
| EBITDA | 29.01 | 27.11 | 25.68 | 24.68 | 24.04 | 23.73 | 23.74 | 24.06 | 24.70 | 25.69 |
| D&A | -7.99 | -7.47 | -7.08 | -6.80 | -6.62 | -6.54 | -6.54 | -6.63 | -6.81 | -7.08 |
| EBIT | 21.02 | 19.64 | 18.61 | 17.88 | 17.41 | 17.19 | 17.20 | 17.43 | 17.90 | 18.61 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -7.81 | -7.30 | -6.92 | -6.64 | -6.47 | -6.39 | -6.39 | -6.48 | -6.65 | -6.92 |
| NOPAT | 13.21 | 12.34 | 11.69 | 11.23 | 10.94 | 10.80 | 10.81 | 10.95 | 11.25 | 11.70 |
| Capital Expenditures | -9.80 | -9.16 | -8.68 | -8.34 | -8.12 | -8.02 | -8.02 | -8.13 | -8.35 | -8.68 |
| NWC Investment | 2.57 | 1.97 | 1.47 | 1.04 | 0.67 | 0.32 | -0.01 | -0.33 | -0.67 | -1.02 |
| (+) D&A | 7.99 | 7.47 | 7.08 | 6.80 | 6.62 | 6.54 | 6.54 | 6.63 | 6.81 | 7.08 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13.97 | 12.62 | 11.56 | 10.74 | 10.11 | 9.64 | 9.32 | 9.12 | 9.04 | 9.07 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 | 17,872,750.00 |
| Metric | Oct-25 | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 7/31/25 | 11/1/25 | 11/1/26 | 11/1/27 | 11/1/28 | 11/1/29 | 11/1/30 | 11/1/31 | 11/1/32 | 11/1/33 |
| Period End | 10/31/25 | 10/31/26 | 10/31/27 | 10/31/28 | 10/31/29 | 10/31/30 | 10/31/31 | 10/31/32 | 10/31/33 | 10/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/15/25 | 5/2/26 | 5/2/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/2/29 | 5/2/30 | 5/2/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/2/33 | 5/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.29 | 1.29 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 4.29 | 5.29 | 6.29 | 7.29 | 8.29 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.85 | 12.31 | 10.33 | 8.80 | 7.59 | 6.64 | 5.88 | 5.27 | 4.79 | 4.41 | Raw: 145.44 104.56 |
Raw: 130.49 60.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 157.43 | 140.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | -37.70 | -37.70 |
| Equity Value | 195.13 | 178.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17.87 | 17.87 |
| Fair Value | $10.92 | $9.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.64% | 83.64% |
| Buy Price | $1.79 | $1.63 |
| Current Price | $21.52 | $21.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.70% | -92.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.83 | 12.27 | 10.21 | 8.62 | 7.37 | 6.38 | 5.60 | 4.98 | 4.48 | 4.09 | Raw: 119.45 82.96 |
Raw: 107.18 46.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 135.26 | 123.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | -37.70 | -37.70 |
| Equity Value | 172.96 | 161.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17.87 | 17.87 |
| Fair Value | $9.68 | $9.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.64% | 83.64% |
| Buy Price | $1.58 | $1.48 |
| Current Price | $21.52 | $21.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.64% | -93.13% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 13.86 | 12.34 | 10.46 | 8.98 | 7.82 | 6.90 | 6.17 | 5.59 | 5.12 | 4.76 | Raw: 185.37 138.00 |
Raw: 166.32 83.89 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 191.47 | 165.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | -37.70 | -37.70 |
| Equity Value | 229.17 | 203.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17.87 | 17.87 |
| Fair Value | $12.82 | $11.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.64% | 83.64% |
| Buy Price | $2.10 | $1.86 |
| Current Price | $21.52 | $21.52 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.25% | -91.34% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,338.27 | 2,581.70 | 4,980.46 | 9,607.99 | 18,535.14 | 35,756.85 | 68,979.90 | 133,071.76 | 256,713.82 | 495,236.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.50 | 0.96 | 1.85 | 3.58 | 6.90 | 13.31 | 25.67 | 49.52 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.37 | 0.66 | 1.17 | 2.07 | 3.66 | 6.47 | 11.43 | 20.22 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-10-31 | $86.73 | -10.59% | $29.33 | -66.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-31 | $97.00 | -3.29% | $24.03 | -75.23% |
| 2017 | 2017-10-31 | $73.70 | 0.28% | $14.62 | -80.16% |
| 2016 | 2016-10-31 | $59.15 | -0.93% | $33.05 | -44.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-10-31 | $51.41 | 3.24% | $17.36 | -66.24% |
| 2014 | 2014-10-31 | $48.54 | 7.85% | $10.69 | -77.98% |
| 2013 | 2013-10-31 | $29.69 | 6.75% | $6.84 | -76.96% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $23.61 | 6.49% | $16.71 | -29.20% |
| 2011 | 2011-10-31 | $22.57 | 8.01% | $1.76 | -92.22% |
| 2010 | 2010-10-31 | $21.98 | 9.56% | $19.87 | -9.62% |
| 2009 | 2009-10-31 | $17.85 | 14.71% | $33.20 | 86.00% |
| 2008 | 2008-10-31 | $10.15 | 16.49% | $3.02 | -70.24% |
| 2007 | 2007-10-31 | $22.91 | 11.86% | $1.53 | -93.34% |
| 2006 | 2006-10-31 | $9.75 | 11.12% | $4.51 | -53.72% |
| 2005 | 2005-10-31 | $9.62 | 8.26% | $4.75 | -50.57% |
| 2004 | 2004-10-31 | $10.65 | 7.65% | $13.76 | 29.24% |
| 2003 | 2003-10-31 | $10.80 | 5.52% | $13.28 | 23.00% |
| 2002 | 2002-10-31 | $7.41 | 1.46% | $8.08 | 9.05% |
| 2001 | 2001-10-31 | $6.90 | -2.09% | $-3.22 | -146.63% |
| 2000 | 2000-10-31 | $6.90 | -2.55% | $3.45 | -50.04% |
| $8.22 - $8.77 | 47 |
| $8.77 - $9.31 | 153 |
| $9.31 - $9.86 | 225 |
| $9.86 - $10.40 | 242 |
| $10.40 - $10.94 | 143 |
| $10.94 - $11.49 | 97 |
| $11.49 - $12.03 | 46 |
| $12.03 - $12.57 | 27 |
| $12.57 - $13.12 | 8 |
| $13.12 - $13.66 | 5 |
| $13.66 - $14.20 | 3 |
| $14.20 - $14.75 | 1 |
| $14.75 - $15.29 | 1 |
| $15.29 - $15.84 | 0 |
| $15.84 - $16.38 | 1 |
| $16.38 - $16.92 | 0 |
| $16.92 - $17.47 | 0 |
| $17.47 - $18.01 | 0 |
| $18.01 - $18.55 | 0 |
| $18.55 - $19.10 | 0 |