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Calavo Growers, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$21.52
5Y Range9.68 – 12.82
5Y Selected11.25
(-) Safety Margin83.64%
5Y Buy Price$1.84
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.45%
10Y Range9.04 – 11.39
10Y Selected10.21
(-) Safety Margin83.64%
10Y Buy Price$1.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.23%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4903
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0175
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4784
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5675
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6886
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4987
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0155
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1360
Safety Score0.1636

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-7.88%-6.56%-5.24%-3.92%-2.60%-1.28%0.04%1.36%2.68%4.00%
Revenue609.40569.41539.57518.41504.92498.46498.65505.43518.98539.73
EBITDA29.0127.1125.6824.6824.0423.7323.7424.0624.7025.69
D&A-7.99-7.47-7.08-6.80-6.62-6.54-6.54-6.63-6.81-7.08
EBIT21.0219.6418.6117.8817.4117.1917.2017.4317.9018.61
Pro forma Taxes-7.81-7.30-6.92-6.64-6.47-6.39-6.39-6.48-6.65-6.92
NOPAT13.2112.3411.6911.2310.9410.8010.8110.9511.2511.70
Capital Expenditures-9.80-9.16-8.68-8.34-8.12-8.02-8.02-8.13-8.35-8.68
NWC Investment2.571.971.471.040.670.32-0.01-0.33-0.67-1.02
(+) D&A7.997.477.086.806.626.546.546.636.817.08
Free Cash Flow13.9712.6211.5610.7410.119.649.329.129.049.07
Diluted Shares Outstanding17,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.0017,872,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricOct-25Oct-26Oct-27Oct-28Oct-29Oct-30Oct-31Oct-32Oct-33Oct-34
Period Start7/31/2511/1/2511/1/2611/1/2711/1/2811/1/2911/1/3011/1/3111/1/3211/1/33
Period End10/31/2510/31/2610/31/2710/31/2810/31/2910/31/3010/31/3110/31/3210/31/3310/31/34
Mid-Point9/15/255/2/265/2/275/1/285/2/295/2/305/2/315/1/325/2/335/2/34
Time (t)0.100.291.292.293.294.295.296.297.298.29
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.01%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.890.820.750.690.630.580.530.49
PV UFCF13.8512.3110.338.807.596.645.885.274.794.41
Raw: 145.44
104.56
Raw: 130.49
60.70

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value157.43140.55
(-) Net Debt-37.70-37.70
Equity Value195.13178.25
(/) Shares Out17.8717.87
Fair Value$10.92$9.97
(-) Safety Margin83.64%83.64%
Buy Price$1.79$1.63
Current Price$21.52$21.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-91.70%-92.42%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.880.800.730.660.600.550.500.45
PV UFCF13.8312.2710.218.627.376.385.604.984.484.09
Raw: 119.45
82.96
Raw: 107.18
46.01

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value135.26123.84
(-) Net Debt-37.70-37.70
Equity Value172.96161.54
(/) Shares Out17.8717.87
Fair Value$9.68$9.04
(-) Safety Margin83.64%83.64%
Buy Price$1.58$1.48
Current Price$21.52$21.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-92.64%-93.13%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.900.840.770.720.660.610.570.52
PV UFCF13.8612.3410.468.987.826.906.175.595.124.76
Raw: 185.37
138.00
Raw: 166.32
83.89

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value191.47165.89
(-) Net Debt-37.70-37.70
Equity Value229.17203.59
(/) Shares Out17.8717.87
Fair Value$12.82$11.39
(-) Safety Margin83.64%83.64%
Buy Price$2.10$1.86
Current Price$21.52$21.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-90.25%-91.34%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$21.52
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH92.91%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue1,338.272,581.704,980.469,607.9918,535.1435,756.8568,979.90133,071.76256,713.82495,236.42
Constant Implied Growth92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.130.260.500.961.853.586.9013.3125.6749.52
Discount Factor0.940.820.750.690.630.580.530.490.450.41
Present Value of Implied FCF0.130.210.370.661.172.073.666.4711.4320.22

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-10-31$86.73-10.59%$29.33-66.18%
20182018-10-31$97.00-3.29%$24.03-75.23%
20172017-10-31$73.700.28%$14.62-80.16%
20162016-10-31$59.15-0.93%$33.05-44.13%
20152015-10-31$51.413.24%$17.36-66.24%
20142014-10-31$48.547.85%$10.69-77.98%
20132013-10-31$29.696.75%$6.84-76.96%
20122012-10-31$23.616.49%$16.71-29.20%
20112011-10-31$22.578.01%$1.76-92.22%
20102010-10-31$21.989.56%$19.87-9.62%
20092009-10-31$17.8514.71%$33.2086.00%
20082008-10-31$10.1516.49%$3.02-70.24%
20072007-10-31$22.9111.86%$1.53-93.34%
20062006-10-31$9.7511.12%$4.51-53.72%
20052005-10-31$9.628.26%$4.75-50.57%
20042004-10-31$10.657.65%$13.7629.24%
20032003-10-31$10.805.52%$13.2823.00%
20022002-10-31$7.411.46%$8.089.05%
20012001-10-31$6.90-2.09%$-3.22-146.63%
20002000-10-31$6.90-2.55%$3.45-50.04%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$10.15
Median
$10.02
10th Percentile
$8.98
90th Percentile
$11.43

Fair Value Distribution

$8.22 - $8.77
47
$8.77 - $9.31
153
$9.31 - $9.86
225
$9.86 - $10.40
242
$10.40 - $10.94
143
$10.94 - $11.49
97
$11.49 - $12.03
46
$12.03 - $12.57
27
$12.57 - $13.12
8
$13.12 - $13.66
5
$13.66 - $14.20
3
$14.20 - $14.75
1
$14.75 - $15.29
1
$15.29 - $15.84
0
$15.84 - $16.38
1
$16.38 - $16.92
0
$16.92 - $17.47
0
$17.47 - $18.01
0
$18.01 - $18.55
0
$18.55 - $19.10
0