Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $44.21 |
| 5Y Range | 33.31 – 50.07 |
| 5Y Selected | 41.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.57 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -80.62% |
| 10Y Range | 36.21 – 53.02 |
| 10Y Selected | 44.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $9.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.26% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3317 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7406 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2895 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1239 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2835 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1071 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1441 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7577 |
| Safety Score | 0.2055 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.91% | 4.81% | 4.71% | 4.61% | 4.51% | 4.41% | 4.30% | 4.20% | 4.10% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 540.88 | 566.91 | 593.62 | 620.99 | 648.98 | 677.58 | 706.75 | 736.46 | 766.67 | 797.33 |
| EBITDA | 117.52 | 123.18 | 128.98 | 134.93 | 141.01 | 147.22 | 153.56 | 160.02 | 166.58 | 173.24 |
| D&A | -28.12 | -29.48 | -30.87 | -32.29 | -33.75 | -35.23 | -36.75 | -38.29 | -39.86 | -41.46 |
| EBIT | 89.40 | 93.70 | 98.11 | 102.64 | 107.26 | 111.99 | 116.81 | 121.72 | 126.72 | 131.78 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -25.03 | -26.23 | -27.47 | -28.73 | -30.03 | -31.35 | -32.70 | -34.08 | -35.48 | -36.89 |
| NOPAT | 64.37 | 67.47 | 70.65 | 73.90 | 77.23 | 80.64 | 84.11 | 87.64 | 91.24 | 94.89 |
| Capital Expenditures | -20.20 | -21.18 | -22.17 | -23.20 | -24.24 | -25.31 | -26.40 | -27.51 | -28.64 | -29.78 |
| NWC Investment | -3.26 | -3.35 | -3.44 | -3.53 | -3.61 | -3.68 | -3.76 | -3.83 | -3.89 | -3.95 |
| (+) D&A | 28.12 | 29.48 | 30.87 | 32.29 | 33.75 | 35.23 | 36.75 | 38.29 | 39.86 | 41.46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 69.02 | 72.41 | 75.90 | 79.47 | 83.13 | 86.88 | 90.70 | 94.60 | 98.57 | 102.61 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 | 30,295,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 68.43 | 69.57 | 66.84 | 64.15 | 61.51 | 58.92 | 56.38 | 53.90 | 51.48 | 49.12 | Raw: 1,264.94 896.01 |
Raw: 1,561.39 715.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,226.50 | 1,315.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 20.01 | 20.01 |
| Equity Value | 1,206.49 | 1,295.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.30 | 30.30 |
| Fair Value | $39.82 | $42.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $8.18 | $8.79 |
| Current Price | $44.21 | $44.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.49% | -80.12% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 68.36 | 69.28 | 65.95 | 62.72 | 59.59 | 56.57 | 53.64 | 50.82 | 48.09 | 45.47 | Raw: 1,029.27 703.21 |
Raw: 1,270.50 536.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,029.12 | 1,117.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 20.01 | 20.01 |
| Equity Value | 1,009.11 | 1,097.06 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.30 | 30.30 |
| Fair Value | $33.31 | $36.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $6.84 | $7.44 |
| Current Price | $44.21 | $44.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.52% | -83.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 68.49 | 69.87 | 67.74 | 65.62 | 63.50 | 61.39 | 59.29 | 57.21 | 55.14 | 53.10 | Raw: 1,635.84 1,201.77 |
Raw: 2,019.22 1,005.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,536.98 | 1,626.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 20.01 | 20.01 |
| Equity Value | 1,516.97 | 1,606.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 30.30 | 30.30 |
| Fair Value | $50.07 | $53.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.45% | 79.45% |
| Buy Price | $10.29 | $10.90 |
| Current Price | $44.21 | $44.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.72% | -75.35% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,211.61 | 2,761.32 | 6,293.20 | 14,342.54 | 32,687.41 | 74,496.34 | 169,781.08 | 386,940.03 | 881,856.73 | 2,009,797.99 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% | 127.91% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.12 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 1.43 | 3.27 | 7.45 | 16.98 | 38.69 | 88.19 | 200.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.47 | 0.97 | 2.03 | 4.24 | 8.87 | 18.52 | 38.69 | 80.83 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $30.01 | 6.13% | $24.80 | -17.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $25.89 | 7.40% | $20.16 | -22.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $25.75 | 6.10% | $24.96 | -3.08% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $22.40 | 3.37% | $14.96 | -33.23% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $17.64 | 2.67% | $16.85 | -4.50% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $17.83 | 5.85% | $13.01 | -27.02% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $19.91 | 4.43% | $14.29 | -28.23% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $10.63 | 1.19% | $10.55 | -0.78% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.20 | -7.26% | $0.65 | -92.91% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.06 | -11.29% | $1.15 | -89.60% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.62 | -9.40% | $11.04 | 14.72% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5.51 | -3.34% | $5.25 | -4.66% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $9.93 | -2.24% | $11.91 | 19.97% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $15.70 | -4.74% | $9.94 | -36.66% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $11.06 | -5.26% | $7.70 | -30.38% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $13.29 | -1.71% | $-0.53 | -104.00% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $11.50 | 7.68% | $8.19 | -28.75% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $7.75 | 9.66% | $4.02 | -48.11% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $15.90 | 8.17% | $-14.01 | -188.10% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $36.44 | -3.05% | $-15.84 | -143.48% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $75.38 | -19.21% | $-21.96 | -129.14% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $21.75 | -20.52% | $4.40 | -79.76% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $15.97 | -0.91% | $15.95 | -0.13% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $7.12 | 17.28% | $18.81 | 164.23% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $6.29 | 28.39% | $24.22 | 285.07% |
| $28.16 - $31.72 | 8 |
| $31.72 - $35.28 | 71 |
| $35.28 - $38.84 | 198 |
| $38.84 - $42.40 | 190 |
| $42.40 - $45.97 | 188 |
| $45.97 - $49.53 | 147 |
| $49.53 - $53.09 | 80 |
| $53.09 - $56.65 | 48 |
| $56.65 - $60.21 | 31 |
| $60.21 - $63.77 | 14 |
| $63.77 - $67.33 | 9 |
| $67.33 - $70.89 | 10 |
| $70.89 - $74.45 | 4 |
| $74.45 - $78.01 | 0 |
| $78.01 - $81.57 | 0 |
| $81.57 - $85.13 | 1 |
| $85.13 - $88.69 | 0 |
| $88.69 - $92.25 | 0 |
| $92.25 - $95.81 | 0 |
| $95.81 - $99.37 | 1 |