Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $305.10 |
| 5Y Range | 165.80 – 251.83 |
| 5Y Selected | 208.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.21% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $129.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.71% |
| 10Y Range | 208.38 – 314.68 |
| 10Y Selected | 261.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.21% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $161.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -47.03% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9198 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8754 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9683 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8232 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9590 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8542 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8975 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8139 |
| Safety Score | 0.6179 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 16.19% | 14.84% | 13.48% | 12.13% | 10.77% | 9.42% | 8.06% | 6.71% | 5.35% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,020.53 | 1,171.96 | 1,329.98 | 1,491.29 | 1,651.96 | 1,807.57 | 1,953.34 | 2,084.40 | 2,196.01 | 2,283.86 |
| EBITDA | 245.49 | 281.91 | 319.93 | 358.73 | 397.38 | 434.81 | 469.87 | 501.40 | 528.25 | 549.38 |
| D&A | -49.16 | -56.45 | -64.06 | -71.83 | -79.57 | -87.07 | -94.09 | -100.40 | -105.78 | -110.01 |
| EBIT | 196.33 | 225.46 | 255.86 | 286.90 | 317.81 | 347.74 | 375.78 | 401.00 | 422.47 | 439.37 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -52.02 | -59.74 | -67.80 | -76.02 | -84.21 | -92.14 | -99.57 | -106.26 | -111.95 | -116.42 |
| NOPAT | 144.31 | 165.72 | 188.06 | 210.87 | 233.59 | 255.60 | 276.21 | 294.74 | 310.52 | 322.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -22.87 | -26.27 | -29.81 | -33.42 | -37.03 | -40.51 | -43.78 | -46.72 | -49.22 | -51.19 |
| NWC Investment | -37.51 | -39.94 | -41.68 | -42.55 | -42.38 | -41.04 | -38.45 | -34.57 | -29.44 | -23.17 |
| (+) D&A | 49.16 | 56.45 | 64.06 | 71.83 | 79.57 | 87.07 | 94.09 | 100.40 | 105.78 | 110.01 |
| Free Cash Flow | 133.08 | 155.96 | 180.64 | 206.74 | 233.76 | 261.11 | 288.07 | 313.86 | 337.65 | 358.60 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 | 16,722,750.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 131.92 | 146.74 | 155.65 | 163.28 | 169.23 | 173.26 | 175.21 | 174.98 | 172.54 | 167.97 | Raw: 3,595.37 2,491.93 |
Raw: 5,515.40 2,473.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,258.75 | 4,104.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | -71.17 | -71.17 |
| Equity Value | 3,329.93 | 4,175.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.72 | 16.72 |
| Fair Value | $199.13 | $249.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.21% | 38.21% |
| Buy Price | $123.04 | $154.28 |
| Current Price | $305.10 | $305.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.67% | -49.43% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.85 | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 131.80 | 145.81 | 153.24 | 159.29 | 163.60 | 165.98 | 166.32 | 164.59 | 160.82 | 155.14 | Raw: 2,920.16 1,947.67 |
Raw: 4,479.60 1,846.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,701.41 | 3,413.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | -71.17 | -71.17 |
| Equity Value | 2,772.58 | 3,484.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.72 | 16.72 |
| Fair Value | $165.80 | $208.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.21% | 38.21% |
| Buy Price | $102.45 | $128.76 |
| Current Price | $305.10 | $305.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.42% | -57.80% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 132.05 | 147.69 | 158.12 | 167.41 | 175.11 | 180.94 | 184.67 | 186.13 | 185.24 | 181.99 | Raw: 4,663.13 3,359.73 |
Raw: 7,153.36 3,491.80 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,140.11 | 5,191.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | -71.17 | -71.17 |
| Equity Value | 4,211.28 | 5,262.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.72 | 16.72 |
| Fair Value | $251.83 | $314.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.21% | 38.21% |
| Buy Price | $155.61 | $194.44 |
| Current Price | $305.10 | $305.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.00% | -36.27% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,347.21 | 5,710.44 | 13,892.71 | 33,799.05 | 82,228.40 | 200,050.29 | 486,694.60 | 1,184,060.48 | 2,880,654.94 | 7,008,234.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% | 143.29% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.23 | 0.57 | 1.39 | 3.38 | 8.22 | 20.01 | 48.67 | 118.41 | 288.07 | 700.82 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.23 | 0.49 | 1.10 | 2.45 | 5.46 | 12.17 | 27.13 | 60.51 | 134.93 | 300.89 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $64.85 | 15.72% | $112.62 | 73.66% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $57.68 | 19.35% | $113.61 | 96.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $45.05 | 19.70% | $81.08 | 79.97% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $36.70 | 15.00% | $50.12 | 36.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $31.50 | 8.04% | $37.45 | 18.90% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $30.00 | 5.43% | $32.38 | 7.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $30.00 | 6.20% | $6.42 | -78.59% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $30.00 | 8.83% | $15.88 | -47.06% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $30.00 | 12.88% | $-0.39 | -101.30% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $30.00 | 15.23% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $160.30 - $178.43 | 8 |
| $178.43 - $196.55 | 42 |
| $196.55 - $214.67 | 96 |
| $214.67 - $232.80 | 155 |
| $232.80 - $250.92 | 179 |
| $250.92 - $269.04 | 180 |
| $269.04 - $287.17 | 121 |
| $287.17 - $305.29 | 83 |
| $305.29 - $323.41 | 53 |
| $323.41 - $341.54 | 32 |
| $341.54 - $359.66 | 21 |
| $359.66 - $377.78 | 11 |
| $377.78 - $395.91 | 4 |
| $395.91 - $414.03 | 3 |
| $414.03 - $432.15 | 3 |
| $432.15 - $450.28 | 4 |
| $450.28 - $468.40 | 1 |
| $468.40 - $486.52 | 1 |
| $486.52 - $504.65 | 2 |
| $504.65 - $522.77 | 1 |