Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $254.28 |
| 5Y Range | 226.04 – 344.50 |
| 5Y Selected | 285.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 43.26% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $161.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.34% |
| 10Y Range | 250.78 – 372.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 311.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 43.26% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $176.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.45% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9862 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9827 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2127 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5275 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9459 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8544 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9440 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8788 |
| Safety Score | 0.5674 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.11% | 12.10% | 11.08% | 10.07% | 9.06% | 8.05% | 7.04% | 6.02% | 5.01% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 42,861.98 | 48,046.28 | 53,371.44 | 58,746.74 | 64,068.94 | 69,224.99 | 74,095.48 | 78,558.86 | 82,496.17 | 85,796.01 |
| EBITDA | 13,042.41 | 14,619.93 | 16,240.32 | 17,875.96 | 19,495.44 | 21,064.37 | 22,546.40 | 23,904.56 | 25,102.64 | 26,106.74 |
| D&A | -4,615.63 | -5,173.91 | -5,747.35 | -6,326.19 | -6,899.32 | -7,454.55 | -7,979.04 | -8,459.68 | -8,883.67 | -9,239.02 |
| EBIT | 8,426.78 | 9,446.02 | 10,492.97 | 11,549.76 | 12,596.12 | 13,609.81 | 14,567.37 | 15,444.88 | 16,218.96 | 16,867.72 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -676.41 | -758.22 | -842.26 | -927.09 | -1,011.08 | -1,092.45 | -1,169.31 | -1,239.74 | -1,301.88 | -1,353.95 |
| NOPAT | 7,750.37 | 8,687.80 | 9,650.71 | 10,622.68 | 11,585.04 | 12,517.37 | 13,398.06 | 14,205.14 | 14,917.08 | 15,513.77 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,354.31 | -1,518.12 | -1,686.38 | -1,856.23 | -2,024.39 | -2,187.31 | -2,341.20 | -2,482.23 | -2,606.64 | -2,710.90 |
| NWC Investment | 1,589.97 | 1,659.53 | 1,704.62 | 1,720.67 | 1,703.67 | 1,650.49 | 1,559.08 | 1,428.76 | 1,260.36 | 1,056.30 |
| (+) D&A | 4,615.63 | 5,173.91 | 5,747.35 | 6,326.19 | 6,899.32 | 7,454.55 | 7,979.04 | 8,459.68 | 8,883.67 | 9,239.02 |
| Free Cash Flow | 12,601.65 | 14,003.11 | 15,416.29 | 16,813.31 | 18,163.65 | 19,435.10 | 20,594.97 | 21,611.34 | 22,454.48 | 23,098.19 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 | 967,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.54 | 4.54 | 5.54 | 6.54 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,492.40 | 13,359.91 | 13,481.62 | 13,477.17 | 13,345.40 | 13,088.76 | 12,713.24 | 12,228.13 | 11,635.53 | 10,970.95 | Raw: 281,779.21 198,211.62 |
Raw: 358,330.52 162,945.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 264,368.12 | 289,738.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,504.50 | 1,504.50 |
| Equity Value | 262,863.62 | 288,233.92 |
| (/) Shares Out | 967.00 | 967.00 |
| Fair Value | $271.83 | $298.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 43.26% | 43.26% |
| Buy Price | $154.24 | $169.13 |
| Current Price | $254.28 | $254.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.34% | -33.49% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,481.01 | 13,294.25 | 13,293.51 | 13,168.42 | 12,921.23 | 12,557.64 | 12,086.57 | 11,519.78 | 10,860.96 | 10,147.61 | Raw: 228,520.39 154,930.19 |
Raw: 290,602.81 121,673.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 220,088.60 | 244,004.47 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,504.50 | 1,504.50 |
| Equity Value | 218,584.10 | 242,499.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 967.00 | 967.00 |
| Fair Value | $226.04 | $250.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 43.26% | 43.26% |
| Buy Price | $128.26 | $142.29 |
| Current Price | $254.28 | $254.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.56% | -44.04% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 12,503.91 | 13,426.51 | 13,674.16 | 13,796.10 | 13,787.60 | 13,647.55 | 13,378.62 | 12,987.16 | 12,473.25 | 11,869.62 | Raw: 366,325.96 267,451.08 |
Raw: 465,846.19 230,246.34 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 334,639.35 | 361,790.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,504.50 | 1,504.50 |
| Equity Value | 333,134.85 | 360,286.32 |
| (/) Shares Out | 967.00 | 967.00 |
| Fair Value | $344.50 | $372.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 43.26% | 43.26% |
| Buy Price | $195.47 | $211.40 |
| Current Price | $254.28 | $254.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -23.13% | -16.86% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 99,635.95 | 246,231.65 | 608,515.61 | 1,503,832.82 | 3,716,442.31 | 9,184,493.97 | 22,697,763.73 | 56,093,289.40 | 138,624,102.03 | 342,583,611.51 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% | 147.13% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.96 | 24.62 | 60.85 | 150.38 | 371.64 | 918.45 | 2,269.78 | 5,609.33 | 13,862.41 | 34,258.36 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 9.61 | 21.53 | 48.78 | 110.49 | 250.29 | 566.96 | 1,284.28 | 2,906.66 | 6,584.23 | 14,914.76 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $182.31 | 12.96% | $113.99 | -37.47% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $151.97 | 14.03% | $100.46 | -33.89% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $113.91 | 14.57% | $85.92 | -24.57% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $79.10 | 15.56% | $69.81 | -11.75% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $68.44 | 16.44% | $42.29 | -38.20% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $56.45 | 18.04% | $36.68 | -35.02% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $60.53 | 18.15% | $28.17 | -53.46% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $43.03 | 18.74% | $32.66 | -24.11% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $29.20 | 20.13% | $26.99 | -7.57% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $32.28 | 22.20% | $6.36 | -80.29% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $16.30 | 24.81% | $19.16 | 17.57% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $6.65 | 24.48% | $15.19 | 128.35% |
| 2008 | 2008-01-31 | $12.98 | 22.50% | $13.65 | 5.19% |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | $10.96 | 22.81% | $7.81 | -28.76% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | $10.26 | 26.06% | $7.56 | -26.28% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | $3.42 | 32.77% | $9.57 | 179.86% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $4.30 | 34.69% | $9.54 | 121.79% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $4.30 | 20.00% | $1.12 | -73.95% |
| 2002 | 2002-01-31 | $4.30 | 15.39% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-01-31 | $4.30 | 21.84% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| $211.47 - $240.02 | 46 |
| $240.02 - $268.57 | 171 |
| $268.57 - $297.13 | 278 |
| $297.13 - $325.68 | 199 |
| $325.68 - $354.23 | 136 |
| $354.23 - $382.78 | 80 |
| $382.78 - $411.33 | 45 |
| $411.33 - $439.88 | 24 |
| $439.88 - $468.43 | 10 |
| $468.43 - $496.98 | 3 |
| $496.98 - $525.53 | 1 |
| $525.53 - $554.08 | 3 |
| $554.08 - $582.63 | 0 |
| $582.63 - $611.19 | 0 |
| $611.19 - $639.74 | 1 |
| $639.74 - $668.29 | 1 |
| $668.29 - $696.84 | 0 |
| $696.84 - $725.39 | 1 |
| $725.39 - $753.94 | 0 |
| $753.94 - $782.49 | 1 |