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Crane Company

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$191.75
5Y Range55.44 – 78.31
5Y Selected66.88
(-) Safety Margin84.24%
5Y Buy Price$10.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.50%
10Y Range51.85 – 69.63
10Y Selected60.74
(-) Safety Margin84.24%
10Y Buy Price$9.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-95.01%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3867
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4526
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0052
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2571
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0014
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3284
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0223
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0634
Safety Score0.1576

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-8.29%-6.92%-5.56%-4.19%-2.83%-1.46%-0.10%1.27%2.63%4.00%
Revenue1,954.541,819.211,718.091,646.051,599.511,576.121,574.601,594.581,636.591,702.06
EBITDA392.87365.67345.34330.86321.51316.81316.50320.52328.96342.12
D&A-55.77-51.91-49.02-46.97-45.64-44.97-44.93-45.50-46.70-48.56
EBIT337.11313.76296.32283.90275.87271.84271.58275.02282.27293.56
Pro forma Taxes-90.85-84.56-79.86-76.51-74.35-73.26-73.19-74.12-76.07-79.11
NOPAT246.25229.20216.46207.39201.52198.58198.39200.90206.20214.44
Capital Expenditures-38.05-35.42-33.45-32.05-31.14-30.68-30.65-31.04-31.86-33.14
NWC Investment42.7932.7824.4917.4511.275.660.37-4.84-10.18-15.86
(+) D&A55.7751.9149.0246.9745.6444.9744.9345.5046.7048.56
Free Cash Flow306.76278.47256.53239.76227.29218.53213.03210.52210.86214.02
Diluted Shares Outstanding58,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.0058,350,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.23%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF304.10267.77226.10193.53168.17148.20132.42119.95110.12102.45
Raw: 3,381.34
2,395.16
Raw: 3,183.79
1,459.17

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,554.823,231.98
(-) Net Debt-202.30-202.30
Equity Value3,757.123,434.28
(/) Shares Out58.3558.35
Fair Value$64.39$58.86
(-) Safety Margin84.24%84.24%
Buy Price$10.15$9.28
Current Price$191.75$191.75
Upside (to Buy Price)-94.71%-95.16%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.73%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF303.82266.67223.13189.23162.94142.29125.98113.08102.8894.84
Raw: 2,761.91
1,886.96
Raw: 2,600.55
1,098.30

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value3,032.762,823.18
(-) Net Debt-202.30-202.30
Equity Value3,235.063,025.48
(/) Shares Out58.3558.35
Fair Value$55.44$51.85
(-) Safety Margin84.24%84.24%
Buy Price$8.74$8.17
Current Price$191.75$191.75
Upside (to Buy Price)-95.44%-95.74%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.73%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF304.38268.88229.14197.96173.61154.41139.25127.30117.95110.75
Raw: 4,346.70
3,193.32
Raw: 4,092.76
2,037.09

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,367.293,860.73
(-) Net Debt-202.30-202.30
Equity Value4,569.594,063.03
(/) Shares Out58.3558.35
Fair Value$78.31$69.63
(-) Safety Margin84.24%84.24%
Buy Price$12.34$10.97
Current Price$191.75$191.75
Upside (to Buy Price)-93.56%-94.28%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$191.75
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH143.03%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue5,512.1613,396.1932,556.7279,122.54192,291.33467,325.221,135,739.472,760,185.206,708,072.1516,302,613.34
Constant Implied Growth143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%143.03%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.551.343.267.9119.2346.73113.57276.02670.811,630.26
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.511.082.415.3711.9526.6359.32132.13294.34655.68

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$86.38-6.76%$60.17-30.34%
20182018-12-31$72.18-14.97%$28.14-61.02%
20172017-12-31$89.22-15.96%$31.58-64.60%
20162016-12-31$72.12-6.75%$46.44-35.61%
20152015-12-31$47.842.97%$48.491.36%
20142014-12-31$58.704.82%$61.013.94%
20132013-12-31$67.252.35%$50.16-25.42%
20122012-12-31$46.280.33%$55.0118.87%
20112011-12-31$46.711.41%$27.31-41.54%
20102010-12-31$41.072.51%$19.52-52.46%
20092009-12-31$30.625.71%$40.0630.84%
20082008-12-31$17.245.25%$43.29151.09%
20072007-12-31$42.902.10%$49.1314.51%
20062006-12-31$36.64-1.34%$31.64-13.64%
20052005-12-31$35.27-1.07%$35.13-0.40%
20042004-12-31$28.843.36%$21.88-24.14%
20032003-12-31$30.748.63%$45.2347.14%
20022002-12-31$19.9310.67%$64.77224.98%
20012001-12-31$25.649.79%$58.62128.62%
20002000-12-31$28.447.51%$37.8633.13%
19991999-12-31$19.885.68%$69.44249.32%
19981998-12-31$30.193.82%$29.95-0.79%
19971997-12-31$28.92-3.96%$15.85-45.19%
19961996-12-31$19.33-5.21%$8.37-56.70%
19951995-12-31$16.39-4.47%$10.17-37.97%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$60.31
Median
$59.12
10th Percentile
$51.59
90th Percentile
$69.70

Fair Value Distribution

$44.53 - $47.28
14
$47.28 - $50.04
33
$50.04 - $52.79
96
$52.79 - $55.54
121
$55.54 - $58.29
185
$58.29 - $61.04
166
$61.04 - $63.79
118
$63.79 - $66.55
99
$66.55 - $69.30
59
$69.30 - $72.05
38
$72.05 - $74.80
22
$74.80 - $77.55
16
$77.55 - $80.30
6
$80.30 - $83.05
12
$83.05 - $85.81
6
$85.81 - $88.56
3
$88.56 - $91.31
2
$91.31 - $94.06
3
$94.06 - $96.81
0
$96.81 - $99.56
1