Capital One Financial Corporation

Fair Value Summary

Current Price	$239.83
5Y Range	2,262.31 – 3,373.03
5Y Selected	2,817.67
(-) Safety Margin	81.04%
5Y Buy Price	$534.23
Upside (to Buy Price)	122.75%
10Y Range	1,877.19 – 2,567.06
10Y Selected	2,222.13
(-) Safety Margin	81.04%
10Y Buy Price	$421.32
Upside (to Buy Price)	75.67%

Company Predictability & Safety

Metric	Value
Revenue R2 (5Y)	0.9293
Revenue R2 (10Y)	0.7908
Net Income R2 (5Y)	0.0212
Net Income R2 (10Y)	0.1295
EBITDA R2 (5Y)	0.0277
EBITDA R2 (10Y)	0.1189
FCF R2 (5Y)	0.2393
FCF R2 (10Y)	0.5338

Safety Score	0.1896

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
% Growth	15.43%	14.16%	12.89%	11.62%	10.35%	9.08%	7.81%	6.54%	5.27%	4.00%
Revenue	62,262.89	71,081.63	80,246.37	89,573.24	98,846.15	107,823.22	116,245.72	123,849.27	130,376.70	135,591.77
EBITDA	16,459.73	18,791.04	21,213.81	23,679.45	26,130.83	28,503.99	30,730.55	32,740.61	34,466.20	35,844.84
D&A	-5,168.40	-5,900.44	-6,661.20	-7,435.42	-8,205.15	-8,950.34	-9,649.48	-10,280.65	-10,822.49	-11,255.38
EBIT	11,291.33	12,890.60	14,552.62	16,244.04	17,925.67	19,553.66	21,081.07	22,459.97	23,643.71	24,589.46
Pro forma Taxes	-2,803.82	-3,200.94	-3,613.65	-4,033.65	-4,451.23	-4,855.48	-5,234.77	-5,577.17	-5,871.11	-6,105.95
NOPAT	8,487.51	9,689.66	10,938.97	12,210.38	13,474.44	14,698.17	15,846.30	16,882.80	17,772.60	18,483.51
Capital Expenditures	-1,513.48	-1,727.85	-1,950.62	-2,177.34	-2,402.74	-2,620.96	-2,825.69	-3,010.52	-3,169.18	-3,295.95
NWC Investment	60,137.69	63,705.19	66,204.60	67,375.81	66,986.05	64,848.92	60,842.78	54,926.84	47,153.13	37,672.82
(+) D&A	5,168.40	5,900.44	6,661.20	7,435.42	8,205.15	8,950.34	9,649.48	10,280.65	10,822.49	11,255.38
Free Cash Flow	72,280.12	77,567.44	81,854.15	84,844.27	86,262.90	85,876.47	83,512.88	79,079.77	72,579.04	64,115.76
Diluted Shares Outstanding	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00	478,125,000.00

Discounting Periods

Metric	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34
Period Start	9/30/25	1/1/26	1/1/27	1/1/28	1/1/29	1/1/30	1/1/31	1/1/32	1/1/33	1/1/34
Period End	12/31/25	12/31/26	12/31/27	12/31/28	12/31/29	12/31/30	12/31/31	12/31/32	12/31/33	12/31/34
Mid-Point	11/15/25	7/2/26	7/2/27	7/1/28	7/2/29	7/2/30	7/2/31	7/1/32	7/2/33	7/2/34
Time (t)	0.10	0.45	1.45	2.46	3.46	4.46	5.46	6.46	7.46	8.46
Valuation Date	1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.40%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.96	0.88	0.81	0.74	0.68	0.62	0.57	0.52	0.48
PV UFCF	71,653.46	74,586.79	72,145.02	68,484.64	63,823.11	58,238.65	51,912.72	45,057.69	37,905.13	30,692.68	Raw: 1,317,835.51 933,483.66	Raw: 979,494.37 448,914.38

Base Case Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	1,284,176.69	1,023,414.27
(-) Net Debt	-3,679.75	-3,679.75
Equity Value	1,287,856.44	1,027,094.02
(/) Shares Out	478.13	478.13
Fair Value	$2,693.56	$2,148.17
(-) Safety Margin	81.04%	81.04%
Buy Price	$510.70	$407.29
Current Price	$239.83	$239.83
Upside (to Buy Price)	112.94%	69.83%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.90%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.96	0.87	0.79	0.72	0.65	0.59	0.54	0.49	0.44
PV UFCF	71,588.12	74,281.17	71,196.81	66,964.57	61,839.68	55,916.24	49,389.86	42,478.61	35,410.87	28,412.59	Raw: 1,071,586.19 732,117.12	Raw: 796,467.10 336,375.34

Conservative Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	1,077,987.47	893,853.85
(-) Net Debt	-3,679.75	-3,679.75
Equity Value	1,081,667.22	897,533.60
(/) Shares Out	478.13	478.13
Fair Value	$2,262.31	$1,877.19
(-) Safety Margin	81.04%	81.04%
Buy Price	$428.93	$355.92
Current Price	$239.83	$239.83
Upside (to Buy Price)	78.85%	48.40%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.90%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.97	0.89	0.83	0.76	0.71	0.65	0.60	0.56	0.52
PV UFCF	71,719.48	74,896.50	73,114.76	70,053.70	65,889.31	60,680.26	54,589.49	47,819.31	40,600.51	33,179.31	Raw: 1,706,080.76 1,253,376.81	Raw: 1,268,061.51 631,152.20

Aggressive Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	1,609,050.56	1,223,694.83
(-) Net Debt	-3,679.75	-3,679.75
Equity Value	1,612,730.31	1,227,374.58
(/) Shares Out	478.13	478.13
Fair Value	$3,373.03	$2,567.06
(-) Safety Margin	81.04%	81.04%
Buy Price	$639.53	$486.71
Current Price	$239.83	$239.83
Upside (to Buy Price)	166.66%	102.94%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$239.83

WACC Used9.1%

IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH119.45%

Metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036
Implied Revenue	139,001.36	305,032.65	669,381.33	1,468,929.22	3,223,503.50	7,073,843.07	15,523,251.56	34,065,123.70	74,754,483.48	164,045,574.90
Constant Implied Growth	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%	119.45%
Implied Free Cash Flow	13.90	30.50	66.94	146.89	322.35	707.38	1,552.33	3,406.51	7,475.45	16,404.56
Discount Factor	0.93	0.81	0.74	0.68	0.62	0.57	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.40
Present Value of Implied FCF	12.93	24.62	49.53	99.62	200.38	403.05	810.72	1,630.72	3,280.13	6,597.83

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.

Year	Valuation Date	Actual Price	Realized Growth (5Y)	Calculated Fair Value	Valuation Delta
2019	2019-12-31	$102.91	20.06%	$1,074.26	943.89%
2018	2018-12-31	$75.59	14.67%	$610.01	707.00%
2017	2017-12-31	$99.58	6.84%	$454.74	356.66%
2016	2016-12-31	$87.24	3.51%	$285.01	226.70%
2015	2015-12-31	$72.18	6.28%	$255.74	254.30%
2014	2014-12-31	$82.55	10.91%	$301.78	265.57%
2013	2013-12-31	$76.61	11.92%	$335.51	337.94%
2012	2012-12-31	$57.93	10.43%	$287.10	395.61%
2011	2011-12-31	$42.29	6.57%	$214.70	407.69%
2010	2010-12-31	$42.56	2.81%	$192.99	353.46%
2009	2009-12-31	$38.34	0.35%	$40.39	5.34%
2008	2008-12-31	$31.89	2.05%	$69.22	117.07%
2007	2007-12-31	$47.26	-1.85%	$357.92	657.35%
2006	2006-12-31	$76.82	-4.78%	$6.11	-92.04%
2005	2005-12-31	$86.40	-5.69%	$80.58	-6.74%
2004	2004-12-31	$84.21	-4.83%	$154.41	83.36%
2003	2003-12-31	$61.29	1.35%	$64.52	5.26%
2002	2002-12-31	$29.72	3.07%	$104.85	252.78%
2001	2001-12-31	$53.95	2.91%	$35.50	-34.20%
2000	2000-12-31	$65.81	5.94%	$66.72	1.38%
1999	1999-12-31	$48.19	11.66%	$81.49	69.09%
1998	1998-12-31	$38.33	19.90%	$83.35	117.46%
1997	1997-12-31	$18.06	29.58%	$92.41	411.67%
1996	1996-12-31	$12.00	34.75%	$39.25	227.07%
1995	1995-12-31	$7.79	35.62%	$5.10	-34.47%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$2,190.01

Median
$2,151.43

10th Percentile
$1,865.93

90th Percentile
$2,583.50

Fair Value Distribution

$1,557.10 - $1,665.52	11
$1,665.52 - $1,773.95	25
$1,773.95 - $1,882.38	80
$1,882.38 - $1,990.80	129
$1,990.80 - $2,099.23	160
$2,099.23 - $2,207.66	179
$2,207.66 - $2,316.08	144
$2,316.08 - $2,424.51	86
$2,424.51 - $2,532.94	65
$2,532.94 - $2,641.36	52
$2,641.36 - $2,749.79	25
$2,749.79 - $2,858.22	24
$2,858.22 - $2,966.64	9
$2,966.64 - $3,075.07	4
$3,075.07 - $3,183.49	2
$3,183.49 - $3,291.92	1
$3,291.92 - $3,400.35	3
$3,400.35 - $3,508.77	0
$3,508.77 - $3,617.20	0
$3,617.20 - $3,725.63	1

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