Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.80 |
| 5Y Range | 0.79 – 1.55 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.85% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.09% |
| 10Y Range | 0.76 – 1.42 |
| 10Y Selected | 1.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.85% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.51% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1519 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0059 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0282 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0009 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1958 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1848 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1657 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1738 |
| Safety Score | 0.1415 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -15.18% | -13.05% | -10.92% | -8.79% | -6.66% | -4.53% | -2.39% | -0.26% | 1.87% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12.61 | 10.97 | 9.77 | 8.91 | 8.32 | 7.94 | 7.75 | 7.73 | 7.88 | 8.19 |
| EBITDA | 11.69 | 10.17 | 9.06 | 8.26 | 7.71 | 7.36 | 7.18 | 7.17 | 7.30 | 7.59 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 11.69 | 10.17 | 9.06 | 8.26 | 7.71 | 7.36 | 7.18 | 7.17 | 7.30 | 7.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 11.69 | 10.17 | 9.06 | 8.26 | 7.71 | 7.36 | 7.18 | 7.17 | 7.30 | 7.59 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -1.07 | -0.78 | -0.57 | -0.41 | -0.28 | -0.18 | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10.62 | 9.38 | 8.49 | 7.85 | 7.43 | 7.18 | 7.09 | 7.16 | 7.37 | 7.74 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 | 53,654,770.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.53 | 9.01 | 7.47 | 6.34 | 5.50 | 4.87 | 4.41 | 4.08 | 3.85 | 3.71 | Raw: 106.79 75.64 |
Raw: 111.30 51.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 114.49 | 110.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.11 | 56.11 |
| Equity Value | 58.38 | 54.66 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.65 | 53.65 |
| Fair Value | $1.09 | $1.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.85% | 85.85% |
| Buy Price | $0.15 | $0.14 |
| Current Price | $2.80 | $2.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.50% | -94.85% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.52 | 8.98 | 7.37 | 6.20 | 5.32 | 4.68 | 4.20 | 3.84 | 3.60 | 3.43 | Raw: 87.72 59.93 |
Raw: 91.42 38.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 98.32 | 96.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.11 | 56.11 |
| Equity Value | 42.21 | 40.64 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.65 | 53.65 |
| Fair Value | $0.79 | $0.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.85% | 85.85% |
| Buy Price | $0.11 | $0.11 |
| Current Price | $2.80 | $2.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.02% | -96.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10.54 | 9.05 | 7.57 | 6.48 | 5.67 | 5.07 | 4.64 | 4.33 | 4.12 | 4.01 | Raw: 136.08 99.97 |
Raw: 141.83 70.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 139.29 | 132.08 |
| (-) Net Debt | 56.11 | 56.11 |
| Equity Value | 83.19 | 75.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 53.65 | 53.65 |
| Fair Value | $1.55 | $1.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.85% | 85.85% |
| Buy Price | $0.22 | $0.20 |
| Current Price | $2.80 | $2.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.16% | -92.84% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 75.67 | 190.49 | 479.55 | 1,207.26 | 3,039.22 | 7,651.09 | 19,261.29 | 48,489.46 | 122,070.07 | 307,306.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% | 151.75% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.77 | 1.93 | 4.85 | 12.21 | 30.73 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 1.01 | 2.32 | 5.36 | 12.36 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3.22 | -10.27% | $4.57 | 41.90% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.77 | -33.84% | $-1.71 | -161.82% |
| $0.55 - $0.65 | 27 |
| $0.65 - $0.75 | 66 |
| $0.75 - $0.85 | 133 |
| $0.85 - $0.95 | 172 |
| $0.95 - $1.05 | 158 |
| $1.05 - $1.15 | 132 |
| $1.15 - $1.25 | 109 |
| $1.25 - $1.35 | 69 |
| $1.35 - $1.45 | 53 |
| $1.45 - $1.55 | 25 |
| $1.55 - $1.65 | 26 |
| $1.65 - $1.75 | 13 |
| $1.75 - $1.85 | 8 |
| $1.85 - $1.95 | 5 |
| $1.95 - $2.04 | 2 |
| $2.04 - $2.14 | 1 |
| $2.14 - $2.24 | 0 |
| $2.24 - $2.34 | 0 |
| $2.34 - $2.44 | 0 |
| $2.44 - $2.54 | 1 |