Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $430.15 |
| 5Y Range | 319.83 – 480.49 |
| 5Y Selected | 400.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $199.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.59% |
| 10Y Range | 346.54 – 507.38 |
| 10Y Selected | 426.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $213.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -50.48% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8628 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9768 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0307 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7517 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0129 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7837 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0396 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5474 |
| Safety Score | 0.4989 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.54% | 5.37% | 5.20% | 5.03% | 4.86% | 4.68% | 4.51% | 4.34% | 4.17% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,565.97 | 2,703.73 | 2,844.25 | 2,987.22 | 3,132.26 | 3,278.98 | 3,426.97 | 3,575.77 | 3,724.92 | 3,873.92 |
| EBITDA | 471.72 | 497.04 | 522.88 | 549.16 | 575.82 | 602.79 | 630.00 | 657.35 | 684.77 | 712.16 |
| D&A | -63.84 | -67.26 | -70.76 | -74.31 | -77.92 | -81.57 | -85.25 | -88.96 | -92.67 | -96.37 |
| EBIT | 407.88 | 429.78 | 452.12 | 474.84 | 497.90 | 521.22 | 544.74 | 568.40 | 592.11 | 615.79 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -94.11 | -99.16 | -104.32 | -109.56 | -114.88 | -120.26 | -125.69 | -131.15 | -136.62 | -142.08 |
| NOPAT | 313.77 | 330.61 | 347.80 | 365.28 | 383.02 | 400.96 | 419.05 | 437.25 | 455.49 | 473.71 |
| Capital Expenditures | -70.23 | -74.00 | -77.85 | -81.76 | -85.73 | -89.75 | -93.80 | -97.87 | -101.96 | -106.03 |
| NWC Investment | -1.21 | -1.24 | -1.26 | -1.29 | -1.31 | -1.32 | -1.33 | -1.34 | -1.34 | -1.34 |
| (+) D&A | 63.84 | 67.26 | 70.76 | 74.31 | 77.92 | 81.57 | 85.25 | 88.96 | 92.67 | 96.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 306.16 | 322.63 | 339.44 | 356.55 | 373.90 | 391.46 | 409.18 | 426.99 | 444.86 | 462.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 | 14,724,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.51 | 310.24 | 299.18 | 287.80 | 276.64 | 265.48 | 254.35 | 243.29 | 232.33 | 221.50 | Raw: 5,797.70 4,106.78 |
Raw: 7,174.73 3,288.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,584.13 | 5,982.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | -39.74 | -39.74 |
| Equity Value | 5,623.87 | 6,022.31 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.72 | 14.72 |
| Fair Value | $381.95 | $409.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.11% | 50.11% |
| Buy Price | $190.55 | $204.05 |
| Current Price | $430.15 | $430.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.70% | -52.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.23 | 308.96 | 295.25 | 281.41 | 268.04 | 254.89 | 241.99 | 229.36 | 217.04 | 205.05 | Raw: 4,702.27 3,212.63 |
Raw: 5,819.12 2,457.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,669.52 | 5,062.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | -39.74 | -39.74 |
| Equity Value | 4,709.26 | 5,102.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.72 | 14.72 |
| Fair Value | $319.83 | $346.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.11% | 50.11% |
| Buy Price | $159.56 | $172.89 |
| Current Price | $430.15 | $430.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.91% | -59.81% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 303.78 | 311.52 | 303.20 | 294.39 | 285.59 | 276.61 | 267.46 | 258.20 | 248.85 | 239.45 | Raw: 7,536.29 5,536.56 |
Raw: 9,326.26 4,641.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,035.05 | 7,431.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | -39.74 | -39.74 |
| Equity Value | 7,074.79 | 7,470.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.72 | 14.72 |
| Fair Value | $480.49 | $507.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 50.11% | 50.11% |
| Buy Price | $239.71 | $253.13 |
| Current Price | $430.15 | $430.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -44.27% | -41.15% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 5,754.47 | 13,085.25 | 29,754.88 | 67,660.39 | 153,854.70 | 349,854.17 | 795,542.41 | 1,809,004.40 | 4,113,541.75 | 9,353,888.63 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% | 127.39% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.58 | 1.31 | 2.98 | 6.77 | 15.39 | 34.99 | 79.55 | 180.90 | 411.35 | 935.39 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.54 | 1.06 | 2.20 | 4.59 | 9.56 | 19.93 | 41.55 | 86.60 | 180.50 | 376.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $439.26 | 5.30% | $281.55 | -35.90% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $283.28 | 5.22% | $270.36 | -4.56% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $243.02 | 6.24% | $115.07 | -52.65% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $160.41 | 7.08% | $113.67 | -29.14% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $149.80 | 7.63% | $153.47 | 2.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $105.67 | 7.08% | $71.71 | -32.14% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $76.62 | 6.64% | $128.57 | 67.81% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $68.59 | 7.06% | $98.66 | 43.84% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $51.21 | 6.48% | $134.32 | 162.29% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $63.51 | 7.67% | $51.19 | -19.40% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $47.97 | 9.68% | $139.74 | 191.31% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $39.77 | 10.51% | $79.07 | 98.81% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $55.88 | 10.53% | $61.30 | 9.70% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $36.98 | 9.03% | $60.46 | 63.49% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $49.68 | 9.15% | $40.23 | -19.03% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $33.56 | 10.28% | $64.39 | 91.86% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $23.05 | 12.08% | $15.69 | -31.91% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $17.68 | 27.03% | $40.93 | 131.48% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $16.95 | 32.21% | $53.88 | 217.86% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $16.81 | 23.08% | $37.95 | 125.79% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $14.31 | 7.65% | $-13.89 | -197.05% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $16.75 | -13.39% | $-8.58 | -151.24% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $20.72 | -9.94% | $5.47 | -73.59% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $18.25 | -0.24% | $4.40 | -75.88% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $19.44 | 5.53% | $-1.68 | -108.66% |
| $282.90 - $310.50 | 13 |
| $310.50 - $338.10 | 58 |
| $338.10 - $365.70 | 130 |
| $365.70 - $393.30 | 198 |
| $393.30 - $420.91 | 186 |
| $420.91 - $448.51 | 156 |
| $448.51 - $476.11 | 89 |
| $476.11 - $503.71 | 59 |
| $503.71 - $531.31 | 46 |
| $531.31 - $558.91 | 22 |
| $558.91 - $586.51 | 20 |
| $586.51 - $614.12 | 8 |
| $614.12 - $641.72 | 6 |
| $641.72 - $669.32 | 4 |
| $669.32 - $696.92 | 3 |
| $696.92 - $724.52 | 0 |
| $724.52 - $752.12 | 0 |
| $752.12 - $779.72 | 0 |
| $779.72 - $807.33 | 0 |
| $807.33 - $834.93 | 2 |