Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $57.80 |
| 5Y Range | 29.48 – 51.77 |
| 5Y Selected | 40.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.99% |
| 10Y Range | 27.25 – 45.50 |
| 10Y Selected | 36.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.04% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0977 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0720 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1169 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0610 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0641 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2006 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2095 |
| Safety Score | 0.1424 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -11.31% | -9.61% | -7.91% | -6.21% | -4.51% | -2.80% | -1.10% | 0.60% | 2.30% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 3,625.91 | 3,277.49 | 3,018.31 | 2,830.97 | 2,703.41 | 2,627.60 | 2,598.60 | 2,614.14 | 2,674.23 | 2,781.20 |
| EBITDA | 2,421.76 | 2,189.05 | 2,015.94 | 1,890.81 | 1,805.62 | 1,754.98 | 1,735.62 | 1,745.99 | 1,786.13 | 1,857.57 |
| D&A | -137.87 | -124.63 | -114.77 | -107.65 | -102.80 | -99.91 | -98.81 | -99.40 | -101.69 | -105.75 |
| EBIT | 2,283.88 | 2,064.42 | 1,901.17 | 1,783.17 | 1,702.82 | 1,655.07 | 1,636.81 | 1,646.59 | 1,684.44 | 1,751.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -428.36 | -387.20 | -356.58 | -334.45 | -319.38 | -310.42 | -307.00 | -308.83 | -315.93 | -328.57 |
| NOPAT | 1,855.52 | 1,677.22 | 1,544.59 | 1,448.72 | 1,383.45 | 1,344.65 | 1,329.81 | 1,337.76 | 1,368.51 | 1,423.25 |
| Capital Expenditures | -55.43 | -50.11 | -46.14 | -43.28 | -41.33 | -40.17 | -39.73 | -39.96 | -40.88 | -42.52 |
| NWC Investment | 116.67 | 87.91 | 65.39 | 47.27 | 32.18 | 19.13 | 7.32 | -3.92 | -15.16 | -26.99 |
| (+) D&A | 137.87 | 124.63 | 114.77 | 107.65 | 102.80 | 99.91 | 98.81 | 99.40 | 101.69 | 105.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,054.63 | 1,839.65 | 1,678.61 | 1,560.36 | 1,477.10 | 1,423.52 | 1,396.21 | 1,393.28 | 1,414.15 | 1,459.50 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 | 370,184,223.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,036.82 | 1,767.42 | 1,478.22 | 1,259.49 | 1,092.86 | 965.39 | 867.90 | 793.85 | 738.56 | 698.67 | Raw: 21,383.58 15,146.98 |
Raw: 21,128.82 9,683.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 22,781.78 | 21,382.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,617.03 | 8,617.03 |
| Equity Value | 14,164.76 | 12,765.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 370.18 | 370.18 |
| Fair Value | $38.26 | $34.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.76% | 85.76% |
| Buy Price | $5.45 | $4.91 |
| Current Price | $57.80 | $57.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.57% | -91.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,034.96 | 1,760.02 | 1,458.65 | 1,231.53 | 1,058.89 | 926.89 | 825.72 | 748.42 | 689.96 | 646.77 | Raw: 17,545.32 11,987.11 |
Raw: 17,336.28 7,321.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,531.18 | 18,703.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,617.03 | 8,617.03 |
| Equity Value | 10,914.15 | 10,086.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 370.18 | 370.18 |
| Fair Value | $29.48 | $27.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.76% | 85.76% |
| Buy Price | $4.20 | $3.88 |
| Current Price | $57.80 | $57.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.74% | -93.29% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,038.70 | 1,774.93 | 1,498.22 | 1,288.35 | 1,128.24 | 1,005.86 | 912.65 | 842.51 | 791.07 | 755.28 | Raw: 27,296.91 20,053.75 |
Raw: 26,971.69 13,424.62 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,782.17 | 25,460.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | 8,617.03 | 8,617.03 |
| Equity Value | 19,165.15 | 16,843.40 |
| (/) Shares Out | 370.18 | 370.18 |
| Fair Value | $51.77 | $45.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.76% | 85.76% |
| Buy Price | $7.37 | $6.48 |
| Current Price | $57.80 | $57.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.24% | -88.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 9,453.81 | 24,211.53 | 62,006.57 | 158,801.01 | 406,694.98 | 1,041,560.14 | 2,667,472.12 | 6,831,489.89 | 17,495,685.77 | 44,807,066.33 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% | 156.10% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.95 | 2.42 | 6.20 | 15.88 | 40.67 | 104.16 | 266.75 | 683.15 | 1,749.57 | 4,480.71 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.88 | 1.95 | 4.59 | 10.77 | 25.28 | 59.35 | 139.31 | 327.03 | 767.69 | 1,802.12 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $32.08 | 1.00% | $-7.55 | -123.54% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $15.75 | -27.02% | $-67.53 | -528.75% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $22.90 | -17.76% | $-51.74 | -325.96% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $15.25 | -23.93% | $-64.48 | -522.83% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $15.62 | -28.47% | $-16.18 | -203.60% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $27.50 | -12.87% | $113.45 | 312.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $35.62 | -26.94% | $-39.39 | -210.58% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $26.03 | -30.66% | $-132.39 | -608.60% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $22.05 | -36.21% | $-42.17 | -291.23% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $22.05 | 35.07% | $530.39 | 2,305.40% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $22.05 | 70.10% | $233.97 | 961.11% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $22.05 | 86.65% | $17.08 | -22.54% |
| $19.88 - $22.80 | 9 |
| $22.80 - $25.73 | 62 |
| $25.73 - $28.65 | 112 |
| $28.65 - $31.58 | 143 |
| $31.58 - $34.50 | 171 |
| $34.50 - $37.42 | 159 |
| $37.42 - $40.35 | 115 |
| $40.35 - $43.27 | 87 |
| $43.27 - $46.19 | 60 |
| $46.19 - $49.12 | 34 |
| $49.12 - $52.04 | 16 |
| $52.04 - $54.97 | 9 |
| $54.97 - $57.89 | 13 |
| $57.89 - $60.81 | 2 |
| $60.81 - $63.74 | 5 |
| $63.74 - $66.66 | 0 |
| $66.66 - $69.58 | 2 |
| $69.58 - $72.51 | 0 |
| $72.51 - $75.43 | 0 |
| $75.43 - $78.36 | 0 |