Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $357.17 |
| 5Y Range | 156.69 – 242.45 |
| 5Y Selected | 199.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.45% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $35.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.19% |
| 10Y Range | 175.18 – 263.45 |
| 10Y Selected | 219.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.45% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $38.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.22% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7080 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5876 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6124 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0343 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3597 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0262 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6629 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7555 |
| Safety Score | 0.1755 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.83% | 6.52% | 6.20% | 5.89% | 5.57% | 5.26% | 4.94% | 4.63% | 4.31% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 25,177.81 | 26,818.40 | 28,481.54 | 30,158.25 | 31,838.82 | 33,512.90 | 35,169.61 | 36,797.62 | 38,385.25 | 39,920.66 |
| EBITDA | 6,878.28 | 7,326.46 | 7,780.81 | 8,238.87 | 8,697.98 | 9,155.32 | 9,607.92 | 10,052.67 | 10,486.39 | 10,905.84 |
| D&A | -3,671.06 | -3,910.26 | -4,152.76 | -4,397.23 | -4,642.26 | -4,886.35 | -5,127.91 | -5,365.28 | -5,596.77 | -5,820.64 |
| EBIT | 3,207.22 | 3,416.20 | 3,628.06 | 3,841.64 | 4,055.72 | 4,268.97 | 4,480.00 | 4,687.38 | 4,889.62 | 5,085.21 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -376.08 | -400.59 | -425.43 | -450.48 | -475.58 | -500.59 | -525.33 | -549.65 | -573.37 | -596.30 |
| NOPAT | 2,831.14 | 3,015.61 | 3,202.63 | 3,391.16 | 3,580.14 | 3,768.38 | 3,954.67 | 4,137.73 | 4,316.26 | 4,488.91 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,827.87 | -3,012.13 | -3,198.93 | -3,387.25 | -3,576.00 | -3,764.03 | -3,950.11 | -4,132.96 | -4,311.27 | -4,483.72 |
| NWC Investment | -131.97 | -134.49 | -136.34 | -137.46 | -137.77 | -137.24 | -135.82 | -133.46 | -130.15 | -125.87 |
| (+) D&A | 3,671.06 | 3,910.26 | 4,152.76 | 4,397.23 | 4,642.26 | 4,886.35 | 5,127.91 | 5,365.28 | 5,596.77 | 5,820.64 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,542.35 | 3,779.25 | 4,020.11 | 4,263.69 | 4,508.63 | 4,753.47 | 4,996.66 | 5,236.60 | 5,471.60 | 5,699.95 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 | 314,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,511.64 | 3,630.86 | 3,540.18 | 3,441.57 | 3,335.79 | 3,223.65 | 3,105.99 | 2,983.68 | 2,857.60 | 2,728.61 | Raw: 67,782.32 48,013.35 |
Raw: 85,692.58 39,273.97 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 65,473.38 | 71,633.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,774.25 | 5,774.25 |
| Equity Value | 59,699.13 | 65,859.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| Fair Value | $190.12 | $209.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.45% | 82.45% |
| Buy Price | $33.37 | $36.81 |
| Current Price | $357.17 | $357.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.66% | -89.69% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,508.44 | 3,615.65 | 3,493.33 | 3,365.18 | 3,232.12 | 3,095.10 | 2,955.05 | 2,812.90 | 2,669.56 | 2,525.91 | Raw: 55,267.24 37,759.06 |
Raw: 69,870.61 29,508.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 54,973.79 | 60,781.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,774.25 | 5,774.25 |
| Equity Value | 49,199.54 | 55,007.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| Fair Value | $156.69 | $175.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.45% | 82.45% |
| Buy Price | $27.50 | $30.74 |
| Current Price | $357.17 | $357.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -92.30% | -91.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,514.88 | 3,646.27 | 3,588.10 | 3,520.42 | 3,443.78 | 3,358.80 | 3,266.15 | 3,166.56 | 3,060.80 | 2,949.67 | Raw: 87,375.82 64,190.88 |
Raw: 110,463.30 54,980.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 81,904.32 | 88,496.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 5,774.25 | 5,774.25 |
| Equity Value | 76,130.07 | 82,722.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| Fair Value | $242.45 | $263.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 82.45% | 82.45% |
| Buy Price | $42.55 | $46.23 |
| Current Price | $357.17 | $357.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.09% | -87.06% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 61,602.22 | 149,080.08 | 360,780.34 | 873,104.27 | 2,112,950.70 | 5,113,433.54 | 12,374,733.87 | 29,947,399.78 | 72,474,023.52 | 175,390,321.81 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% | 142.00% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.16 | 14.91 | 36.08 | 87.31 | 211.30 | 511.34 | 1,237.47 | 2,994.74 | 7,247.40 | 17,539.03 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.73 | 12.03 | 26.69 | 59.21 | 131.34 | 291.35 | 646.28 | 1,433.60 | 3,180.06 | 7,054.11 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $42.00 | 9.05% | $45.45 | 8.21% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $42.00 | 8.97% | $84.89 | 102.12% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $42.00 | 3.85% | $30.32 | -27.81% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $42.00 | -0.32% | $32.27 | -23.18% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $42.00 | 0.02% | $-13.54 | -132.24% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $42.00 | 1.16% | $-80.41 | -291.45% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $42.00 | 2.89% | $39.52 | -5.90% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $42.00 | 3.58% | $2.38 | -94.33% |
| $135.18 - $151.88 | 7 |
| $151.88 - $168.57 | 57 |
| $168.57 - $185.27 | 148 |
| $185.27 - $201.96 | 215 |
| $201.96 - $218.65 | 182 |
| $218.65 - $235.35 | 136 |
| $235.35 - $252.04 | 98 |
| $252.04 - $268.74 | 58 |
| $268.74 - $285.43 | 35 |
| $285.43 - $302.12 | 26 |
| $302.12 - $318.82 | 22 |
| $318.82 - $335.51 | 6 |
| $335.51 - $352.21 | 3 |
| $352.21 - $368.90 | 2 |
| $368.90 - $385.59 | 1 |
| $385.59 - $402.29 | 0 |
| $402.29 - $418.98 | 2 |
| $418.98 - $435.68 | 0 |
| $435.68 - $452.37 | 0 |
| $452.37 - $469.06 | 2 |