Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $547.15 |
| 5Y Range | 1,329.62 – 2,059.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,694.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.71% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1,021.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 86.72% |
| 10Y Range | 1,523.03 – 2,304.40 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,913.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.71% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1,153.78 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 110.87% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7976 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8794 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9690 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8191 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9931 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8897 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3727 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7428 |
| Safety Score | 0.6029 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.33% | 11.40% | 10.48% | 9.55% | 8.63% | 7.70% | 6.78% | 5.85% | 4.93% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 17,905.83 | 19,947.31 | 22,037.00 | 24,141.74 | 26,224.14 | 28,243.56 | 30,157.19 | 31,921.48 | 33,493.66 | 34,833.40 |
| EBITDA | 4,639.36 | 5,168.31 | 5,709.74 | 6,255.07 | 6,794.62 | 7,317.85 | 7,813.66 | 8,270.79 | 8,678.13 | 9,025.26 |
| D&A | -446.46 | -497.36 | -549.46 | -601.94 | -653.86 | -704.21 | -751.93 | -795.92 | -835.12 | -868.52 |
| EBIT | 4,192.91 | 4,670.95 | 5,160.28 | 5,653.13 | 6,140.76 | 6,613.63 | 7,061.74 | 7,474.87 | 7,843.02 | 8,156.74 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -894.93 | -996.96 | -1,101.40 | -1,206.60 | -1,310.68 | -1,411.61 | -1,507.25 | -1,595.43 | -1,674.00 | -1,740.96 |
| NOPAT | 3,297.98 | 3,673.99 | 4,058.87 | 4,446.53 | 4,830.08 | 5,202.03 | 5,554.49 | 5,879.44 | 6,169.01 | 6,415.77 |
| Capital Expenditures | -740.13 | -824.51 | -910.89 | -997.89 | -1,083.96 | -1,167.43 | -1,246.53 | -1,319.46 | -1,384.45 | -1,439.82 |
| NWC Investment | 36.52 | 37.95 | 38.84 | 39.12 | 38.71 | 37.54 | 35.57 | 32.79 | 29.22 | 24.90 |
| (+) D&A | 446.46 | 497.36 | 549.46 | 601.94 | 653.86 | 704.21 | 751.93 | 795.92 | 835.12 | 868.52 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,040.83 | 3,384.78 | 3,736.29 | 4,089.71 | 4,438.69 | 4,776.34 | 5,095.45 | 5,388.69 | 5,648.91 | 5,869.38 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 | 37,347,553.25 |
| Metric | Apr-26 | Apr-27 | Apr-28 | Apr-29 | Apr-30 | Apr-31 | Apr-32 | Apr-33 | Apr-34 | Apr-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 5/1/26 | 5/1/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/1/29 | 5/1/30 | 5/1/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/1/33 | 5/1/34 |
| Period End | 4/30/26 | 4/30/27 | 4/30/28 | 4/30/29 | 4/30/30 | 4/30/31 | 4/30/32 | 4/30/33 | 4/30/34 | 4/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 1/29/26 | 10/30/26 | 10/30/27 | 10/30/28 | 10/30/29 | 10/30/30 | 10/30/31 | 10/30/32 | 10/30/33 | 10/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.79 | 1.79 | 2.79 | 3.79 | 4.79 | 5.79 | 6.79 | 7.79 | 8.79 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,014.46 | 3,159.77 | 3,197.04 | 3,207.62 | 3,191.02 | 3,147.41 | 3,077.68 | 2,983.37 | 2,866.63 | 2,730.12 | Raw: 68,290.37 47,002.98 |
Raw: 90,301.88 40,214.14 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,772.90 | 70,789.27 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,553.68 | 2,553.68 |
| Equity Value | 60,219.22 | 68,235.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.35 | 37.35 |
| Fair Value | $1,612.40 | $1,827.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.71% | 39.71% |
| Buy Price | $972.12 | $1,101.52 |
| Current Price | $547.15 | $547.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 77.67% | 101.32% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.43 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,011.71 | 3,137.07 | 3,145.25 | 3,127.00 | 3,082.55 | 3,012.81 | 2,919.31 | 2,804.15 | 2,669.95 | 2,519.71 | Raw: 55,462.34 36,708.31 |
Raw: 73,339.09 30,005.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 52,211.90 | 59,435.27 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,553.68 | 2,553.68 |
| Equity Value | 49,658.22 | 56,881.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.35 | 37.35 |
| Fair Value | $1,329.62 | $1,523.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.71% | 39.71% |
| Buy Price | $801.63 | $918.24 |
| Current Price | $547.15 | $547.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 46.51% | 67.82% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,017.24 | 3,182.84 | 3,250.18 | 3,291.10 | 3,304.35 | 3,289.34 | 3,246.22 | 3,175.86 | 3,079.82 | 2,960.29 | Raw: 88,579.01 63,423.92 |
Raw: 117,130.01 56,820.12 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 79,469.62 | 88,617.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,553.68 | 2,553.68 |
| Equity Value | 76,915.94 | 86,063.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 37.35 | 37.35 |
| Fair Value | $2,059.46 | $2,304.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.71% | 39.71% |
| Buy Price | $1,241.65 | $1,389.32 |
| Current Price | $547.15 | $547.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 126.93% | 153.92% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 36,064.50 | 76,645.87 | 162,891.19 | 346,183.55 | 735,724.56 | 1,563,594.32 | 3,323,019.67 | 7,062,228.08 | 15,008,958.84 | 31,897,701.83 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% | 112.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 3.61 | 7.66 | 16.29 | 34.62 | 73.57 | 156.36 | 332.30 | 706.22 | 1,500.90 | 3,189.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 3.44 | 6.56 | 12.78 | 24.89 | 48.48 | 94.44 | 183.97 | 358.38 | 698.14 | 1,359.98 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-04-30 | $151.41 | 13.46% | $11.17 | -92.62% |
| 2019 | 2019-04-30 | $132.35 | 14.99% | $69.10 | -47.79% |
| 2018 | 2018-04-30 | $96.60 | 12.66% | $-141.79 | -246.78% |
| 2017 | 2017-04-30 | $111.40 | 8.19% | $-7.47 | -106.71% |
| 2016 | 2016-04-30 | $112.00 | 5.15% | $18.86 | -83.16% |
| 2015 | 2015-04-30 | $82.18 | 8.99% | $-27.69 | -133.70% |
| 2014 | 2014-04-30 | $68.66 | 6.76% | $-16.15 | -123.52% |
| 2013 | 2013-04-30 | $57.91 | 1.28% | $-25.82 | -144.58% |
| 2012 | 2012-04-30 | $56.35 | -0.84% | $4.20 | -92.54% |
| 2011 | 2011-04-30 | $39.03 | 0.46% | $2.34 | -94.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-04-30 | $38.63 | 9.22% | $36.74 | -4.90% |
| 2009 | 2009-04-30 | $26.61 | 19.62% | $21.94 | -17.54% |
| 2008 | 2008-04-30 | $22.13 | 21.36% | $60.53 | 173.52% |
| 2007 | 2007-04-30 | $25.15 | 16.78% | $11.98 | -52.38% |
| 2006 | 2006-04-30 | $21.69 | 9.77% | $20.34 | -6.20% |
| 2005 | 2005-04-30 | $16.88 | 6.91% | $12.79 | -24.20% |
| 2004 | 2004-04-30 | $16.56 | 13.42% | $10.93 | -34.00% |
| 2003 | 2003-04-30 | $12.95 | 17.96% | $22.64 | 74.86% |
| 2002 | 2002-04-30 | $13.02 | 16.55% | $-12.54 | -196.31% |
| 2001 | 2001-04-30 | $12.06 | 13.22% | $-5.72 | -147.44% |
| 2000 | 2000-04-30 | $11.75 | 7.13% | $-0.51 | -104.37% |
| 1999 | 1999-04-30 | $13.25 | 7.97% | $-11.87 | -189.62% |
| 1998 | 1998-04-30 | $16.38 | 14.28% | $-5.38 | -132.84% |
| 1997 | 1997-04-30 | $9.44 | 17.36% | $-1.15 | -112.14% |
| 1996 | 1996-04-30 | $10.78 | 16.82% | $-9.06 | -184.00% |
| $1,226.81 - $1,356.71 | 21 |
| $1,356.71 - $1,486.62 | 75 |
| $1,486.62 - $1,616.52 | 118 |
| $1,616.52 - $1,746.43 | 194 |
| $1,746.43 - $1,876.33 | 173 |
| $1,876.33 - $2,006.23 | 111 |
| $2,006.23 - $2,136.14 | 113 |
| $2,136.14 - $2,266.04 | 62 |
| $2,266.04 - $2,395.95 | 36 |
| $2,395.95 - $2,525.85 | 36 |
| $2,525.85 - $2,655.76 | 25 |
| $2,655.76 - $2,785.66 | 19 |
| $2,785.66 - $2,915.57 | 4 |
| $2,915.57 - $3,045.47 | 6 |
| $3,045.47 - $3,175.38 | 2 |
| $3,175.38 - $3,305.28 | 3 |
| $3,305.28 - $3,435.19 | 0 |
| $3,435.19 - $3,565.09 | 1 |
| $3,565.09 - $3,695.00 | 0 |
| $3,695.00 - $3,824.90 | 1 |