Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $30.01 |
| 5Y Range | 1,793.29 – 2,743.95 |
| 5Y Selected | 2,268.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.11% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $360.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,101.21% |
| 10Y Range | 1,393.85 – 1,938.67 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,666.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.11% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $264.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 782.27% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8429 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5240 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0920 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0049 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0313 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2681 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1632 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3319 |
| Safety Score | 0.1589 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 15.43% | 14.16% | 12.89% | 11.62% | 10.35% | 9.08% | 7.81% | 6.54% | 5.27% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 197,049.28 | 224,953.71 | 253,952.49 | 283,463.95 | 312,804.49 | 341,208.93 | 367,858.80 | 391,917.82 | 412,572.45 | 429,075.35 |
| EBITDA | 50,850.97 | 58,052.05 | 65,535.54 | 73,151.34 | 80,723.02 | 88,053.13 | 94,930.46 | 101,139.18 | 106,469.36 | 110,728.14 |
| D&A | -7,384.38 | -8,430.09 | -9,516.81 | -10,622.75 | -11,722.28 | -12,786.72 | -13,785.42 | -14,687.03 | -15,461.06 | -16,079.50 |
| EBIT | 43,466.60 | 49,621.97 | 56,018.73 | 62,528.59 | 69,000.75 | 75,266.41 | 81,145.04 | 86,452.15 | 91,008.30 | 94,648.64 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -15,259.69 | -17,420.64 | -19,666.33 | -21,951.73 | -24,223.89 | -26,423.55 | -28,487.35 | -30,350.50 | -31,950.01 | -33,228.02 |
| NOPAT | 28,206.91 | 32,201.33 | 36,352.40 | 40,576.86 | 44,776.86 | 48,842.85 | 52,657.69 | 56,101.65 | 59,058.29 | 61,420.62 |
| Capital Expenditures | -8,340.96 | -9,522.14 | -10,749.63 | -11,998.83 | -13,240.80 | -14,443.14 | -15,571.21 | -16,589.61 | -17,463.91 | -18,162.46 |
| NWC Investment | 235,214.14 | 249,162.77 | 258,934.40 | 263,512.14 | 261,986.03 | 253,627.39 | 237,960.70 | 214,826.51 | 184,428.23 | 147,356.81 |
| (+) D&A | 7,384.38 | 8,430.09 | 9,516.81 | 10,622.75 | 11,722.28 | 12,786.72 | 13,785.42 | 14,687.03 | 15,461.06 | 16,079.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | 262,464.47 | 280,272.05 | 294,053.98 | 302,712.92 | 305,244.37 | 300,813.83 | 288,832.60 | 269,025.58 | 241,483.67 | 206,694.47 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 | 1,901,575,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 260,188.94 | 269,502.15 | 259,174.77 | 244,343.99 | 225,840.37 | 204,002.23 | 179,542.20 | 153,284.10 | 126,117.26 | 98,946.13 | Raw: 4,566,252.17 3,234,486.98 |
Raw: 3,092,011.39 1,417,107.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,493,537.19 | 3,438,049.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 377,605.50 | 377,605.50 |
| Equity Value | 4,115,931.69 | 3,060,443.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,901.58 | 1,901.58 |
| Fair Value | $2,164.49 | $1,609.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.11% | 84.11% |
| Buy Price | $343.94 | $255.74 |
| Current Price | $30.01 | $30.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,046.07% | 752.18% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 259,951.65 | 268,397.86 | 255,768.40 | 238,920.58 | 218,821.93 | 195,867.12 | 170,816.78 | 144,510.19 | 117,818.43 | 91,595.66 | Raw: 3,726,280.91 2,545,827.94 |
Raw: 2,523,229.68 1,065,646.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,787,688.36 | 3,028,114.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | 377,605.50 | 377,605.50 |
| Equity Value | 3,410,082.86 | 2,650,509.41 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,901.58 | 1,901.58 |
| Fair Value | $1,793.29 | $1,393.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.11% | 84.11% |
| Buy Price | $284.95 | $221.48 |
| Current Price | $30.01 | $30.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 849.53% | 638.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 260,428.64 | 270,621.22 | 262,658.50 | 249,942.16 | 233,151.69 | 212,554.86 | 188,799.92 | 162,679.00 | 135,085.28 | 106,962.48 | Raw: 5,878,471.14 4,318,634.62 |
Raw: 3,980,572.92 1,981,250.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,595,436.83 | 4,064,134.12 |
| (-) Net Debt | 377,605.50 | 377,605.50 |
| Equity Value | 5,217,831.33 | 3,686,528.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,901.58 | 1,901.58 |
| Fair Value | $2,743.95 | $1,938.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.11% | 84.11% |
| Buy Price | $436.01 | $308.05 |
| Current Price | $30.01 | $30.01 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,352.90% | 926.51% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 384,103.24 | 876,376.19 | 1,999,554.12 | 4,562,215.09 | 10,409,223.91 | 23,749,854.03 | 54,188,051.95 | 123,636,337.77 | 282,090,672.52 | 643,622,651.39 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% | 128.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 38.41 | 87.64 | 199.96 | 456.22 | 1,040.92 | 2,374.99 | 5,418.81 | 12,363.63 | 28,209.07 | 64,362.27 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 35.73 | 70.74 | 147.94 | 309.39 | 647.05 | 1,353.21 | 2,830.03 | 5,918.56 | 12,377.76 | 25,886.16 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $79.89 | 22.09% | $-420.41 | -626.24% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $52.06 | 13.09% | $247.20 | 374.84% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $74.41 | 4.00% | $-175.83 | -336.30% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $59.43 | 4.40% | $247.63 | 316.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $51.75 | 11.12% | $215.93 | 317.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $54.11 | 11.96% | $257.81 | 376.46% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.11 | 6.38% | $296.98 | 469.91% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $39.56 | 1.10% | $-199.54 | -604.39% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $26.31 | -1.61% | $160.52 | 510.10% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $47.30 | -3.65% | $-11.69 | -124.71% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $33.10 | -6.47% | $-892.32 | -2,795.83% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $67.10 | -24.71% | $-116.37 | -273.43% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $294.40 | -47.29% | $-1,780.45 | -704.77% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $557.00 | -60.19% | $-1,375.80 | -347.00% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $485.30 | -52.32% | $-872.39 | -279.76% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $481.80 | -22.41% | $-887.34 | -284.17% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $485.40 | 2.76% | $-1,295.62 | -366.92% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $351.90 | 14.16% | $919.35 | 161.25% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $484.49 | 11.77% | $661.30 | 36.49% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $490.08 | 4.60% | $-519.67 | -206.04% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $400.85 | -0.78% | $-156.89 | -139.14% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $238.44 | -1.36% | $-110.39 | -146.30% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $258.54 | 1.55% | $-350.23 | -235.46% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $145.17 | -8.14% | $-402.92 | -377.55% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $100.18 | -13.02% | $-76.14 | -176.01% |
| $1,194.02 - $1,340.70 | 64 |
| $1,340.70 - $1,487.38 | 187 |
| $1,487.38 - $1,634.05 | 281 |
| $1,634.05 - $1,780.73 | 215 |
| $1,780.73 - $1,927.41 | 137 |
| $1,927.41 - $2,074.09 | 69 |
| $2,074.09 - $2,220.77 | 27 |
| $2,220.77 - $2,367.44 | 13 |
| $2,367.44 - $2,514.12 | 2 |
| $2,514.12 - $2,660.80 | 1 |
| $2,660.80 - $2,807.48 | 2 |
| $2,807.48 - $2,954.16 | 0 |
| $2,954.16 - $3,100.83 | 1 |
| $3,100.83 - $3,247.51 | 0 |
| $3,247.51 - $3,394.19 | 0 |
| $3,394.19 - $3,540.87 | 0 |
| $3,540.87 - $3,687.55 | 0 |
| $3,687.55 - $3,834.22 | 0 |
| $3,834.22 - $3,980.90 | 0 |
| $3,980.90 - $4,127.58 | 1 |