Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $10.84 |
| 5Y Range | 0.55 – 3.14 |
| 5Y Selected | 1.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.60% |
| 10Y Range | -0.38 – 1.29 |
| 10Y Selected | 0.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.06 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.41% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.2533 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0041 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0087 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0228 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1264 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0361 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3126 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0134 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -14.23% | -12.21% | -10.18% | -8.15% | -6.13% | -4.10% | -2.08% | -0.05% | 1.97% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 88.22 | 77.45 | 69.57 | 63.90 | 59.98 | 57.52 | 56.33 | 56.30 | 57.41 | 59.71 |
| EBITDA | 84.37 | 74.07 | 66.53 | 61.11 | 57.36 | 55.01 | 53.87 | 53.84 | 54.90 | 57.10 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 84.37 | 74.07 | 66.53 | 61.11 | 57.36 | 55.01 | 53.87 | 53.84 | 54.90 | 57.10 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -29.41 | -25.82 | -23.19 | -21.30 | -20.00 | -19.17 | -18.78 | -18.77 | -19.14 | -19.90 |
| NOPAT | 54.96 | 48.25 | 43.34 | 39.81 | 37.37 | 35.83 | 35.09 | 35.07 | 35.76 | 37.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 23.63 | 17.38 | 12.73 | 9.16 | 6.32 | 3.97 | 1.93 | 0.05 | -1.79 | -3.71 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 78.59 | 65.63 | 56.07 | 48.96 | 43.69 | 39.81 | 37.02 | 35.12 | 33.97 | 33.49 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 | 93,324,457.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.90 | 63.05 | 49.37 | 39.52 | 32.32 | 27.00 | 23.01 | 20.01 | 17.74 | 16.03 | Raw: 627.99 444.83 |
Raw: 481.39 220.62 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 707.01 | 586.59 |
| (-) Net Debt | 560.25 | 560.25 |
| Equity Value | 146.76 | 26.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 93.32 | 93.32 |
| Fair Value | $1.57 | $0.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.22 | $0.04 |
| Current Price | $10.84 | $10.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.96% | -99.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.83 | 62.79 | 48.72 | 38.64 | 31.32 | 25.92 | 21.89 | 18.86 | 16.57 | 14.84 | Raw: 515.86 352.44 |
Raw: 395.44 167.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 611.75 | 524.40 |
| (-) Net Debt | 560.25 | 560.25 |
| Equity Value | 51.50 | -35.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 93.32 | 93.32 |
| Fair Value | $0.55 | $-0.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.08 | $-0.05 |
| Current Price | $10.84 | $10.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -99.28% | -100.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 77.98 | 63.32 | 50.04 | 40.43 | 33.37 | 28.13 | 24.20 | 21.24 | 19.00 | 17.33 | Raw: 800.23 587.89 |
Raw: 613.41 305.31 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 853.02 | 680.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | 560.25 | 560.25 |
| Equity Value | 292.78 | 120.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 93.32 | 93.32 |
| Fair Value | $3.14 | $1.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $0.44 | $0.18 |
| Current Price | $10.84 | $10.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -95.92% | -98.33% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 352.43 | 937.81 | 2,495.53 | 6,640.63 | 17,670.80 | 47,022.19 | 125,126.54 | 332,963.08 | 886,018.33 | 2,357,704.28 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% | 166.10% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.66 | 1.77 | 4.70 | 12.51 | 33.30 | 88.60 | 235.77 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.45 | 1.10 | 2.68 | 6.53 | 15.94 | 38.88 | 94.83 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-10-31 | $13.55 | -10.91% | $15.45 | 14.02% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-31 | $11.72 | -31.65% | $-9.47 | -180.76% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $14.23 | -4.36% | $1.22 | -91.45% |
| $-1.19 - $-0.78 | 20 |
| $-0.78 - $-0.37 | 125 |
| $-0.37 - $0.04 | 228 |
| $0.04 - $0.45 | 239 |
| $0.45 - $0.86 | 197 |
| $0.86 - $1.27 | 93 |
| $1.27 - $1.68 | 47 |
| $1.68 - $2.08 | 24 |
| $2.08 - $2.49 | 17 |
| $2.49 - $2.90 | 5 |
| $2.90 - $3.31 | 2 |
| $3.31 - $3.72 | 1 |
| $3.72 - $4.13 | 1 |
| $4.13 - $4.54 | 0 |
| $4.54 - $4.95 | 0 |
| $4.95 - $5.36 | 0 |
| $5.36 - $5.77 | 0 |
| $5.77 - $6.18 | 0 |
| $6.18 - $6.59 | 0 |
| $6.59 - $6.99 | 0 |