Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.63 |
| 5Y Range | 3.76 – 6.44 |
| 5Y Selected | 5.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.00% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.09% |
| 10Y Range | 3.58 – 5.85 |
| 10Y Selected | 4.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.00% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9849 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9803 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6414 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5376 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1265 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0497 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0329 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0102 |
| Safety Score | 0.1900 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -15.88% | -13.68% | -11.47% | -9.26% | -7.05% | -4.84% | -2.63% | -0.42% | 1.79% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 165.87 | 143.18 | 126.77 | 115.03 | 106.93 | 101.75 | 99.08 | 98.66 | 100.43 | 104.45 |
| EBITDA | 29.97 | 25.87 | 22.90 | 20.78 | 19.32 | 18.38 | 17.90 | 17.82 | 18.14 | 18.87 |
| D&A | -2.20 | -1.90 | -1.68 | -1.53 | -1.42 | -1.35 | -1.32 | -1.31 | -1.33 | -1.39 |
| EBIT | 27.76 | 23.97 | 21.22 | 19.25 | 17.90 | 17.03 | 16.58 | 16.51 | 16.81 | 17.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1.48 | -1.28 | -1.13 | -1.03 | -0.96 | -0.91 | -0.89 | -0.88 | -0.90 | -0.93 |
| NOPAT | 26.28 | 22.69 | 20.08 | 18.23 | 16.94 | 16.12 | 15.70 | 15.63 | 15.91 | 16.55 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.24 | -2.80 | -2.48 | -2.25 | -2.09 | -1.99 | -1.94 | -1.93 | -1.96 | -2.04 |
| NWC Investment | -2.57 | -1.86 | -1.35 | -0.96 | -0.67 | -0.42 | -0.22 | -0.03 | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| (+) D&A | 2.20 | 1.90 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.39 |
| Free Cash Flow | 22.67 | 19.93 | 17.94 | 16.54 | 15.61 | 15.06 | 14.86 | 14.98 | 15.43 | 16.22 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 | 36,977,731.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.47 | 19.16 | 15.81 | 13.35 | 11.55 | 10.21 | 9.24 | 8.54 | 8.06 | 7.77 | Raw: 242.05 171.46 |
Raw: 251.64 115.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 253.81 | 241.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | 76.46 | 76.46 |
| Equity Value | 177.34 | 165.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.98 | 36.98 |
| Fair Value | $4.80 | $4.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.00% | 81.00% |
| Buy Price | $0.91 | $0.85 |
| Current Price | $2.63 | $2.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.29% | -67.70% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.45 | 19.08 | 15.61 | 13.06 | 11.19 | 9.81 | 8.79 | 8.05 | 7.53 | 7.19 | Raw: 196.31 134.12 |
Raw: 204.09 86.19 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 215.51 | 208.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | 76.46 | 76.46 |
| Equity Value | 139.04 | 132.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.98 | 36.98 |
| Fair Value | $3.76 | $3.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.00% | 81.00% |
| Buy Price | $0.71 | $0.68 |
| Current Price | $2.63 | $2.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.78% | -74.07% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22.49 | 19.24 | 16.03 | 13.66 | 11.92 | 10.64 | 9.71 | 9.06 | 8.63 | 8.40 | Raw: 314.67 231.17 |
Raw: 327.13 162.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 314.51 | 292.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 76.46 | 76.46 |
| Equity Value | 238.05 | 216.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 36.98 | 36.98 |
| Fair Value | $6.44 | $5.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.00% | 81.00% |
| Buy Price | $1.22 | $1.11 |
| Current Price | $2.63 | $2.63 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -53.40% | -57.69% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 400.75 | 820.87 | 1,681.41 | 3,444.11 | 7,054.70 | 14,450.43 | 29,599.40 | 60,629.62 | 124,190.07 | 254,383.47 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% | 104.83% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 0.71 | 1.45 | 2.96 | 6.06 | 12.42 | 25.44 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.82 | 1.55 | 2.90 | 5.45 | 10.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $10.05 | -29.05% | $6.58 | -34.49% |
| $2.43 - $2.78 | 3 |
| $2.78 - $3.13 | 17 |
| $3.13 - $3.48 | 64 |
| $3.48 - $3.84 | 125 |
| $3.84 - $4.19 | 145 |
| $4.19 - $4.54 | 179 |
| $4.54 - $4.89 | 133 |
| $4.89 - $5.24 | 123 |
| $5.24 - $5.60 | 77 |
| $5.60 - $5.95 | 52 |
| $5.95 - $6.30 | 25 |
| $6.30 - $6.65 | 23 |
| $6.65 - $7.01 | 13 |
| $7.01 - $7.36 | 6 |
| $7.36 - $7.71 | 7 |
| $7.71 - $8.06 | 2 |
| $8.06 - $8.41 | 2 |
| $8.41 - $8.77 | 2 |
| $8.77 - $9.12 | 0 |
| $9.12 - $9.47 | 2 |