Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $82.35 |
| 5Y Range | 131.04 – 200.02 |
| 5Y Selected | 165.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 23.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $126.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 53.74% |
| 10Y Range | 150.22 – 224.48 |
| 10Y Selected | 187.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 23.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $143.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 74.01% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9966 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9314 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9809 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9100 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9861 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8701 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9840 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9704 |
| Safety Score | 0.7648 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 13.11% | 12.10% | 11.09% | 10.07% | 9.06% | 8.05% | 7.04% | 6.02% | 5.01% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 5,321.82 | 5,965.64 | 6,626.96 | 7,294.51 | 7,955.47 | 8,595.79 | 9,200.65 | 9,754.93 | 10,243.87 | 10,653.62 |
| EBITDA | 2,917.06 | 3,269.96 | 3,632.45 | 3,998.36 | 4,360.65 | 4,711.64 | 5,043.18 | 5,347.00 | 5,615.00 | 5,839.60 |
| D&A | -280.32 | -314.23 | -349.07 | -384.23 | -419.04 | -452.77 | -484.63 | -513.83 | -539.58 | -561.16 |
| EBIT | 2,636.75 | 2,955.73 | 3,283.39 | 3,614.13 | 3,941.61 | 4,258.86 | 4,558.55 | 4,833.17 | 5,075.42 | 5,278.44 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -650.55 | -729.25 | -810.09 | -891.69 | -972.49 | -1,050.76 | -1,124.70 | -1,192.46 | -1,252.23 | -1,302.32 |
| NOPAT | 1,986.20 | 2,226.48 | 2,473.30 | 2,722.44 | 2,969.12 | 3,208.10 | 3,433.84 | 3,640.71 | 3,823.19 | 3,976.12 |
| Capital Expenditures | -94.53 | -105.96 | -117.71 | -129.57 | -141.31 | -152.68 | -163.43 | -173.27 | -181.96 | -189.24 |
| NWC Investment | 29.62 | 30.91 | 31.76 | 32.05 | 31.74 | 30.75 | 29.04 | 26.62 | 23.48 | 19.68 |
| (+) D&A | 280.32 | 314.23 | 349.07 | 384.23 | 419.04 | 452.77 | 484.63 | 513.83 | 539.58 | 561.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,201.61 | 2,465.66 | 2,736.41 | 3,009.15 | 3,278.59 | 3,538.94 | 3,784.09 | 4,007.88 | 4,204.29 | 4,367.73 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 | 298,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,182.52 | 2,368.85 | 2,409.73 | 2,428.93 | 2,425.72 | 2,399.99 | 2,352.24 | 2,283.59 | 2,195.73 | 2,090.86 | Raw: 50,652.61 35,879.58 |
Raw: 67,479.16 30,926.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 47,695.33 | 54,064.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | 612.25 | 612.25 |
| Equity Value | 47,083.08 | 53,452.46 |
| (/) Shares Out | 298.50 | 298.50 |
| Fair Value | $157.73 | $179.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 23.52% | 23.52% |
| Buy Price | $120.63 | $136.95 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 46.50% | 66.32% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,180.53 | 2,358.93 | 2,377.84 | 2,375.02 | 2,350.34 | 2,304.29 | 2,237.93 | 2,152.88 | 2,051.25 | 1,935.54 | Raw: 41,108.17 28,085.47 |
Raw: 54,764.11 23,128.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 39,728.12 | 45,453.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 612.25 | 612.25 |
| Equity Value | 39,115.87 | 44,841.04 |
| (/) Shares Out | 298.50 | 298.50 |
| Fair Value | $131.04 | $150.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 23.52% | 23.52% |
| Buy Price | $100.22 | $114.89 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 21.71% | 39.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,184.53 | 2,378.91 | 2,442.34 | 2,484.58 | 2,504.25 | 2,500.61 | 2,473.53 | 2,423.56 | 2,351.87 | 2,260.26 | Raw: 65,776.08 48,322.57 |
Raw: 87,626.58 43,614.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 60,317.19 | 67,618.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 612.25 | 612.25 |
| Equity Value | 59,704.94 | 67,006.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 298.50 | 298.50 |
| Fair Value | $200.02 | $224.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 23.52% | 23.52% |
| Buy Price | $152.97 | $171.68 |
| Current Price | $82.35 | $82.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 85.77% | 108.49% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 12,923.74 | 31,342.27 | 76,010.36 | 184,338.10 | 447,051.40 | 1,084,176.05 | 2,629,312.20 | 6,376,531.44 | 15,464,178.48 | 37,503,275.63 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% | 142.52% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.29 | 3.13 | 7.60 | 18.43 | 44.71 | 108.42 | 262.93 | 637.65 | 1,546.42 | 3,750.33 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.20 | 2.53 | 5.62 | 12.50 | 27.79 | 61.77 | 137.32 | 305.25 | 678.55 | 1,508.36 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $39.48 | 14.37% | $56.85 | 43.99% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $27.56 | 13.74% | $46.42 | 68.42% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $25.73 | 14.06% | $40.34 | 56.79% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $22.43 | 12.50% | $34.93 | 55.75% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $16.05 | 10.10% | $28.05 | 74.80% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $16.45 | 8.47% | $25.11 | 52.63% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $15.70 | 6.20% | $25.07 | 59.70% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $12.73 | 8.50% | $14.46 | 13.62% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $11.32 | 10.58% | $19.25 | 70.06% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $11.97 | 12.74% | $26.85 | 124.34% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $8.99 | 12.04% | $19.00 | 111.38% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $10.45 | 8.15% | $24.21 | 131.66% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $11.75 | 4.43% | $11.70 | -0.42% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $14.11 | 0.61% | $11.08 | -21.46% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $15.27 | 2.14% | $11.42 | -25.19% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $10.89 | 5.35% | $10.83 | -0.55% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $8.15 | 10.02% | $10.72 | 31.49% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $8.08 | 14.33% | $6.46 | -20.00% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $6.83 | 15.86% | $6.57 | -3.77% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $4.38 | 16.56% | $2.29 | -47.65% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $2.39 | 32.58% | $5.85 | 144.79% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $2.18 | 36.94% | $5.65 | 159.36% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $1.86 | 33.63% | $4.95 | 166.36% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $1.10 | 24.62% | $0.39 | -64.57% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $1.04 | 49.92% | $0.63 | -39.02% |
| $118.24 - $128.98 | 4 |
| $128.98 - $139.72 | 31 |
| $139.72 - $150.46 | 73 |
| $150.46 - $161.20 | 138 |
| $161.20 - $171.94 | 140 |
| $171.94 - $182.68 | 147 |
| $182.68 - $193.42 | 137 |
| $193.42 - $204.16 | 101 |
| $204.16 - $214.90 | 82 |
| $214.90 - $225.64 | 50 |
| $225.64 - $236.37 | 27 |
| $236.37 - $247.11 | 22 |
| $247.11 - $257.85 | 11 |
| $257.85 - $268.59 | 14 |
| $268.59 - $279.33 | 5 |
| $279.33 - $290.07 | 11 |
| $290.07 - $300.81 | 1 |
| $300.81 - $311.55 | 2 |
| $311.55 - $322.29 | 2 |
| $322.29 - $333.03 | 2 |