Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $29.71 |
| 5Y Range | 8.63 – 13.21 |
| 5Y Selected | 10.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 20.90% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.64 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.92% |
| 10Y Range | 8.85 – 13.04 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 20.90% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $8.66 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.85% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9630 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9934 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9153 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8659 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8696 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9315 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9676 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.9419 |
| Safety Score | 0.7910 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.20% | 8.63% | 8.05% | 7.47% | 6.89% | 6.31% | 5.73% | 5.16% | 4.58% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,190.46 | 1,293.15 | 1,397.21 | 1,501.57 | 1,605.04 | 1,706.36 | 1,804.21 | 1,897.25 | 1,984.11 | 2,063.47 |
| EBITDA | 84.89 | 92.21 | 99.63 | 107.08 | 114.45 | 121.68 | 128.66 | 135.29 | 141.49 | 147.15 |
| D&A | -84.99 | -92.32 | -99.75 | -107.20 | -114.59 | -121.82 | -128.81 | -135.45 | -141.65 | -147.32 |
| EBIT | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| NOPAT | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| Capital Expenditures | -29.26 | -31.79 | -34.35 | -36.91 | -39.45 | -41.95 | -44.35 | -46.64 | -48.77 | -50.72 |
| NWC Investment | 32.98 | 33.75 | 34.21 | 34.31 | 34.01 | 33.31 | 32.17 | 30.58 | 28.55 | 26.09 |
| (+) D&A | 84.99 | 92.32 | 99.75 | 107.20 | 114.59 | 121.82 | 128.81 | 135.45 | 141.65 | 147.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | 88.63 | 94.20 | 99.52 | 104.50 | 109.04 | 113.07 | 116.50 | 119.27 | 121.30 | 122.55 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 | 150,315,250.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.86 | 89.88 | 87.03 | 83.76 | 80.05 | 76.08 | 71.86 | 67.43 | 62.86 | 58.21 | Raw: 1,693.05 1,189.91 |
Raw: 1,902.74 865.24 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,618.48 | 1,630.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54.90 | 54.90 |
| Equity Value | 1,563.58 | 1,575.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 150.32 | 150.32 |
| Fair Value | $10.40 | $10.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 20.90% | 20.90% |
| Buy Price | $8.23 | $8.29 |
| Current Price | $29.71 | $29.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.30% | -72.09% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.78 | 89.43 | 85.82 | 81.84 | 77.49 | 72.99 | 68.31 | 63.51 | 58.67 | 53.84 | Raw: 1,372.85 929.86 |
Raw: 1,542.87 645.99 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,352.22 | 1,385.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54.90 | 54.90 |
| Equity Value | 1,297.33 | 1,330.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 150.32 | 150.32 |
| Fair Value | $8.63 | $8.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 20.90% | 20.90% |
| Buy Price | $6.83 | $7.00 |
| Current Price | $29.71 | $29.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.02% | -76.43% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 87.94 | 90.32 | 88.27 | 85.74 | 82.71 | 79.34 | 75.62 | 71.62 | 67.38 | 62.97 | Raw: 2,201.57 1,606.10 |
Raw: 2,474.24 1,222.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,041.09 | 2,014.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | 54.90 | 54.90 |
| Equity Value | 1,986.19 | 1,959.93 |
| (/) Shares Out | 150.32 | 150.32 |
| Fair Value | $13.21 | $13.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 20.90% | 20.90% |
| Buy Price | $10.45 | $10.31 |
| Current Price | $29.71 | $29.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.81% | -65.28% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,717.37 | 6,415.93 | 15,148.55 | 35,767.01 | 84,448.90 | 199,390.95 | 470,778.78 | 1,111,548.25 | 2,624,458.76 | 6,196,567.55 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% | 136.11% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.27 | 0.64 | 1.51 | 3.58 | 8.44 | 19.94 | 47.08 | 111.15 | 262.45 | 619.66 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.26 | 0.56 | 1.21 | 2.63 | 5.68 | 12.30 | 26.61 | 57.60 | 124.65 | 269.77 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $15.03 | 10.96% | $3.54 | -76.42% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $20.92 | 11.80% | $7.39 | -64.69% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $22.24 | 11.20% | $9.98 | -55.13% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $17.07 | 9.32% | $-2.05 | -112.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $11.05 | 11.37% | $-27.04 | -344.73% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $18.81 | 15.90% | $-28.02 | -248.96% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $23.23 | 21.44% | $-46.47 | -300.05% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $23.23 | 26.83% | $-46.29 | -299.28% |
| $7.27 - $8.09 | 23 |
| $8.09 - $8.90 | 90 |
| $8.90 - $9.72 | 187 |
| $9.72 - $10.53 | 238 |
| $10.53 - $11.35 | 172 |
| $11.35 - $12.16 | 110 |
| $12.16 - $12.98 | 82 |
| $12.98 - $13.79 | 46 |
| $13.79 - $14.61 | 23 |
| $14.61 - $15.42 | 7 |
| $15.42 - $16.24 | 9 |
| $16.24 - $17.05 | 5 |
| $17.05 - $17.87 | 2 |
| $17.87 - $18.68 | 2 |
| $18.68 - $19.50 | 2 |
| $19.50 - $20.31 | 1 |
| $20.31 - $21.13 | 0 |
| $21.13 - $21.94 | 0 |
| $21.94 - $22.76 | 0 |
| $22.76 - $23.57 | 0 |