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Bayerische Motoren Werke AG

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$92.25
5Y Range-105.69 – -92.66
5Y Selected-99.18
(-) Safety Margin81.21%
5Y Buy Price$-20.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-122.28%
10Y Range-73.47 – -27.28
10Y Selected-50.37
(-) Safety Margin81.21%
10Y Buy Price$-10.44
Upside (to Buy Price)-111.31%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7545
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7754
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0306
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1944
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2279
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3140
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3531
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2589
Safety Score0.2072

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth10.83%10.07%9.31%8.55%7.79%7.03%6.28%5.52%4.76%4.00%
Revenue157,797.65173,687.55189,859.72206,097.18222,159.61237,788.32252,712.32266,655.60279,345.00290,518.80
EBITDA15,193.8716,723.8618,281.0419,844.4921,391.1022,895.9424,332.9325,675.4826,897.3127,973.20
D&A-8,942.70-9,843.22-10,759.72-11,679.93-12,590.22-13,475.93-14,321.70-15,111.90-15,831.03-16,464.27
EBIT6,251.176,880.657,521.318,164.568,800.879,420.0110,011.2210,563.5911,066.2811,508.93
Pro forma Taxes-1,590.36-1,750.50-1,913.50-2,077.14-2,239.03-2,396.54-2,546.95-2,687.48-2,815.37-2,927.99
NOPAT4,660.815,130.145,607.826,087.426,561.857,023.467,464.277,876.118,250.918,580.95
Capital Expenditures-10,877.75-11,973.11-13,087.94-14,207.26-15,314.52-16,391.88-17,420.67-18,381.84-19,256.59-20,026.85
NWC Investment-3,063.12-3,156.95-3,213.03-3,226.00-3,191.22-3,105.05-2,965.05-2,770.20-2,521.08-2,219.97
(+) D&A8,942.709,843.2210,759.7211,679.9312,590.2213,475.9314,321.7015,111.9015,831.0316,464.27
Free Cash Flow-337.35-156.7066.58334.09646.321,002.461,400.261,835.962,304.272,798.40
Diluted Shares Outstanding616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50616,940,364.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.25%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.640.590.55
PV UFCF-335.00-151.7360.11281.24507.31733.65955.511,168.131,366.981,547.89
Raw: 13,609.12
10,314.60
Raw: 58,923.98
31,471.87

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,676.5237,605.95
(-) Net Debt73,107.5273,107.52
Equity Value-62,431.00-35,501.58
(/) Shares Out616.94616.94
Fair Value$-101.19$-57.54
(-) Safety Margin81.21%81.21%
Buy Price$-19.01$-10.81
Current Price$92.25$92.25
Upside (to Buy Price)-120.61%-111.72%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.25%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.820.760.700.650.600.550.51
PV UFCF-334.69-151.0959.30274.89491.27703.90908.291,100.151,275.541,431.00
Raw: 10,349.92
7,561.33
Raw: 44,812.51
22,024.99

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,901.0327,783.57
(-) Net Debt73,107.5273,107.52
Equity Value-65,206.50-45,323.95
(/) Shares Out616.94616.94
Fair Value$-105.69$-73.47
(-) Safety Margin81.21%81.21%
Buy Price$-19.86$-13.80
Current Price$92.25$92.25
Upside (to Buy Price)-121.53%-114.96%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.25%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF-335.31-152.3960.94287.80524.02764.951,005.651,241.001,465.921,675.55
Raw: 19,776.09
15,555.12
Raw: 85,625.36
49,737.66

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,940.1756,275.79
(-) Net Debt73,107.5273,107.52
Equity Value-57,167.35-16,831.74
(/) Shares Out616.94616.94
Fair Value$-92.66$-27.28
(-) Safety Margin81.21%81.21%
Buy Price$-17.41$-5.13
Current Price$92.25$92.25
Upside (to Buy Price)-118.87%-105.56%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$92.25
WACC Used7.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH96.63%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue268,233.99527,430.791,037,091.702,039,242.334,009,779.717,884,464.3015,503,289.9130,484,252.1959,941,447.05117,863,382.46
Constant Implied Growth96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%96.63%
Implied Free Cash Flow26.8252.74103.71203.92400.98788.451,550.333,048.435,994.1411,786.34
Discount Factor0.940.840.780.730.680.640.590.550.520.48
Present Value of Implied FCF25.3144.4081.40149.24273.62501.65919.711,686.193,091.425,667.77

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$73.1413.84%$-264.72-461.94%
20182018-12-31$69.7412.28%$-219.85-415.24%
20172017-12-31$86.408.25%$-145.57-268.49%
20162016-12-31$88.752.44%$-176.84-299.26%
20152015-12-31$97.631.45%$-220.92-326.28%
20142014-12-31$89.772.74%$-167.51-286.60%
20132013-12-31$85.224.48%$-157.99-285.39%
20122012-12-31$75.936.74%$-73.49-196.79%
20112011-12-31$51.765.94%$-31.40-160.66%
20102010-12-31$58.856.24%$-129.42-319.91%
20092009-12-31$31.806.63%$-193.41-708.21%
20082008-12-31$21.6110.43%$-386.99-1,890.81%
20072007-12-31$42.7310.33%$-266.73-724.23%
20062006-12-31$43.805.33%$-199.34-555.12%
20052005-12-31$37.053.18%$-117.40-416.88%
20042004-12-31$33.203.01%$-99.71-400.34%
20032003-12-31$36.756.35%$-98.02-366.73%
20022002-12-31$28.927.88%$-112.34-488.45%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-53.44
Median
$-59.48
10th Percentile
$-74.33
90th Percentile
$-27.34

Fair Value Distribution

$-89.21 - $-76.73
64
$-76.73 - $-64.25
299
$-64.25 - $-51.77
299
$-51.77 - $-39.29
162
$-39.29 - $-26.81
82
$-26.81 - $-14.33
43
$-14.33 - $-1.85
15
$-1.85 - $10.63
13
$10.63 - $23.11
7
$23.11 - $35.59
2
$35.59 - $48.07
4
$48.07 - $60.56
3
$60.56 - $73.04
0
$73.04 - $85.52
3
$85.52 - $98.00
0
$98.00 - $110.48
1
$110.48 - $122.96
0
$122.96 - $135.44
1
$135.44 - $147.92
1
$147.92 - $160.40
1