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BlackRock, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1,068.14
5Y Range-1,792.79 – -1,202.31
5Y Selected-1,497.55
(-) Safety Margin46.63%
5Y Buy Price$-799.24
Upside (to Buy Price)-174.83%
10Y Range-1,892.43 – -1,301.38
10Y Selected-1,596.91
(-) Safety Margin46.63%
10Y Buy Price$-852.27
Upside (to Buy Price)-179.79%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4586
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9093
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4665
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7971
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3240
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8111
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2252
FCF R2 (10Y)0.6381
Safety Score0.5337

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.81%5.61%5.41%5.21%5.01%4.80%4.60%4.40%4.20%4.00%
Revenue21,592.7822,804.0124,037.3225,288.9626,554.9127,830.8029,112.0030,393.6231,670.5132,937.33
EBITDA-14,548.35-15,364.43-16,195.39-17,038.69-17,891.64-18,751.28-19,614.50-20,478.01-21,338.32-22,191.86
D&A-480.91-507.89-535.35-563.23-591.42-619.84-648.37-676.92-705.36-733.57
EBIT-15,029.26-15,872.32-16,730.74-17,601.92-18,483.06-19,371.12-20,262.88-21,154.92-22,043.68-22,925.43
Pro forma Taxes3,133.613,309.393,488.373,670.023,853.734,038.904,224.834,410.824,596.134,779.97
NOPAT-11,895.65-12,562.93-13,242.36-13,931.91-14,629.33-15,332.22-16,038.05-16,744.10-17,447.55-18,145.46
Capital Expenditures-361.23-381.50-402.13-423.07-444.25-465.59-487.02-508.47-529.83-551.02
NWC Investment-266.52-272.24-277.20-281.32-284.54-286.77-287.97-288.06-287.00-284.73
(+) D&A480.91507.89535.35563.23591.42619.84648.37676.92705.36733.57
Free Cash Flow-12,042.49-12,708.78-13,386.34-14,073.07-14,766.68-15,464.75-16,164.67-16,863.71-17,559.02-18,247.64
Diluted Shares Outstanding156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00156,625,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.45%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF-11,938.08-12,220.42-11,798.52-11,359.51-10,925.39-10,487.69-10,048.17-9,608.52-9,170.37-8,735.28
Raw: -227,733.80
-161,314.35
Raw: -281,417.55
-128,977.14

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-219,556.27-235,269.10
(-) Net Debt4,567.004,567.00
Equity Value-224,123.27-239,836.10
(/) Shares Out156.63156.63
Fair Value$-1,430.95$-1,531.28
(-) Safety Margin46.63%46.63%
Buy Price$-763.70$-817.24
Current Price$1,068.14$1,068.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-171.50%-176.51%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF-11,927.19-12,170.35-11,643.45-11,107.37-10,585.86-10,069.47-9,559.85-9,058.54-8,566.94-8,086.35
Raw: -184,878.70
-126,310.76
Raw: -228,460.21
-96,486.57

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-183,744.98-199,261.94
(-) Net Debt4,567.004,567.00
Equity Value-188,311.98-203,828.94
(/) Shares Out156.63156.63
Fair Value$-1,202.31$-1,301.38
(-) Safety Margin46.63%46.63%
Buy Price$-641.67$-694.55
Current Price$1,068.14$1,068.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-160.07%-165.02%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.95%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-11,949.08-12,271.17-11,957.11-11,619.76-11,279.08-10,927.38-10,566.28-10,197.44-9,822.47-9,442.98
Raw: -295,585.30
-217,152.54
Raw: -365,263.71
-181,802.69

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-276,228.74-291,835.45
(-) Net Debt4,567.004,567.00
Equity Value-280,795.74-296,402.45
(/) Shares Out156.63156.63
Fair Value$-1,792.79$-1,892.43
(-) Safety Margin46.63%46.63%
Buy Price$-956.81$-1,009.99
Current Price$1,068.14$1,068.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-189.58%-194.56%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1,068.14
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH154.05%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue58,139.97147,706.18375,251.59953,336.922,421,978.516,153,102.6215,632,125.4639,713,842.17100,894,101.96256,324,224.84
Constant Implied Growth154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%154.05%
Implied Free Cash Flow5.8114.7737.5395.33242.20615.311,563.213,971.3810,089.4125,632.42
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF5.4111.9227.7664.65150.55350.59816.401,901.134,427.1010,309.23

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$502.704.45%$307.26-38.88%
20182018-12-31$392.826.14%$359.92-8.38%
20172017-12-31$513.719.01%$512.63-0.21%
20162016-12-31$380.5410.22%$295.05-22.46%
20152015-12-31$340.5210.02%$393.0515.43%
20142014-12-31$357.568.90%$380.316.36%
20132013-12-31$316.477.94%$424.2234.05%
20122012-12-31$206.717.05%$224.328.52%
20112011-12-31$178.246.16%$258.9845.30%
20102010-12-31$190.588.70%$263.3838.20%
20092009-12-31$232.209.47%$212.45-8.51%
20082008-12-31$134.1512.73%$372.37177.58%
20072007-12-31$216.809.82%$87.84-59.48%
20062006-12-31$151.906.81%$170.2212.06%
20052005-12-31$108.4810.12%$75.40-30.49%
20042004-12-31$77.2616.40%$103.4933.95%
20032003-12-31$53.1131.75%$141.66166.72%
20022002-12-31$39.4036.36%$128.91227.18%
20012001-12-31$41.7028.39%$95.95130.09%
20002000-12-31$40.0018.56%$41.573.94%
19991999-12-31$17.199.54%$40.31134.48%
19981998-12-31$14.138.29%$11.16-20.99%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1,586.96
Median
$-1,543.71
10th Percentile
$-1,941.73
90th Percentile
$-1,293.56

Fair Value Distribution

$-3,817.70 - $-3,676.73
1
$-3,676.73 - $-3,535.77
0
$-3,535.77 - $-3,394.80
0
$-3,394.80 - $-3,253.84
0
$-3,253.84 - $-3,112.87
1
$-3,112.87 - $-2,971.91
1
$-2,971.91 - $-2,830.95
0
$-2,830.95 - $-2,689.98
0
$-2,689.98 - $-2,549.02
4
$-2,549.02 - $-2,408.05
6
$-2,408.05 - $-2,267.09
11
$-2,267.09 - $-2,126.12
28
$-2,126.12 - $-1,985.16
33
$-1,985.16 - $-1,844.19
65
$-1,844.19 - $-1,703.23
106
$-1,703.23 - $-1,562.27
208
$-1,562.27 - $-1,421.30
225
$-1,421.30 - $-1,280.34
229
$-1,280.34 - $-1,139.37
75
$-1,139.37 - $-998.41
7