Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $11.88 |
| 5Y Range | 19.30 – 31.68 |
| 5Y Selected | 25.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.77% |
| 10Y Range | 22.81 – 36.00 |
| 10Y Selected | 29.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.12% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6628 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0023 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1313 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0023 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2061 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0189 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0736 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0061 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.74% | 6.44% | 6.13% | 5.83% | 5.52% | 5.22% | 4.91% | 4.61% | 4.30% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 94.44 | 100.52 | 106.69 | 112.91 | 119.14 | 125.36 | 131.52 | 137.58 | 143.51 | 149.25 |
| EBITDA | 90.19 | 95.99 | 101.88 | 107.82 | 113.78 | 119.71 | 125.60 | 131.39 | 137.04 | 142.53 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 90.19 | 95.99 | 101.88 | 107.82 | 113.78 | 119.71 | 125.60 | 131.39 | 137.04 | 142.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 90.19 | 95.99 | 101.88 | 107.82 | 113.78 | 119.71 | 125.60 | 131.39 | 137.04 | 142.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -12.62 | -12.87 | -13.05 | -13.16 | -13.20 | -13.16 | -13.04 | -12.83 | -12.53 | -12.15 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 77.57 | 83.13 | 88.84 | 94.66 | 100.58 | 106.56 | 112.56 | 118.56 | 124.51 | 130.38 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 | 44,664,382.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 76.89 | 79.87 | 78.23 | 76.41 | 74.42 | 72.26 | 69.97 | 67.55 | 65.03 | 62.41 | Raw: 1,445.61 1,023.99 |
Raw: 1,873.91 858.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,409.81 | 1,581.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 329.66 | 329.66 |
| Equity Value | 1,080.15 | 1,252.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.66 | 44.66 |
| Fair Value | $24.18 | $28.04 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $3.41 | $3.95 |
| Current Price | $11.88 | $11.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.32% | -66.75% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 76.82 | 79.53 | 77.20 | 74.71 | 72.10 | 69.38 | 66.57 | 63.69 | 60.75 | 57.78 | Raw: 1,187.53 811.33 |
Raw: 1,539.36 650.12 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,191.70 | 1,348.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 329.66 | 329.66 |
| Equity Value | 862.04 | 1,019.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.66 | 44.66 |
| Fair Value | $19.30 | $22.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $2.72 | $3.21 |
| Current Price | $11.88 | $11.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.11% | -72.94% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 76.96 | 80.20 | 79.29 | 78.16 | 76.83 | 75.29 | 73.58 | 71.69 | 69.65 | 67.47 | Raw: 1,842.04 1,353.26 |
Raw: 2,387.78 1,188.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,744.70 | 1,937.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 329.66 | 329.66 |
| Equity Value | 1,415.04 | 1,607.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 44.66 | 44.66 |
| Fair Value | $31.68 | $36.00 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $4.46 | $5.07 |
| Current Price | $11.88 | $11.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.42% | -57.30% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 402.06 | 985.38 | 2,414.97 | 5,918.63 | 14,505.41 | 35,549.94 | 87,126.00 | 213,528.89 | 523,317.82 | 1,282,550.28 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% | 145.08% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.59 | 1.45 | 3.55 | 8.71 | 21.35 | 52.33 | 128.26 |
| Discount Factor | 0.94 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.90 | 2.03 | 4.55 | 10.22 | 22.96 | 51.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $16.48 | -40.13% | $-7.18 | -143.57% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $17.80 | -87.23% | $-8.06 | -145.29% |
| $17.01 - $18.86 | 8 |
| $18.86 - $20.71 | 28 |
| $20.71 - $22.55 | 63 |
| $22.55 - $24.40 | 121 |
| $24.40 - $26.25 | 126 |
| $26.25 - $28.10 | 147 |
| $28.10 - $29.95 | 132 |
| $29.95 - $31.79 | 105 |
| $31.79 - $33.64 | 78 |
| $33.64 - $35.49 | 48 |
| $35.49 - $37.34 | 52 |
| $37.34 - $39.18 | 34 |
| $39.18 - $41.03 | 22 |
| $41.03 - $42.88 | 11 |
| $42.88 - $44.73 | 5 |
| $44.73 - $46.57 | 9 |
| $46.57 - $48.42 | 4 |
| $48.42 - $50.27 | 1 |
| $50.27 - $52.12 | 3 |
| $52.12 - $53.96 | 3 |