Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $42.18 |
| 5Y Range | 561.66 – 1,452.57 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,007.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.67% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $422.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 901.15% |
| 10Y Range | 588.11 – 1,443.54 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,015.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.67% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $425.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 909.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9612 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8141 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5086 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5005 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7701 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6517 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9233 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7162 |
| Safety Score | 0.4193 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 36.28% | 32.70% | 29.11% | 25.52% | 21.93% | 18.35% | 14.76% | 11.17% | 7.59% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 50,009.52 | 66,360.19 | 85,676.46 | 107,542.23 | 131,131.02 | 155,190.36 | 178,097.49 | 197,997.71 | 213,019.58 | 221,540.36 |
| EBITDA | 5,630.91 | 7,471.94 | 9,646.89 | 12,108.91 | 14,764.93 | 17,473.93 | 20,053.20 | 22,293.90 | 23,985.32 | 24,944.73 |
| D&A | -2,156.95 | -2,862.16 | -3,695.29 | -4,638.38 | -5,655.78 | -6,693.48 | -7,681.48 | -8,539.79 | -9,187.69 | -9,555.20 |
| EBIT | 3,473.96 | 4,609.78 | 5,951.60 | 7,470.53 | 9,109.15 | 10,780.46 | 12,371.73 | 13,754.12 | 14,797.63 | 15,389.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 3,473.96 | 4,609.78 | 5,951.60 | 7,470.53 | 9,109.15 | 10,780.46 | 12,371.73 | 13,754.12 | 14,797.63 | 15,389.53 |
| Capital Expenditures | -907.40 | -1,204.07 | -1,554.56 | -1,951.30 | -2,379.31 | -2,815.85 | -3,231.49 | -3,592.57 | -3,865.13 | -4,019.74 |
| NWC Investment | 4,518.73 | 5,549.41 | 6,555.93 | 7,421.23 | 8,006.02 | 8,165.72 | 7,774.66 | 6,754.12 | 5,098.41 | 2,891.95 |
| (+) D&A | 2,156.95 | 2,862.16 | 3,695.29 | 4,638.38 | 5,655.78 | 6,693.48 | 7,681.48 | 8,539.79 | 9,187.69 | 9,555.20 |
| Free Cash Flow | 9,242.24 | 11,817.28 | 14,648.27 | 17,578.84 | 20,391.65 | 22,823.81 | 24,596.38 | 25,455.46 | 25,218.60 | 23,816.94 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 | 700,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,185.79 | 11,488.87 | 13,394.83 | 15,119.31 | 16,496.24 | 17,366.48 | 17,602.97 | 17,135.10 | 15,966.79 | 14,183.18 | Raw: 634,649.61 497,923.14 |
Raw: 741,255.22 428,105.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 563,608.18 | 576,045.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | -22.96 | -22.96 |
| Equity Value | 563,631.14 | 576,068.20 |
| (/) Shares Out | 700.00 | 700.00 |
| Fair Value | $805.19 | $822.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.67% | 61.67% |
| Buy Price | $308.63 | $315.44 |
| Current Price | $42.18 | $42.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 631.69% | 647.84% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,177.19 | 11,439.50 | 13,212.99 | 14,775.09 | 15,970.47 | 16,656.30 | 16,725.80 | 16,129.54 | 14,889.74 | 13,103.20 | Raw: 434,603.01 328,564.51 |
Raw: 507,605.68 269,575.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 393,139.75 | 411,655.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | -22.96 | -22.96 |
| Equity Value | 393,162.71 | 411,678.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 700.00 | 700.00 |
| Fair Value | $561.66 | $588.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.67% | 61.67% |
| Buy Price | $215.28 | $225.42 |
| Current Price | $42.18 | $42.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 410.40% | 434.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 9,194.47 | 11,538.92 | 13,580.92 | 15,474.92 | 17,044.55 | 18,114.09 | 18,535.09 | 18,213.76 | 17,133.06 | 15,363.67 | Raw: 1,166,314.54 949,940.74 |
Raw: 1,362,226.86 856,260.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,016,774.52 | 1,010,454.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | -22.96 | -22.96 |
| Equity Value | 1,016,797.48 | 1,010,477.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 700.00 | 700.00 |
| Fair Value | $1,452.57 | $1,443.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.67% | 61.67% |
| Buy Price | $556.77 | $553.31 |
| Current Price | $42.18 | $42.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,219.98% | 1,211.78% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 80,350.38 | 148,106.79 | 272,999.57 | 503,209.66 | 927,547.10 | 1,709,712.07 | 3,151,446.81 | 5,808,941.26 | 10,707,399.05 | 19,736,538.78 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% | 84.33% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 8.04 | 14.81 | 27.30 | 50.32 | 92.75 | 170.97 | 315.14 | 580.89 | 1,070.74 | 1,973.65 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 7.64 | 12.74 | 22.08 | 38.29 | 66.38 | 115.09 | 199.53 | 345.93 | 599.74 | 1,039.78 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.67 | 54.63% | $157.23 | 1,526.01% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.67 | 51.89% | $91.40 | 845.15% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $9.67 | 39.92% | $60.57 | 526.33% |
| $442.27 - $1,393.72 | 896 |
| $1,393.72 - $2,345.18 | 84 |
| $2,345.18 - $3,296.63 | 9 |
| $3,296.63 - $4,248.09 | 8 |
| $4,248.09 - $5,199.54 | 1 |
| $5,199.54 - $6,150.99 | 0 |
| $6,150.99 - $7,102.45 | 0 |
| $7,102.45 - $8,053.90 | 0 |
| $8,053.90 - $9,005.35 | 0 |
| $9,005.35 - $9,956.81 | 0 |
| $9,956.81 - $10,908.26 | 1 |
| $10,908.26 - $11,859.71 | 0 |
| $11,859.71 - $12,811.17 | 0 |
| $12,811.17 - $13,762.62 | 0 |
| $13,762.62 - $14,714.07 | 0 |
| $14,714.07 - $15,665.53 | 0 |
| $15,665.53 - $16,616.98 | 0 |
| $16,616.98 - $17,568.43 | 0 |
| $17,568.43 - $18,519.89 | 0 |
| $18,519.89 - $19,471.34 | 1 |