Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $53.02 |
| 5Y Range | 49.69 – 77.37 |
| 5Y Selected | 63.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.85% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $34.40 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -35.12% |
| 10Y Range | 54.85 – 82.93 |
| 10Y Selected | 68.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.85% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $37.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.64% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9112 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9087 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7801 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7810 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5840 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7183 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8124 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7684 |
| Safety Score | 0.5415 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.89% | 5.68% | 5.47% | 5.26% | 5.05% | 4.84% | 4.63% | 4.42% | 4.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,768.02 | 1,868.51 | 1,970.78 | 2,074.51 | 2,179.32 | 2,284.84 | 2,390.67 | 2,496.36 | 2,601.47 | 2,705.53 |
| EBITDA | 447.23 | 472.65 | 498.52 | 524.76 | 551.28 | 577.97 | 604.74 | 631.47 | 658.06 | 684.38 |
| D&A | -26.38 | -27.88 | -29.41 | -30.96 | -32.52 | -34.10 | -35.68 | -37.25 | -38.82 | -40.37 |
| EBIT | 420.85 | 444.77 | 469.12 | 493.80 | 518.75 | 543.87 | 569.06 | 594.22 | 619.24 | 644.01 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -92.84 | -98.12 | -103.49 | -108.93 | -114.44 | -119.98 | -125.53 | -131.08 | -136.60 | -142.07 |
| NOPAT | 328.01 | 346.65 | 365.63 | 384.87 | 404.32 | 423.90 | 443.53 | 463.14 | 482.64 | 501.94 |
| Capital Expenditures | -42.49 | -44.91 | -47.37 | -49.86 | -52.38 | -54.92 | -57.46 | -60.00 | -62.53 | -65.03 |
| NWC Investment | -16.10 | -16.44 | -16.73 | -16.97 | -17.15 | -17.27 | -17.31 | -17.29 | -17.20 | -17.03 |
| (+) D&A | 26.38 | 27.88 | 29.41 | 30.96 | 32.52 | 34.10 | 35.68 | 37.25 | 38.82 | 40.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 295.80 | 313.19 | 330.94 | 349.00 | 367.31 | 385.81 | 404.43 | 423.10 | 441.73 | 460.26 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 | 83,100,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 293.23 | 300.89 | 291.43 | 281.70 | 271.76 | 261.64 | 251.40 | 241.07 | 230.70 | 220.33 | Raw: 5,664.43 4,012.38 |
Raw: 7,097.89 3,253.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,451.39 | 5,897.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | 431.73 | 431.73 |
| Equity Value | 5,019.67 | 5,465.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.10 | 83.10 |
| Fair Value | $60.41 | $65.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.85% | 45.85% |
| Buy Price | $32.71 | $35.61 |
| Current Price | $53.02 | $53.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.31% | -32.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 292.97 | 299.63 | 287.57 | 275.45 | 263.31 | 251.21 | 239.18 | 227.27 | 215.52 | 203.96 | Raw: 4,598.53 3,141.76 |
Raw: 5,762.25 2,433.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,560.69 | 4,989.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 431.73 | 431.73 |
| Equity Value | 4,128.96 | 4,557.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.10 | 83.10 |
| Fair Value | $49.69 | $54.85 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.85% | 45.85% |
| Buy Price | $26.91 | $29.70 |
| Current Price | $53.02 | $53.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.25% | -43.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 293.50 | 302.17 | 295.37 | 288.16 | 280.56 | 272.61 | 264.36 | 255.84 | 247.10 | 238.18 | Raw: 7,352.00 5,401.17 |
Raw: 9,212.53 4,585.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,860.93 | 7,323.22 |
| (-) Net Debt | 431.73 | 431.73 |
| Equity Value | 6,429.20 | 6,891.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 83.10 | 83.10 |
| Fair Value | $77.37 | $82.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.85% | 45.85% |
| Buy Price | $41.89 | $44.91 |
| Current Price | $53.02 | $53.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -20.98% | -15.30% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,967.57 | 9,128.76 | 21,003.83 | 48,326.51 | 111,191.67 | 255,834.50 | 588,634.84 | 1,354,355.94 | 3,116,159.41 | 7,169,791.35 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% | 130.08% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.40 | 0.91 | 2.10 | 4.83 | 11.12 | 25.58 | 58.86 | 135.44 | 311.62 | 716.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.37 | 0.74 | 1.55 | 3.28 | 6.91 | 14.58 | 30.74 | 64.83 | 136.73 | 288.37 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $21.65 | 7.33% | $45.55 | 110.38% |
| $43.52 - $48.64 | 10 |
| $48.64 - $53.77 | 68 |
| $53.77 - $58.89 | 163 |
| $58.89 - $64.01 | 193 |
| $64.01 - $69.14 | 165 |
| $69.14 - $74.26 | 139 |
| $74.26 - $79.39 | 111 |
| $79.39 - $84.51 | 62 |
| $84.51 - $89.63 | 32 |
| $89.63 - $94.76 | 18 |
| $94.76 - $99.88 | 18 |
| $99.88 - $105.01 | 9 |
| $105.01 - $110.13 | 4 |
| $110.13 - $115.25 | 3 |
| $115.25 - $120.38 | 0 |
| $120.38 - $125.50 | 2 |
| $125.50 - $130.63 | 1 |
| $130.63 - $135.75 | 0 |
| $135.75 - $140.87 | 0 |
| $140.87 - $146.00 | 2 |