Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Astrana Health, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$22.31
5Y Range15.42 – 26.57
5Y Selected21.00
(-) Safety Margin72.47%
5Y Buy Price$5.78
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.09%
10Y Range18.83 – 30.93
10Y Selected24.88
(-) Safety Margin72.47%
10Y Buy Price$6.85
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.30%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9785
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8483
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2943
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4100
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8280
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6093
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0752
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3395
Safety Score0.2753

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth25.40%23.02%20.65%18.27%15.89%13.51%11.13%8.76%6.38%4.00%
Revenue2,551.333,138.733,786.734,478.475,190.085,891.346,547.267,120.527,574.667,877.65
EBITDA72.2588.88107.23126.82146.97166.82185.40201.63214.49223.07
D&A-55.38-68.12-82.19-97.20-112.65-127.87-142.10-154.55-164.40-170.98
EBIT16.8720.7525.0429.6134.3238.9643.2947.0850.0952.09
Pro forma Taxes-6.11-7.52-9.07-10.73-12.44-14.12-15.69-17.06-18.15-18.88
NOPAT10.7613.2315.9618.8821.8824.8427.6030.0231.9333.21
Capital Expenditures-29.96-36.85-44.46-52.59-60.94-69.18-76.88-83.61-88.94-92.50
NWC Investment10.4511.8813.1113.9914.4014.1913.2711.609.196.13
(+) D&A55.3868.1282.1997.20112.65127.87142.10154.55164.40170.98
Free Cash Flow46.6356.3966.8077.4987.9897.72106.10112.55116.58117.82
Diluted Shares Outstanding48,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.0048,930,473.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.42%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF46.2254.1758.8262.5565.1066.2765.9564.1360.8956.40
Raw: 1,350.28
956.47
Raw: 1,808.23
828.73

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,243.331,429.24
(-) Net Debt277.28277.28
Equity Value966.051,151.96
(/) Shares Out48.9348.93
Fair Value$19.74$23.54
(-) Safety Margin72.47%72.47%
Buy Price$5.44$6.48
Current Price$22.31$22.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.64%-70.95%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.92%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF46.1853.9458.0561.1663.0763.6362.7560.4656.8852.21
Raw: 1,097.11
749.55
Raw: 1,469.19
620.49

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,031.961,198.82
(-) Net Debt277.28277.28
Equity Value754.68921.54
(/) Shares Out48.9348.93
Fair Value$15.42$18.83
(-) Safety Margin72.47%72.47%
Buy Price$4.25$5.18
Current Price$22.31$22.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-80.97%-76.76%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.92%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF46.2754.4059.6263.9867.2069.0569.3568.0665.2260.97
Raw: 1,750.26
1,285.83
Raw: 2,343.85
1,166.60

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value1,577.301,790.73
(-) Net Debt277.28277.28
Equity Value1,300.021,513.45
(/) Shares Out48.9348.93
Fair Value$26.57$30.93
(-) Safety Margin72.47%72.47%
Buy Price$7.31$8.52
Current Price$22.31$22.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-67.21%-61.83%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$22.31
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH92.02%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue5,561.6710,679.3420,506.1039,375.1275,606.77145,177.55278,765.00535,275.071,027,817.001,973,579.27
Constant Implied Growth92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%92.02%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.561.072.053.947.5614.5227.8853.53102.78197.36
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF0.520.861.522.674.708.2714.5625.6245.1079.38

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$18.4133.94%$16.61-9.80%
20182018-12-31$19.8521.38%$30.4153.19%
20172017-12-31$24.0010.41%$51.40114.17%
20162016-03-31$5.930.18%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$24.56
Median
$23.62
10th Percentile
$18.79
90th Percentile
$31.90

Fair Value Distribution

$13.89 - $16.23
15
$16.23 - $18.56
68
$18.56 - $20.90
189
$20.90 - $23.23
199
$23.23 - $25.56
186
$25.56 - $27.90
132
$27.90 - $30.23
73
$30.23 - $32.57
55
$32.57 - $34.90
33
$34.90 - $37.24
19
$37.24 - $39.57
13
$39.57 - $41.90
9
$41.90 - $44.24
4
$44.24 - $46.57
2
$46.57 - $48.91
0
$48.91 - $51.24
2
$51.24 - $53.57
0
$53.57 - $55.91
0
$55.91 - $58.24
0
$58.24 - $60.58
1