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Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$53.67
5Y Range61.59 – 99.21
5Y Selected80.40
(-) Safety Margin85.12%
5Y Buy Price$11.96
Upside (to Buy Price)-77.71%
10Y Range72.22 – 112.27
10Y Selected92.24
(-) Safety Margin85.12%
10Y Buy Price$13.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.43%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9998
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0022
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9995
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0051
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9974
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0113
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0000
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8393
Safety Score0.1488

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth7.72%7.31%6.90%6.48%6.07%5.65%5.24%4.83%4.41%4.00%
Revenue6,391.676,858.837,331.787,807.008,280.748,748.979,207.509,651.9710,077.9710,481.09
EBITDA618.52663.73709.49755.48801.32846.64891.01934.02975.241,014.25
D&A-130.90-140.47-150.15-159.88-169.59-179.18-188.57-197.67-206.39-214.65
EBIT487.62523.26559.34595.60631.74667.46702.44736.35768.85799.60
Pro forma Taxes-96.81-103.88-111.04-118.24-125.42-132.51-139.45-146.18-152.64-158.74
NOPAT390.82419.38448.30477.36506.32534.95562.99590.17616.21640.86
Capital Expenditures-131.89-141.53-151.29-161.10-170.87-180.54-190.00-199.17-207.96-216.28
NWC Investment-32.53-33.17-33.58-33.74-33.63-33.24-32.55-31.55-30.24-28.62
(+) D&A130.90140.47150.15159.88169.59179.18188.57197.67206.39214.65
Free Cash Flow357.29385.15413.58442.40471.40500.35529.01557.11584.40610.61
Diluted Shares Outstanding68,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.0068,627,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricJan-26Jan-27Jan-28Jan-29Jan-30Jan-31Jan-32Jan-33Jan-34Jan-35
Period Start11/1/252/1/262/1/272/1/282/1/292/1/302/1/312/1/322/1/332/1/34
Period End1/31/261/31/271/31/281/31/291/31/301/31/311/31/321/31/331/31/341/31/35
Mid-Point12/16/258/2/268/2/278/1/288/2/298/2/308/2/318/1/328/2/338/2/34
Time (t)0.100.541.542.543.554.555.556.557.558.55
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.00%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.870.800.730.670.620.570.520.47
PV UFCF354.19367.46361.68354.62346.05336.67326.27314.95302.83290.02
Raw: 6,775.30
4,761.79
Raw: 8,776.12
3,990.81

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,545.807,345.56
(-) Net Debt1,300.781,300.78
Equity Value5,245.036,044.78
(/) Shares Out68.6368.63
Fair Value$76.43$88.08
(-) Safety Margin85.12%85.12%
Buy Price$11.37$13.11
Current Price$53.67$53.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.81%-75.58%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.50%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.860.780.710.650.590.530.480.44
PV UFCF353.87365.65356.63346.50335.02322.98310.16296.68282.67268.26
Raw: 5,565.72
3,769.77
Raw: 7,209.34
3,018.50

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,527.456,256.93
(-) Net Debt1,300.781,300.78
Equity Value4,226.674,956.15
(/) Shares Out68.6368.63
Fair Value$61.59$72.22
(-) Safety Margin85.12%85.12%
Buy Price$9.16$10.75
Current Price$53.67$53.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.92%-79.98%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.50%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.820.760.700.650.600.560.51
PV UFCF354.52369.29366.85363.01357.55351.08343.38334.53324.63313.78
Raw: 8,633.23
6,298.13
Raw: 11,182.72
5,527.11

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value8,109.369,005.73
(-) Net Debt1,300.781,300.78
Equity Value6,808.587,704.95
(/) Shares Out68.6368.63
Fair Value$99.21$112.27
(-) Safety Margin85.12%85.12%
Buy Price$14.76$16.71
Current Price$53.67$53.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.49%-68.87%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$53.67
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH101.76%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue12,129.4024,472.0249,374.2199,616.33200,983.72405,500.35818,128.651,650,638.463,330,292.056,719,124.38
Constant Implied Growth101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%101.76%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.212.454.949.9620.1040.5581.81165.06333.03671.91
Discount Factor0.960.870.800.730.670.620.570.520.470.44
Present Value of Implied FCF1.172.143.967.3113.5225.0146.2585.53158.18292.52

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-01-31$12.996.66%$16.6227.95%
20192019-01-31$12.9910.78%$8.00-38.45%
20182018-01-31$12.997.86%$-12.41-195.57%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$90.83
Median
$87.56
10th Percentile
$72.13
90th Percentile
$112.94

Fair Value Distribution

$56.85 - $64.01
13
$64.01 - $71.16
77
$71.16 - $78.32
153
$78.32 - $85.48
195
$85.48 - $92.64
176
$92.64 - $99.80
134
$99.80 - $106.95
99
$106.95 - $114.11
58
$114.11 - $121.27
41
$121.27 - $128.43
23
$128.43 - $135.59
10
$135.59 - $142.74
7
$142.74 - $149.90
4
$149.90 - $157.06
0
$157.06 - $164.22
3
$164.22 - $171.38
3
$171.38 - $178.54
2
$178.54 - $185.69
0
$185.69 - $192.85
0
$192.85 - $200.01
1