Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $20.24 |
| 5Y Range | 21.59 – 31.49 |
| 5Y Selected | 26.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.74 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.52% |
| 10Y Range | 24.10 – 34.39 |
| 10Y Selected | 29.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $4.12 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -79.64% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0000 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.80% | 11.82% | 10.84% | 9.87% | 8.89% | 7.91% | 6.93% | 5.96% | 4.98% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 387.84 | 433.70 | 480.73 | 528.16 | 575.11 | 620.61 | 663.63 | 703.16 | 738.16 | 767.69 |
| EBITDA | 61.76 | 69.06 | 76.55 | 84.10 | 91.58 | 98.83 | 105.68 | 111.97 | 117.54 | 122.25 |
| D&A | -0.61 | -0.69 | -0.76 | -0.84 | -0.91 | -0.98 | -1.05 | -1.11 | -1.17 | -1.21 |
| EBIT | 61.15 | 68.38 | 75.79 | 83.27 | 90.67 | 97.84 | 104.63 | 110.86 | 116.38 | 121.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -11.50 | -12.86 | -14.25 | -15.66 | -17.05 | -18.40 | -19.67 | -20.85 | -21.88 | -22.76 |
| NOPAT | 49.65 | 55.52 | 61.54 | 67.61 | 73.62 | 79.44 | 84.95 | 90.01 | 94.49 | 98.27 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | 7.91 | 8.24 | 8.45 | 8.53 | 8.44 | 8.18 | 7.73 | 7.10 | 6.29 | 5.31 |
| (+) D&A | 0.61 | 0.69 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.91 | 0.98 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.17 | 1.21 |
| Free Cash Flow | 58.17 | 64.45 | 70.75 | 76.97 | 82.97 | 88.60 | 93.74 | 98.23 | 101.95 | 104.79 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 | 46,053,611.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.67 | 61.92 | 62.31 | 62.13 | 61.39 | 60.09 | 58.27 | 55.97 | 53.25 | 50.17 | Raw: 1,192.27 844.54 |
Raw: 1,505.91 690.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,149.95 | 1,273.32 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.19 | -24.19 |
| Equity Value | 1,174.14 | 1,297.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.05 | 46.05 |
| Fair Value | $25.50 | $28.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $3.59 | $3.97 |
| Current Price | $20.24 | $20.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -82.25% | -80.39% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.62 | 61.66 | 61.48 | 60.75 | 59.48 | 57.69 | 55.44 | 52.76 | 49.74 | 46.44 | Raw: 979.45 669.17 |
Raw: 1,237.10 522.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 970.15 | 1,085.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.19 | -24.19 |
| Equity Value | 994.34 | 1,109.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.05 | 46.05 |
| Fair Value | $21.59 | $24.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $3.04 | $3.40 |
| Current Price | $20.24 | $20.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.97% | -83.23% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.72 | 62.18 | 63.15 | 63.55 | 63.37 | 62.61 | 61.27 | 59.40 | 57.03 | 54.23 | Raw: 1,519.16 1,116.05 |
Raw: 1,918.78 955.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,426.03 | 1,559.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | -24.19 | -24.19 |
| Equity Value | 1,450.22 | 1,583.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 46.05 | 46.05 |
| Fair Value | $31.49 | $34.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $4.44 | $4.85 |
| Current Price | $20.24 | $20.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.08% | -76.06% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 853.77 | 1,934.84 | 4,384.80 | 9,936.99 | 22,519.56 | 51,034.62 | 115,656.46 | 262,104.75 | 593,991.06 | 1,346,123.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% | 126.62% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.44 | 0.99 | 2.25 | 5.10 | 11.57 | 26.21 | 59.40 | 134.61 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 0.67 | 1.40 | 2.91 | 6.04 | 12.55 | 26.06 | 54.14 |
| $19.74 - $21.38 | 9 |
| $21.38 - $23.03 | 31 |
| $23.03 - $24.67 | 85 |
| $24.67 - $26.32 | 156 |
| $26.32 - $27.96 | 183 |
| $27.96 - $29.61 | 165 |
| $29.61 - $31.25 | 120 |
| $31.25 - $32.89 | 96 |
| $32.89 - $34.54 | 56 |
| $34.54 - $36.18 | 27 |
| $36.18 - $37.83 | 36 |
| $37.83 - $39.47 | 12 |
| $39.47 - $41.12 | 13 |
| $41.12 - $42.76 | 5 |
| $42.76 - $44.41 | 2 |
| $44.41 - $46.05 | 1 |
| $46.05 - $47.70 | 0 |
| $47.70 - $49.34 | 0 |
| $49.34 - $50.98 | 2 |
| $50.98 - $52.63 | 1 |