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Amphenol Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$129.13
5Y Range37.56 – 58.92
5Y Selected48.24
(-) Safety Margin27.60%
5Y Buy Price$34.93
Upside (to Buy Price)-72.95%
10Y Range44.23 – 67.80
10Y Selected56.02
(-) Safety Margin27.60%
10Y Buy Price$40.56
Upside (to Buy Price)-68.59%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9318
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9434
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9467
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.9058
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9400
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9147
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8374
FCF R2 (10Y)0.8359
Safety Score0.7240

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.52%10.68%9.85%9.01%8.18%7.34%6.51%5.67%4.84%4.00%
Revenue16,975.9518,789.3420,639.5022,499.4424,339.0726,125.8127,825.5029,403.3530,825.0832,058.08
EBITDA4,844.075,361.525,889.466,420.206,945.137,454.987,939.988,390.228,795.919,147.75
D&A-589.12-652.05-716.26-780.81-844.65-906.65-965.64-1,020.40-1,069.73-1,112.52
EBIT4,254.954,709.475,173.205,639.396,100.496,548.336,974.357,369.837,726.188,035.22
Pro forma Taxes-1,020.57-1,129.59-1,240.82-1,352.64-1,463.23-1,570.65-1,672.83-1,767.69-1,853.16-1,927.29
NOPAT3,234.383,579.883,932.384,286.754,637.254,977.685,301.515,602.145,873.016,107.94
Capital Expenditures-580.49-642.50-705.76-769.36-832.27-893.37-951.49-1,005.44-1,054.06-1,096.22
NWC Investment-315.50-326.33-332.94-334.70-331.05-321.53-305.86-283.94-255.84-221.88
(+) D&A589.12652.05716.26780.81844.65906.65965.641,020.401,069.731,112.52
Free Cash Flow2,927.513,263.113,609.943,963.494,318.584,669.435,009.805,333.155,632.855,902.36
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.001,271,575,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 9.10%Terminal Growth: 2.47%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.880.810.740.680.620.570.520.48
PV UFCF2,902.133,134.993,178.983,199.263,195.183,166.663,114.163,038.702,941.812,825.50
Raw: 66,784.28
47,306.39
Raw: 91,276.35
41,833.08

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value62,916.9272,530.43
(-) Net Debt4,649.034,649.03
Equity Value58,267.8967,881.41
(/) Shares Out1,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$45.82$53.38
(-) Safety Margin27.60%27.60%
Buy Price$33.18$38.65
Current Price$129.13$129.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-74.31%-70.07%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 10.10%Terminal Growth: 1.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.870.790.720.650.590.540.490.44
PV UFCF2,899.483,121.863,136.913,128.253,095.883,040.382,962.822,864.762,748.232,615.60
Raw: 54,191.13
37,023.86
Raw: 74,064.86
31,280.13

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value52,406.2460,894.30
(-) Net Debt4,649.034,649.03
Equity Value47,757.2156,245.27
(/) Shares Out1,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$37.56$44.23
(-) Safety Margin27.60%27.60%
Buy Price$27.19$32.02
Current Price$129.13$129.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.94%-75.20%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 2.97%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF2,904.803,148.303,222.003,272.553,298.623,299.423,274.733,224.943,151.003,054.41
Raw: 86,747.16
63,729.04
Raw: 118,560.29
59,011.01

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value79,575.3190,861.79
(-) Net Debt4,649.034,649.03
Equity Value74,926.2986,212.77
(/) Shares Out1,271.581,271.58
Fair Value$58.92$67.80
(-) Safety Margin27.60%27.60%
Buy Price$42.66$49.09
Current Price$129.13$129.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-66.96%-61.99%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$129.13
WACC Used9.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH155.85%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue53,660.36137,288.52351,248.78898,660.052,299,196.305,882,428.6115,050,027.0138,505,067.8898,514,125.68252,045,600.61
Constant Implied Growth155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%155.85%
Implied Free Cash Flow5.3713.7335.1289.87229.92588.241,505.003,850.519,851.4125,204.56
Discount Factor0.930.810.740.680.620.570.520.480.440.40
Present Value of Implied FCF4.9911.0825.9960.94142.92335.17786.001,843.274,322.6710,137.14

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$27.0612.69%$23.73-12.30%
20182018-12-31$20.2612.24%$14.97-26.11%
20172017-12-31$21.9511.57%$17.01-22.50%
20162016-12-31$16.809.81%$14.88-11.42%
20152015-12-31$13.068.81%$14.4010.25%
20142014-12-31$13.4511.46%$11.80-12.26%
20132013-12-31$11.1511.75%$10.94-1.91%
20122012-12-31$8.0910.94%$9.3615.68%
20112011-12-31$5.6710.74%$7.5332.75%
20102010-12-31$6.6011.29%$5.33-19.20%
20092009-12-31$5.7712.47%$9.4163.02%
20082008-12-31$3.0013.98%$6.83127.81%
20072007-12-31$5.8010.78%$4.37-24.61%
20062006-12-31$3.888.53%$2.72-29.85%
20052005-12-31$2.778.13%$2.08-24.96%
20042004-12-31$2.3012.40%$2.6716.13%
20032003-12-31$2.0019.50%$2.8039.81%
20022002-12-31$1.1920.58%$2.47107.46%
20012001-12-31$1.5019.34%$1.50-0.24%
20002000-12-31$1.2212.07%$1.3813.27%
19991999-12-31$1.042.13%$-0.07-106.56%
19981998-12-31$0.47-2.14%$-0.91-293.25%
19971997-12-31$0.87-1.40%$-0.06-107.11%
19961996-12-31$0.3512.37%$0.33-3.94%
19951995-12-31$0.3833.04%$1.03172.74%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$55.15
Median
$53.37
10th Percentile
$44.08
90th Percentile
$67.88

Fair Value Distribution

$34.91 - $38.29
10
$38.29 - $41.66
37
$41.66 - $45.04
85
$45.04 - $48.42
130
$48.42 - $51.79
156
$51.79 - $55.17
148
$55.17 - $58.55
107
$58.55 - $61.92
109
$61.92 - $65.30
76
$65.30 - $68.68
48
$68.68 - $72.05
30
$72.05 - $75.43
26
$75.43 - $78.81
15
$78.81 - $82.18
5
$82.18 - $85.56
10
$85.56 - $88.94
2
$88.94 - $92.31
1
$92.31 - $95.69
4
$95.69 - $99.07
0
$99.07 - $102.44
1