| Current Price | $129.13 |
| 5Y Range | 37.56 – 58.92 |
| 5Y Selected | 48.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 27.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $34.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.95% |
| 10Y Range | 44.23 – 67.80 |
| 10Y Selected | 56.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 27.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $40.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.59% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9318 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9434 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9467 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9058 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9400 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9147 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8374 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.8359 |
| Safety Score | 0.7240 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 11.52% | 10.68% | 9.85% | 9.01% | 8.18% | 7.34% | 6.51% | 5.67% | 4.84% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 16,975.95 | 18,789.34 | 20,639.50 | 22,499.44 | 24,339.07 | 26,125.81 | 27,825.50 | 29,403.35 | 30,825.08 | 32,058.08 |
| EBITDA | 4,844.07 | 5,361.52 | 5,889.46 | 6,420.20 | 6,945.13 | 7,454.98 | 7,939.98 | 8,390.22 | 8,795.91 | 9,147.75 |
| D&A | -589.12 | -652.05 | -716.26 | -780.81 | -844.65 | -906.65 | -965.64 | -1,020.40 | -1,069.73 | -1,112.52 |
| EBIT | 4,254.95 | 4,709.47 | 5,173.20 | 5,639.39 | 6,100.49 | 6,548.33 | 6,974.35 | 7,369.83 | 7,726.18 | 8,035.22 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,020.57 | -1,129.59 | -1,240.82 | -1,352.64 | -1,463.23 | -1,570.65 | -1,672.83 | -1,767.69 | -1,853.16 | -1,927.29 |
| NOPAT | 3,234.38 | 3,579.88 | 3,932.38 | 4,286.75 | 4,637.25 | 4,977.68 | 5,301.51 | 5,602.14 | 5,873.01 | 6,107.94 |
| Capital Expenditures | -580.49 | -642.50 | -705.76 | -769.36 | -832.27 | -893.37 | -951.49 | -1,005.44 | -1,054.06 | -1,096.22 |
| NWC Investment | -315.50 | -326.33 | -332.94 | -334.70 | -331.05 | -321.53 | -305.86 | -283.94 | -255.84 | -221.88 |
| (+) D&A | 589.12 | 652.05 | 716.26 | 780.81 | 844.65 | 906.65 | 965.64 | 1,020.40 | 1,069.73 | 1,112.52 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,927.51 | 3,263.11 | 3,609.94 | 3,963.49 | 4,318.58 | 4,669.43 | 5,009.80 | 5,333.15 | 5,632.85 | 5,902.36 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 | 1,271,575,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,902.13 | 3,134.99 | 3,178.98 | 3,199.26 | 3,195.18 | 3,166.66 | 3,114.16 | 3,038.70 | 2,941.81 | 2,825.50 | Raw: 66,784.28 47,306.39 |
Raw: 91,276.35 41,833.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 62,916.92 | 72,530.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,649.03 | 4,649.03 |
| Equity Value | 58,267.89 | 67,881.41 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,271.58 | 1,271.58 |
| Fair Value | $45.82 | $53.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 27.60% | 27.60% |
| Buy Price | $33.18 | $38.65 |
| Current Price | $129.13 | $129.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.31% | -70.07% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,899.48 | 3,121.86 | 3,136.91 | 3,128.25 | 3,095.88 | 3,040.38 | 2,962.82 | 2,864.76 | 2,748.23 | 2,615.60 | Raw: 54,191.13 37,023.86 |
Raw: 74,064.86 31,280.13 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 52,406.24 | 60,894.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,649.03 | 4,649.03 |
| Equity Value | 47,757.21 | 56,245.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,271.58 | 1,271.58 |
| Fair Value | $37.56 | $44.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 27.60% | 27.60% |
| Buy Price | $27.19 | $32.02 |
| Current Price | $129.13 | $129.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.94% | -75.20% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,904.80 | 3,148.30 | 3,222.00 | 3,272.55 | 3,298.62 | 3,299.42 | 3,274.73 | 3,224.94 | 3,151.00 | 3,054.41 | Raw: 86,747.16 63,729.04 |
Raw: 118,560.29 59,011.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 79,575.31 | 90,861.79 |
| (-) Net Debt | 4,649.03 | 4,649.03 |
| Equity Value | 74,926.29 | 86,212.77 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,271.58 | 1,271.58 |
| Fair Value | $58.92 | $67.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 27.60% | 27.60% |
| Buy Price | $42.66 | $49.09 |
| Current Price | $129.13 | $129.13 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.96% | -61.99% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 53,660.36 | 137,288.52 | 351,248.78 | 898,660.05 | 2,299,196.30 | 5,882,428.61 | 15,050,027.01 | 38,505,067.88 | 98,514,125.68 | 252,045,600.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% | 155.85% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.37 | 13.73 | 35.12 | 89.87 | 229.92 | 588.24 | 1,505.00 | 3,850.51 | 9,851.41 | 25,204.56 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.99 | 11.08 | 25.99 | 60.94 | 142.92 | 335.17 | 786.00 | 1,843.27 | 4,322.67 | 10,137.14 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $27.06 | 12.69% | $23.73 | -12.30% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $20.26 | 12.24% | $14.97 | -26.11% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $21.95 | 11.57% | $17.01 | -22.50% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $16.80 | 9.81% | $14.88 | -11.42% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $13.06 | 8.81% | $14.40 | 10.25% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $13.45 | 11.46% | $11.80 | -12.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $11.15 | 11.75% | $10.94 | -1.91% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $8.09 | 10.94% | $9.36 | 15.68% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $5.67 | 10.74% | $7.53 | 32.75% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.60 | 11.29% | $5.33 | -19.20% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $5.77 | 12.47% | $9.41 | 63.02% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $3.00 | 13.98% | $6.83 | 127.81% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $5.80 | 10.78% | $4.37 | -24.61% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.88 | 8.53% | $2.72 | -29.85% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.77 | 8.13% | $2.08 | -24.96% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $2.30 | 12.40% | $2.67 | 16.13% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.00 | 19.50% | $2.80 | 39.81% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.19 | 20.58% | $2.47 | 107.46% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.50 | 19.34% | $1.50 | -0.24% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.22 | 12.07% | $1.38 | 13.27% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.04 | 2.13% | $-0.07 | -106.56% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $0.47 | -2.14% | $-0.91 | -293.25% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $0.87 | -1.40% | $-0.06 | -107.11% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $0.35 | 12.37% | $0.33 | -3.94% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $0.38 | 33.04% | $1.03 | 172.74% |
| $34.91 - $38.29 | 10 |
| $38.29 - $41.66 | 37 |
| $41.66 - $45.04 | 85 |
| $45.04 - $48.42 | 130 |
| $48.42 - $51.79 | 156 |
| $51.79 - $55.17 | 148 |
| $55.17 - $58.55 | 107 |
| $58.55 - $61.92 | 109 |
| $61.92 - $65.30 | 76 |
| $65.30 - $68.68 | 48 |
| $68.68 - $72.05 | 30 |
| $72.05 - $75.43 | 26 |
| $75.43 - $78.81 | 15 |
| $78.81 - $82.18 | 5 |
| $82.18 - $85.56 | 10 |
| $85.56 - $88.94 | 2 |
| $88.94 - $92.31 | 1 |
| $92.31 - $95.69 | 4 |
| $95.69 - $99.07 | 0 |
| $99.07 - $102.44 | 1 |