Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $100.70 |
| 5Y Range | 2,204.92 – 4,987.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 3,595.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.36% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1,668.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,557.29% |
| 10Y Range | 2,951.32 – 6,597.56 |
| 10Y Selected | 4,774.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.36% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2,215.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,100.41% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9348 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7153 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9187 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6888 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9103 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6804 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6989 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7819 |
| Safety Score | 0.4641 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 34.31% | 30.94% | 27.57% | 24.20% | 20.84% | 17.47% | 14.10% | 10.73% | 7.37% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 31,246.54 | 40,913.81 | 52,194.29 | 64,827.40 | 78,335.27 | 92,019.91 | 104,996.56 | 116,267.59 | 124,833.41 | 129,826.75 |
| EBITDA | 27,126.04 | 35,518.47 | 45,311.39 | 56,278.56 | 68,005.13 | 79,885.17 | 91,150.58 | 100,935.29 | 108,371.53 | 112,706.39 |
| D&A | -175.80 | -230.19 | -293.66 | -364.74 | -440.74 | -517.73 | -590.74 | -654.16 | -702.35 | -730.44 |
| EBIT | 26,950.24 | 35,288.28 | 45,017.73 | 55,913.82 | 67,564.39 | 79,367.44 | 90,559.84 | 100,281.14 | 107,669.18 | 111,975.95 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -6,176.20 | -8,087.03 | -10,316.74 | -12,813.80 | -15,483.77 | -18,188.68 | -20,753.65 | -22,981.48 | -24,674.61 | -25,661.59 |
| NOPAT | 20,774.04 | 27,201.24 | 34,700.99 | 43,100.02 | 52,080.63 | 61,178.76 | 69,806.19 | 77,299.65 | 82,994.58 | 86,314.36 |
| Capital Expenditures | -126.00 | -164.98 | -210.47 | -261.41 | -315.88 | -371.06 | -423.39 | -468.84 | -503.38 | -523.52 |
| NWC Investment | 1,307.37 | 1,583.53 | 1,847.78 | 2,069.35 | 2,212.63 | 2,241.59 | 2,125.62 | 1,846.23 | 1,403.11 | 817.93 |
| (+) D&A | 175.80 | 230.19 | 293.66 | 364.74 | 440.74 | 517.73 | 590.74 | 654.16 | 702.35 | 730.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 22,131.21 | 28,849.99 | 36,631.96 | 45,272.69 | 54,418.12 | 63,567.02 | 72,099.16 | 79,331.20 | 84,596.66 | 87,339.21 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 | 430,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21,987.50 | 28,016.48 | 33,329.96 | 38,568.67 | 43,435.86 | 47,538.28 | 50,518.27 | 52,079.75 | 52,033.70 | 50,332.37 | Raw: 1,480,249.62 1,143,650.27 |
Raw: 2,375,749.96 1,325,232.84 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,308,988.75 | 1,743,073.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | -113.42 | -113.42 |
| Equity Value | 1,309,102.17 | 1,743,187.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 430.00 | 430.00 |
| Fair Value | $3,044.42 | $4,053.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.36% | 56.36% |
| Buy Price | $1,328.59 | $1,769.13 |
| Current Price | $100.70 | $100.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,219.35% | 1,656.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 21,967.00 | 27,899.16 | 32,882.30 | 37,693.93 | 42,056.70 | 45,601.60 | 48,010.36 | 49,034.91 | 48,536.79 | 46,514.00 | Raw: 1,054,943.23 785,505.13 |
Raw: 1,693,147.77 868,755.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 948,004.22 | 1,268,952.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -113.42 | -113.42 |
| Equity Value | 948,117.64 | 1,269,065.62 |
| (/) Shares Out | 430.00 | 430.00 |
| Fair Value | $2,204.92 | $2,951.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.36% | 56.36% |
| Buy Price | $962.23 | $1,287.95 |
| Current Price | $100.70 | $100.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 855.54% | 1,179.00% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 22,008.21 | 28,135.41 | 33,788.02 | 39,472.23 | 44,873.89 | 49,576.62 | 53,182.67 | 55,345.05 | 55,819.09 | 54,504.67 | Raw: 2,464,037.52 1,976,036.29 |
Raw: 3,954,695.85 2,400,130.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,144,314.05 | 2,836,836.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | -113.42 | -113.42 |
| Equity Value | 2,144,427.47 | 2,836,950.18 |
| (/) Shares Out | 430.00 | 430.00 |
| Fair Value | $4,987.04 | $6,597.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 56.36% | 56.36% |
| Buy Price | $2,176.34 | $2,879.17 |
| Current Price | $100.70 | $100.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,061.22% | 2,759.16% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 66,689.72 | 133,013.11 | 265,295.55 | 529,133.78 | 1,055,360.95 | 2,104,924.63 | 4,198,286.56 | 8,373,511.23 | 16,701,025.40 | 33,310,309.32 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% | 99.45% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 6.67 | 13.30 | 26.53 | 52.91 | 105.54 | 210.49 | 419.83 | 837.35 | 1,670.10 | 3,331.03 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.32 | 11.33 | 21.18 | 39.57 | 73.95 | 138.19 | 258.23 | 482.55 | 901.75 | 1,685.12 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.84 | 53.87% | $240.60 | 3,417.57% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.01 | 51.86% | $53.25 | 786.08% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $8.25 | 42.27% | $38.76 | 369.87% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.97 | 35.80% | $24.31 | 389.12% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5.77 | 26.12% | $13.43 | 132.69% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.55 | 20.30% | $7.01 | 53.97% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.28 | 15.31% | $5.56 | 29.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.94 | 10.64% | $4.36 | 48.16% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $1.92 | 9.23% | $3.38 | 76.18% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.10 | 5.09% | $3.59 | 15.81% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.87 | 5.17% | $3.70 | 28.75% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $0.84 | -1.37% | $9.87 | 1,078.54% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1.97 | -2.99% | $0.14 | -92.69% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $1.95 | 13.70% | $0.08 | -95.93% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $1.64 | 10.91% | $0.17 | -89.75% |
| $1,099.27 - $5,561.90 | 844 |
| $5,561.90 - $10,024.53 | 130 |
| $10,024.53 - $14,487.17 | 17 |
| $14,487.17 - $18,949.80 | 6 |
| $18,949.80 - $23,412.43 | 0 |
| $23,412.43 - $27,875.06 | 0 |
| $27,875.06 - $32,337.69 | 0 |
| $32,337.69 - $36,800.32 | 1 |
| $36,800.32 - $41,262.95 | 0 |
| $41,262.95 - $45,725.58 | 0 |
| $45,725.58 - $50,188.21 | 0 |
| $50,188.21 - $54,650.84 | 0 |
| $54,650.84 - $59,113.47 | 1 |
| $59,113.47 - $63,576.10 | 0 |
| $63,576.10 - $68,038.73 | 0 |
| $68,038.73 - $72,501.36 | 0 |
| $72,501.36 - $76,963.99 | 0 |
| $76,963.99 - $81,426.62 | 0 |
| $81,426.62 - $85,889.26 | 0 |
| $85,889.26 - $90,351.89 | 1 |