Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $34.08 |
| 5Y Range | 42.91 – 70.23 |
| 5Y Selected | 56.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.75% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $12.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.73% |
| 10Y Range | 48.31 – 76.26 |
| 10Y Selected | 62.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.75% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8021 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9325 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0008 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3997 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0048 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3800 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2385 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0772 |
| Safety Score | 0.2125 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.60% | 5.42% | 5.24% | 5.06% | 4.89% | 4.71% | 4.53% | 4.35% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 559.63 | 589.95 | 620.87 | 652.32 | 684.19 | 716.42 | 748.89 | 781.50 | 814.14 | 846.71 |
| EBITDA | 96.88 | 102.13 | 107.48 | 112.92 | 118.44 | 124.02 | 129.64 | 135.28 | 140.94 | 146.57 |
| D&A | -24.26 | -25.57 | -26.91 | -28.28 | -29.66 | -31.06 | -32.46 | -33.88 | -35.29 | -36.70 |
| EBIT | 72.62 | 76.55 | 80.57 | 84.65 | 88.78 | 92.96 | 97.18 | 101.41 | 105.64 | 109.87 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -14.49 | -15.27 | -16.07 | -16.89 | -17.71 | -18.55 | -19.39 | -20.23 | -21.08 | -21.92 |
| NOPAT | 58.13 | 61.28 | 64.49 | 67.76 | 71.07 | 74.42 | 77.79 | 81.18 | 84.57 | 87.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -15.58 | -16.42 | -17.28 | -18.16 | -19.05 | -19.94 | -20.85 | -21.76 | -22.67 | -23.57 |
| NWC Investment | -8.53 | -8.72 | -8.89 | -9.04 | -9.17 | -9.26 | -9.34 | -9.38 | -9.39 | -9.36 |
| (+) D&A | 24.26 | 25.57 | 26.91 | 28.28 | 29.66 | 31.06 | 32.46 | 33.88 | 35.29 | 36.70 |
| Free Cash Flow | 58.28 | 61.71 | 65.23 | 68.84 | 72.52 | 76.26 | 80.07 | 83.92 | 87.81 | 91.72 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 | 16,683,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.78 | 59.29 | 57.44 | 55.56 | 53.65 | 51.72 | 49.77 | 47.82 | 45.86 | 43.91 | Raw: 1,120.43 793.65 |
Raw: 1,417.15 649.50 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,077.38 | 1,172.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 185.06 | 185.06 |
| Equity Value | 892.31 | 987.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.68 | 16.68 |
| Fair Value | $53.48 | $59.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.75% | 78.75% |
| Buy Price | $11.37 | $12.57 |
| Current Price | $34.08 | $34.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.65% | -63.10% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.72 | 59.04 | 56.68 | 54.33 | 51.98 | 49.66 | 47.35 | 45.08 | 42.84 | 40.65 | Raw: 909.30 621.24 |
Raw: 1,150.10 485.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 901.00 | 991.06 |
| (-) Net Debt | 185.06 | 185.06 |
| Equity Value | 715.94 | 806.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.68 | 16.68 |
| Fair Value | $42.91 | $48.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.75% | 78.75% |
| Buy Price | $9.12 | $10.27 |
| Current Price | $34.08 | $34.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.24% | -69.88% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 57.83 | 59.54 | 58.22 | 56.84 | 55.39 | 53.89 | 52.34 | 50.75 | 49.12 | 47.46 | Raw: 1,455.00 1,068.92 |
Raw: 1,840.31 915.98 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,356.74 | 1,457.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 185.06 | 185.06 |
| Equity Value | 1,171.67 | 1,272.29 |
| (/) Shares Out | 16.68 | 16.68 |
| Fair Value | $70.23 | $76.26 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.75% | 78.75% |
| Buy Price | $14.92 | $16.21 |
| Current Price | $34.08 | $34.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.21% | -52.45% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,086.74 | 2,345.81 | 5,063.59 | 10,930.11 | 23,593.41 | 50,928.01 | 109,931.63 | 237,295.05 | 512,217.83 | 1,105,657.69 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% | 115.86% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 1.09 | 2.36 | 5.09 | 10.99 | 23.73 | 51.22 | 110.57 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.74 | 1.47 | 2.90 | 5.74 | 11.36 | 22.48 | 44.47 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $32.33 | 6.78% | $20.11 | -37.81% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $29.79 | 8.36% | $-3.35 | -111.24% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $22.06 | 8.14% | $27.18 | 23.20% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $14.26 | 9.86% | $11.35 | -20.39% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $17.45 | 10.55% | $22.77 | 30.51% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $15.79 | 11.05% | $23.91 | 51.42% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $8.30 | 5.14% | $4.94 | -40.47% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.40 | 13.88% | $4.92 | 11.78% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.76 | 22.76% | $22.02 | 485.55% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4.59 | 21.30% | $18.48 | 302.66% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.67 | 20.00% | $6.91 | 313.51% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.33 | 11.97% | $10.62 | 698.17% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $3.10 | 4.75% | $8.04 | 159.40% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $4.58 | -0.66% | $2.39 | -47.82% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.78 | -8.90% | $0.46 | -83.44% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.81 | -8.34% | $1.18 | -75.41% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $2.62 | 1.61% | $2.22 | -15.08% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $1.57 | 10.42% | $-0.72 | -145.77% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $0.00 | 10.90% | $-0.67 | 0.00% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $3.58 | 4.15% | $-0.25 | -107.10% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $1.25 | -1.40% | $-2.37 | -289.88% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $1.50 | -5.29% | $1.18 | -21.07% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $2.08 | -0.24% | $-1.85 | -189.13% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $2.67 | 3.46% | $-2.23 | -183.68% |
| 1995 | 1995-06-30 | $1.75 | 4.38% | $1.84 | 5.07% |
| $37.25 - $41.19 | 18 |
| $41.19 - $45.13 | 32 |
| $45.13 - $49.07 | 86 |
| $49.07 - $53.01 | 133 |
| $53.01 - $56.95 | 154 |
| $56.95 - $60.89 | 141 |
| $60.89 - $64.83 | 122 |
| $64.83 - $68.77 | 89 |
| $68.77 - $72.71 | 69 |
| $72.71 - $76.65 | 48 |
| $76.65 - $80.59 | 34 |
| $80.59 - $84.52 | 34 |
| $84.52 - $88.46 | 13 |
| $88.46 - $92.40 | 9 |
| $92.40 - $96.34 | 8 |
| $96.34 - $100.28 | 2 |
| $100.28 - $104.22 | 4 |
| $104.22 - $108.16 | 1 |
| $108.16 - $112.10 | 2 |
| $112.10 - $116.04 | 1 |