Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $40.82 |
| 5Y Range | 433.14 – 658.65 |
| 5Y Selected | 545.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.06% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $119.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 193.41% |
| 10Y Range | 518.27 – 775.88 |
| 10Y Selected | 647.08 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.06% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $141.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 247.79% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9785 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8543 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2943 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4841 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1336 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0034 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0752 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5029 |
| Safety Score | 0.2194 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 19.42% | 17.70% | 15.99% | 14.28% | 12.56% | 10.85% | 9.14% | 7.43% | 5.71% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 2,429.58 | 2,859.71 | 3,317.00 | 3,790.60 | 4,266.89 | 4,729.92 | 5,162.19 | 5,545.53 | 5,862.35 | 6,096.84 |
| EBITDA | 1,640.54 | 1,930.98 | 2,239.76 | 2,559.55 | 2,881.15 | 3,193.81 | 3,485.69 | 3,744.54 | 3,958.46 | 4,116.80 |
| D&A | -48.42 | -56.99 | -66.10 | -75.54 | -85.04 | -94.26 | -102.88 | -110.52 | -116.83 | -121.50 |
| EBIT | 1,592.12 | 1,873.99 | 2,173.65 | 2,484.00 | 2,796.12 | 3,099.55 | 3,382.81 | 3,634.02 | 3,841.63 | 3,995.30 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -644.11 | -758.14 | -879.37 | -1,004.93 | -1,131.19 | -1,253.95 | -1,368.55 | -1,470.18 | -1,554.17 | -1,616.33 |
| NOPAT | 948.01 | 1,115.85 | 1,294.28 | 1,479.08 | 1,664.92 | 1,845.60 | 2,014.26 | 2,163.84 | 2,287.46 | 2,378.96 |
| Capital Expenditures | -29.02 | -34.16 | -39.62 | -45.27 | -50.96 | -56.49 | -61.65 | -66.23 | -70.02 | -72.82 |
| NWC Investment | 23.41 | 25.49 | 27.10 | 28.06 | 28.22 | 27.44 | 25.61 | 22.72 | 18.77 | 13.90 |
| (+) D&A | 48.42 | 56.99 | 66.10 | 75.54 | 85.04 | 94.26 | 102.88 | 110.52 | 116.83 | 121.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | 990.82 | 1,164.17 | 1,347.87 | 1,537.41 | 1,727.22 | 1,910.81 | 2,081.10 | 2,230.84 | 2,353.05 | 2,441.54 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 | 47,523,077.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 982.23 | 1,119.44 | 1,187.99 | 1,240.97 | 1,277.91 | 1,295.85 | 1,293.64 | 1,271.08 | 1,228.90 | 1,168.78 | Raw: 26,520.45 18,785.66 |
Raw: 37,488.53 17,181.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 24,594.20 | 29,248.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.46 | -143.46 |
| Equity Value | 24,737.65 | 29,391.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.52 | 47.52 |
| Fair Value | $520.54 | $618.47 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.06% | 78.06% |
| Buy Price | $114.21 | $135.69 |
| Current Price | $40.82 | $40.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 179.78% | 232.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 981.34 | 1,114.85 | 1,172.38 | 1,213.42 | 1,238.20 | 1,244.17 | 1,230.77 | 1,198.32 | 1,148.04 | 1,081.96 | Raw: 21,546.15 14,720.52 |
Raw: 30,457.00 12,863.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 20,440.70 | 24,486.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.46 | -143.46 |
| Equity Value | 20,584.16 | 24,629.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.52 | 47.52 |
| Fair Value | $433.14 | $518.27 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.06% | 78.06% |
| Buy Price | $95.03 | $113.71 |
| Current Price | $40.82 | $40.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 132.80% | 178.56% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 983.14 | 1,124.08 | 1,203.96 | 1,269.40 | 1,319.28 | 1,350.17 | 1,360.34 | 1,348.98 | 1,316.29 | 1,263.48 | Raw: 34,380.72 25,257.89 |
Raw: 48,599.57 24,189.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,157.75 | 36,728.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | -143.46 | -143.46 |
| Equity Value | 31,301.21 | 36,872.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 47.52 | 47.52 |
| Fair Value | $658.65 | $775.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.06% | 78.06% |
| Buy Price | $144.51 | $170.23 |
| Current Price | $40.82 | $40.82 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 254.01% | 317.02% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,313.99 | 12,334.32 | 24,094.99 | 47,069.36 | 91,949.58 | 179,622.70 | 350,891.36 | 685,463.20 | 1,339,046.33 | 2,615,815.23 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.63 | 1.23 | 2.41 | 4.71 | 9.19 | 17.96 | 35.09 | 68.55 | 133.90 | 261.58 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.59 | 1.00 | 1.78 | 3.19 | 5.72 | 10.23 | 18.33 | 32.81 | 58.76 | 105.21 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $18.41 | 34.04% | $16.68 | -9.39% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $19.85 | 21.44% | $29.80 | 50.15% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $9.00 | 10.41% | $-33.07 | -467.46% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $7.50 | 7.92% | $-6.98 | -193.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $5.00 | 11.33% | $-2.42 | -148.38% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $5.50 | 24.81% | $-13.23 | -340.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $6.30 | 42.53% | $-0.11 | -101.75% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $1.48 | 41.12% | $-10.11 | -782.91% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $1.60 | 40.30% | $-7.28 | -555.13% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $0.83 | 33.79% | $-7.56 | -1,012.55% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $2.00 | 22.24% | $-10.05 | -602.27% |
| $410.94 - $452.89 | 9 |
| $452.89 - $494.84 | 39 |
| $494.84 - $536.79 | 114 |
| $536.79 - $578.74 | 163 |
| $578.74 - $620.69 | 172 |
| $620.69 - $662.64 | 154 |
| $662.64 - $704.59 | 120 |
| $704.59 - $746.54 | 81 |
| $746.54 - $788.49 | 75 |
| $788.49 - $830.44 | 28 |
| $830.44 - $872.39 | 14 |
| $872.39 - $914.34 | 13 |
| $914.34 - $956.28 | 8 |
| $956.28 - $998.23 | 3 |
| $998.23 - $1,040.18 | 3 |
| $1,040.18 - $1,082.13 | 1 |
| $1,082.13 - $1,124.08 | 2 |
| $1,124.08 - $1,166.03 | 0 |
| $1,166.03 - $1,207.98 | 0 |
| $1,207.98 - $1,249.93 | 1 |