Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $258.84 |
| 5Y Range | 131.61 – 202.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 167.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.59% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $109.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -57.79% |
| 10Y Range | 151.57 – 228.90 |
| 10Y Selected | 190.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.59% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $124.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.93% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9136 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9258 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8008 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8745 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9458 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9002 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2698 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7492 |
| Safety Score | 0.6541 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.94% | 10.17% | 9.40% | 8.63% | 7.86% | 7.08% | 6.31% | 5.54% | 4.77% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 31,471.52 | 34,671.88 | 37,930.32 | 41,202.49 | 44,439.22 | 47,587.54 | 50,591.93 | 53,395.87 | 55,943.46 | 58,181.19 |
| EBITDA | 9,874.79 | 10,878.96 | 11,901.36 | 12,928.07 | 13,943.65 | 14,931.49 | 15,874.18 | 16,753.97 | 17,553.32 | 18,255.46 |
| D&A | -640.65 | -705.80 | -772.13 | -838.74 | -904.63 | -968.71 | -1,029.87 | -1,086.95 | -1,138.81 | -1,184.36 |
| EBIT | 9,234.14 | 10,173.16 | 11,129.23 | 12,089.33 | 13,039.03 | 13,962.78 | 14,844.31 | 15,667.02 | 16,414.51 | 17,071.09 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,473.42 | -1,623.25 | -1,775.80 | -1,929.00 | -2,080.53 | -2,227.93 | -2,368.59 | -2,499.86 | -2,619.13 | -2,723.90 |
| NOPAT | 7,760.72 | 8,549.91 | 9,353.43 | 10,160.33 | 10,958.49 | 11,734.85 | 12,475.72 | 13,167.16 | 13,795.38 | 14,347.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,242.91 | -1,369.30 | -1,497.99 | -1,627.22 | -1,755.04 | -1,879.38 | -1,998.03 | -2,108.77 | -2,209.38 | -2,297.76 |
| NWC Investment | -587.88 | -606.22 | -617.22 | -619.82 | -613.11 | -596.36 | -569.10 | -531.13 | -482.57 | -423.88 |
| (+) D&A | 640.65 | 705.80 | 772.13 | 838.74 | 904.63 | 968.71 | 1,029.87 | 1,086.95 | 1,138.81 | 1,184.36 |
| Free Cash Flow | 6,570.58 | 7,280.19 | 8,010.35 | 8,752.03 | 9,494.96 | 10,227.82 | 10,938.46 | 11,614.21 | 12,242.24 | 12,809.92 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 | 810,750,000.00 |
| Metric | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 | Oct-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/26/25 | 10/27/26 | 10/27/27 | 10/27/28 | 10/27/29 | 10/27/30 | 10/27/31 | 10/27/32 | 10/27/33 | 10/27/34 |
| Period End | 10/26/26 | 10/26/27 | 10/26/28 | 10/26/29 | 10/26/30 | 10/26/31 | 10/26/32 | 10/26/33 | 10/26/34 | 10/26/35 |
| Mid-Point | 4/26/26 | 4/27/27 | 4/26/28 | 4/27/29 | 4/27/30 | 4/27/31 | 4/26/32 | 4/27/33 | 4/27/34 | 4/27/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.28 | 1.28 | 2.28 | 3.28 | 4.28 | 5.28 | 6.28 | 7.28 | 8.28 | 9.28 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,412.32 | 6,512.34 | 6,567.94 | 6,577.63 | 6,540.90 | 6,458.19 | 6,330.92 | 6,161.46 | 5,953.03 | 5,709.61 | Raw: 146,626.51 96,704.85 |
Raw: 197,817.95 84,414.59 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 129,315.98 | 147,638.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 379.50 | 379.50 |
| Equity Value | 128,936.48 | 147,259.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 810.75 | 810.75 |
| Fair Value | $159.03 | $181.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.59% | 34.59% |
| Buy Price | $104.02 | $118.81 |
| Current Price | $258.84 | $258.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.81% | -54.10% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,395.96 | 6,436.73 | 6,432.71 | 6,383.70 | 6,290.39 | 6,154.43 | 5,978.35 | 5,765.48 | 5,519.85 | 5,246.06 | Raw: 119,007.03 75,139.27 |
Raw: 160,555.73 62,664.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 107,078.75 | 123,268.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 379.50 | 379.50 |
| Equity Value | 106,699.25 | 122,888.85 |
| (/) Shares Out | 810.75 | 810.75 |
| Fair Value | $131.61 | $151.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.59% | 34.59% |
| Buy Price | $86.08 | $99.14 |
| Current Price | $258.84 | $258.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.74% | -61.70% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.49 | ||
| PV UFCF | 6,428.88 | 6,589.55 | 6,707.29 | 6,779.33 | 6,803.83 | 6,779.94 | 6,707.82 | 6,588.66 | 6,424.67 | 6,218.97 | Raw: 190,381.70 131,212.98 |
Raw: 256,849.30 119,933.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 164,521.86 | 185,962.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | 379.50 | 379.50 |
| Equity Value | 164,142.36 | 185,583.27 |
| (/) Shares Out | 810.75 | 810.75 |
| Fair Value | $202.46 | $228.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 34.59% | 34.59% |
| Buy Price | $132.43 | $149.73 |
| Current Price | $258.84 | $258.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.84% | -42.16% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 71,851.52 | 181,988.18 | 460,946.37 | 1,167,501.98 | 2,957,092.12 | 7,489,832.07 | 18,970,523.15 | 48,049,241.32 | 121,700,892.11 | 308,248,512.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% | 153.28% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 7.19 | 18.20 | 46.09 | 116.75 | 295.71 | 748.98 | 1,897.05 | 4,804.92 | 12,170.09 | 30,824.85 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 6.71 | 14.92 | 34.64 | 80.43 | 186.72 | 433.49 | 1,006.41 | 2,336.49 | 5,424.43 | 12,593.44 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-10-25 | $59.51 | 7.66% | $76.99 | 29.37% |
| 2019 | 2019-10-27 | $56.95 | 13.39% | $77.17 | 35.50% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-28 | $31.12 | 18.66% | $100.47 | 222.83% |
| 2017 | 2017-10-29 | $55.90 | 16.56% | $91.44 | 63.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-10-30 | $29.08 | 13.61% | $53.62 | 84.37% |
| 2015 | 2015-10-25 | $16.33 | 14.35% | $21.76 | 33.24% |
| 2014 | 2014-10-26 | $21.04 | 18.68% | $42.91 | 103.97% |
| 2013 | 2013-10-27 | $17.73 | 21.28% | $12.65 | -28.66% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-28 | $10.65 | 18.40% | $42.81 | 301.93% |
| 2011 | 2011-10-30 | $12.32 | 9.43% | $40.97 | 232.58% |
| 2010 | 2010-10-31 | $12.37 | 0.77% | $19.28 | 55.88% |
| 2009 | 2009-10-25 | $12.93 | -1.51% | $1.93 | -85.09% |
| 2008 | 2008-10-26 | $11.30 | 9.81% | $24.98 | 121.02% |
| 2007 | 2007-10-28 | $18.97 | 10.26% | $33.00 | 73.96% |
| 2006 | 2006-10-29 | $17.35 | 4.55% | $21.07 | 21.46% |
| 2005 | 2005-10-30 | $16.36 | -2.35% | $8.92 | -45.47% |
| 2004 | 2004-10-31 | $15.99 | -2.17% | $12.24 | -23.48% |
| 2003 | 2003-10-26 | $20.72 | 9.63% | $7.85 | -62.11% |
| 2002 | 2002-10-27 | $15.12 | 21.00% | $2.04 | -86.51% |
| 2001 | 2001-10-28 | $17.25 | 17.50% | $17.22 | -0.20% |
| 2000 | 2000-10-29 | $24.81 | 3.00% | $14.10 | -43.17% |
| 1999 | 1999-10-31 | $21.94 | -9.58% | $4.67 | -78.73% |
| 1998 | 1998-10-25 | $8.33 | -9.43% | $2.41 | -71.02% |
| 1997 | 1997-10-26 | $7.63 | 5.93% | $4.55 | -40.34% |
| 1996 | 1996-10-27 | $3.28 | 17.79% | $5.33 | 62.45% |
| $127.43 - $142.80 | 42 |
| $142.80 - $158.16 | 129 |
| $158.16 - $173.53 | 219 |
| $173.53 - $188.89 | 204 |
| $188.89 - $204.25 | 146 |
| $204.25 - $219.62 | 119 |
| $219.62 - $234.98 | 67 |
| $234.98 - $250.34 | 37 |
| $250.34 - $265.71 | 12 |
| $265.71 - $281.07 | 13 |
| $281.07 - $296.44 | 3 |
| $296.44 - $311.80 | 2 |
| $311.80 - $327.16 | 3 |
| $327.16 - $342.53 | 0 |
| $342.53 - $357.89 | 1 |
| $357.89 - $373.26 | 1 |
| $373.26 - $388.62 | 1 |
| $388.62 - $403.98 | 0 |
| $403.98 - $419.35 | 0 |
| $419.35 - $434.71 | 1 |