Alupar Investimento S.A.

Fair Value Summary

Current Price	$32.45
5Y Range	91.79 – 206.03
5Y Selected	148.91
(-) Safety Margin	73.60%
5Y Buy Price	$44.14
Upside (to Buy Price)	36.01%
10Y Range	86.43 – 183.37
10Y Selected	134.90
(-) Safety Margin	73.60%
10Y Buy Price	$39.98
Upside (to Buy Price)	23.22%

Company Predictability & Safety

Metric	Value
Revenue R2 (5Y)	0.7205
Revenue R2 (10Y)	0.3969
Net Income R2 (5Y)	0.0158
Net Income R2 (10Y)	0.6899
EBITDA R2 (5Y)	0.2272
EBITDA R2 (10Y)	0.7007
FCF R2 (5Y)	0.7408
FCF R2 (10Y)	0.3495

Safety Score	0.2964

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
% Growth	-6.81%	-5.61%	-4.41%	-3.21%	-2.01%	-0.80%	0.40%	1.60%	2.80%	4.00%
Revenue	3,729.53	3,520.33	3,365.14	3,257.21	3,191.88	3,166.19	3,178.74	3,229.53	3,319.91	3,452.71
EBITDA	2,577.63	2,433.04	2,325.79	2,251.19	2,206.04	2,188.28	2,196.96	2,232.06	2,294.53	2,386.31
D&A	-136.85	-129.17	-123.47	-119.51	-117.12	-116.17	-116.64	-118.50	-121.82	-126.69
EBIT	2,440.79	2,303.87	2,202.31	2,131.68	2,088.92	2,072.11	2,080.32	2,113.56	2,172.71	2,259.62
Pro forma Taxes	-474.70	-448.07	-428.32	-414.58	-406.26	-402.99	-404.59	-411.05	-422.56	-439.46
NOPAT	1,966.09	1,855.80	1,774.00	1,717.10	1,682.66	1,669.12	1,675.73	1,702.50	1,750.15	1,820.16
Capital Expenditures	-215.51	-203.42	-194.46	-188.22	-184.44	-182.96	-183.69	-186.62	-191.84	-199.52
NWC Investment	125.00	95.94	71.17	49.49	29.96	11.78	-5.76	-23.29	-41.45	-60.90
(+) D&A	136.85	129.17	123.47	119.51	117.12	116.17	116.64	118.50	121.82	126.69
Free Cash Flow	2,012.42	1,877.49	1,774.18	1,697.89	1,645.29	1,614.11	1,602.93	1,611.10	1,638.68	1,686.43
Diluted Shares Outstanding	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25	327,631,724.25

Discounting Periods

Metric	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34
Period Start	9/30/25	1/1/26	1/1/27	1/1/28	1/1/29	1/1/30	1/1/31	1/1/32	1/1/33	1/1/34
Period End	12/31/25	12/31/26	12/31/27	12/31/28	12/31/29	12/31/30	12/31/31	12/31/32	12/31/33	12/31/34
Mid-Point	11/15/25	7/2/26	7/2/27	7/1/28	7/2/29	7/2/30	7/2/31	7/1/32	7/2/33	7/2/34
Time (t)	0.10	0.45	1.45	2.46	3.46	4.46	5.46	6.46	7.46	8.46
Valuation Date	1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.49%Terminal Growth: 2.75%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.97	0.91	0.86	0.80	0.76	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.59
PV UFCF	1,999.81	1,825.11	1,619.57	1,454.55	1,323.60	1,219.37	1,137.13	1,073.27	1,025.11	990.69	Raw: 45,178.22 35,219.84	Raw: 46,307.92 26,361.55

Base Case Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	43,442.47	40,029.77
(-) Net Debt	2,151.85	2,151.85
Equity Value	41,290.62	37,877.91
(/) Shares Out	327.63	327.63
Fair Value	$126.03	$115.61
(-) Safety Margin	73.60%	73.60%
Buy Price	$33.27	$30.52
Current Price	$32.45	$32.45
Upside (to Buy Price)	2.53%	-5.94%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.49%Terminal Growth: 2.25%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.97	0.90	0.84	0.78	0.72	0.67	0.63	0.58	0.54
PV UFCF	1,997.94	1,817.45	1,597.77	1,421.49	1,281.48	1,169.59	1,080.55	1,010.38	956.07	915.37	Raw: 32,093.18 24,109.95	Raw: 32,895.69 17,222.01

Conservative Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	32,226.08	30,470.10
(-) Net Debt	2,151.85	2,151.85
Equity Value	30,074.23	28,318.25
(/) Shares Out	327.63	327.63
Fair Value	$91.79	$86.43
(-) Safety Margin	73.60%	73.60%
Buy Price	$24.23	$22.82
Current Price	$32.45	$32.45
Upside (to Buy Price)	-25.32%	-29.68%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.49%Terminal Growth: 3.25%

Metric	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	TV (5y)	TV (10y)
Discount Factor	0.99	0.98	0.93	0.88	0.83	0.79	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64
PV UFCF	2,001.69	1,832.87	1,641.88	1,488.71	1,367.52	1,271.78	1,197.24	1,140.72	1,099.87	1,073.01	Raw: 75,773.30 61,319.80	Raw: 77,668.06 48,114.06

Aggressive Valuation

	5-Year Horizon	10-Year Horizon
	UFCF	UFCF
Enterprise Value	69,652.47	62,229.36
(-) Net Debt	2,151.85	2,151.85
Equity Value	67,500.62	60,077.50
(/) Shares Out	327.63	327.63
Fair Value	$206.03	$183.37
(-) Safety Margin	73.60%	73.60%
Buy Price	$54.39	$48.41
Current Price	$32.45	$32.45
Upside (to Buy Price)	67.61%	49.18%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$32.45

WACC Used6.5%

IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH114.96%

Metric	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036
Implied Revenue	9,366.94	20,135.15	43,282.47	93,039.87	199,998.25	429,915.67	924,145.50	1,986,540.55	4,270,261.94	9,179,342.97
Constant Implied Growth	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%	114.96%
Implied Free Cash Flow	0.94	2.01	4.33	9.30	20.00	42.99	92.41	198.65	427.03	917.93
Discount Factor	0.95	0.86	0.80	0.76	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.55	0.52
Present Value of Implied FCF	0.89	1.72	3.48	7.03	14.19	28.64	57.81	116.70	235.57	475.52

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.

Year	Valuation Date	Actual Price	Realized Growth (5Y)	Calculated Fair Value	Valuation Delta
2019	2019-12-31	$24.54	-12.78%	$-29.25	-219.19%
2018	2018-12-31	$16.60	-11.01%	$1.78	-89.31%
2017	2017-12-31	$16.40	15.53%	$68.49	317.61%
2016	2016-12-31	$15.20	35.54%	$167.07	999.12%
2015	2015-12-31	$10.90	32.90%	$111.03	918.65%
2014	2014-12-31	$14.62	16.25%	$42.21	188.72%
2013	2013-12-31	$13.47	-2.71%	$-0.33	-102.41%
2012	2012-12-31	$14.51	-4.42%	$0.84	-94.20%
2011	2011-12-31	$14.51	-2.77%	$-15.33	-205.68%
2010	2010-12-31	$14.51	-4.58%	$-9.01	-162.08%
2009	2009-12-31	$14.51	0.66%	$-32.63	-324.91%
2008	2008-12-31	$14.51	0.30%	$-10.24	-170.54%
2007	2007-12-31	$14.51	11.91%	$-5.43	-137.40%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$129.25

Median
$114.88

10th Percentile
$87.15

90th Percentile
$183.83

Fair Value Distribution

$60.32 - $89.23	126
$89.23 - $118.15	412
$118.15 - $147.06	235
$147.06 - $175.98	109
$175.98 - $204.89	54
$204.89 - $233.80	27
$233.80 - $262.72	14
$262.72 - $291.63	4
$291.63 - $320.55	4
$320.55 - $349.46	3
$349.46 - $378.38	3
$378.38 - $407.29	3
$407.29 - $436.21	2
$436.21 - $465.12	1
$465.12 - $494.03	0
$494.03 - $522.95	0
$522.95 - $551.86	0
$551.86 - $580.78	1
$580.78 - $609.69	0
$609.69 - $638.61	2

Financial Statements

Fundamentals

Valuations

Miscellaneous

Analysis Mode

Full Access