Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $3.28 |
| 5Y Range | 2.69 – 4.51 |
| 5Y Selected | 3.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -73.90% |
| 10Y Range | 2.91 – 4.77 |
| 10Y Selected | 3.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6442 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6783 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7147 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4219 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7493 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6662 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6814 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0930 |
| Safety Score | 0.2378 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.55% | 4.49% | 4.43% | 4.37% | 4.31% | 4.24% | 4.18% | 4.12% | 4.06% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 43.02 | 44.96 | 46.95 | 49.00 | 51.11 | 53.28 | 55.50 | 57.79 | 60.14 | 62.55 |
| EBITDA | 5.56 | 5.81 | 6.06 | 6.33 | 6.60 | 6.88 | 7.17 | 7.46 | 7.77 | 8.08 |
| D&A | -2.48 | -2.59 | -2.71 | -2.83 | -2.95 | -3.07 | -3.20 | -3.34 | -3.47 | -3.61 |
| EBIT | 3.07 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.81 | 3.97 | 4.13 | 4.30 | 4.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 3.07 | 3.21 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.81 | 3.97 | 4.13 | 4.30 | 4.47 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.39 | -2.50 | -2.61 | -2.72 | -2.84 | -2.96 | -3.08 | -3.21 | -3.34 | -3.47 |
| NWC Investment | -0.20 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.22 | -0.23 | -0.23 | -0.24 | -0.25 | -0.25 | -0.26 |
| (+) D&A | 2.48 | 2.59 | 2.71 | 2.83 | 2.95 | 3.07 | 3.20 | 3.34 | 3.47 | 3.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.97 | 3.10 | 3.24 | 3.39 | 3.53 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 4.01 | 4.17 | 4.35 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 | 20,929,747.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.94 | 3.00 | 2.92 | 2.83 | 2.75 | 2.67 | 2.59 | 2.51 | 2.43 | 2.35 | Raw: 69.69 52.28 |
Raw: 85.66 44.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 66.72 | 71.68 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.12 | -3.12 |
| Equity Value | 69.84 | 74.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.93 | 20.93 |
| Fair Value | $3.34 | $3.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.76% | 77.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.74 | $0.79 |
| Current Price | $3.28 | $3.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.37% | -75.77% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.94 | 2.99 | 2.88 | 2.77 | 2.66 | 2.56 | 2.46 | 2.36 | 2.27 | 2.17 | Raw: 53.80 38.91 |
Raw: 66.13 31.76 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 53.14 | 57.82 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.12 | -3.12 |
| Equity Value | 56.27 | 60.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.93 | 20.93 |
| Fair Value | $2.69 | $2.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.76% | 77.76% |
| Buy Price | $0.60 | $0.65 |
| Current Price | $3.28 | $3.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.77% | -80.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.95 | 3.01 | 2.96 | 2.90 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.72 | 2.66 | 2.60 | 2.54 | Raw: 98.49 76.67 |
Raw: 121.07 68.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 91.32 | 96.66 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.12 | -3.12 |
| Equity Value | 94.44 | 99.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 20.93 | 20.93 |
| Fair Value | $4.51 | $4.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.76% | 77.76% |
| Buy Price | $1.00 | $1.06 |
| Current Price | $3.28 | $3.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.40% | -67.68% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 154.21 | 301.25 | 588.49 | 1,149.62 | 2,245.77 | 4,387.09 | 8,570.15 | 16,741.71 | 32,704.78 | 63,888.51 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% | 95.35% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.86 | 1.67 | 3.27 | 6.39 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 0.91 | 1.65 | 2.99 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.67 | 8.32% | $5.29 | 98.18% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.96 | 1.94% | $-2.72 | -239.00% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.80 | -2.98% | $3.86 | 1.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.07 | 0.38% | $-0.24 | -122.40% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $0.84 | 13.47% | $-3.14 | -473.51% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.54 | 24.06% | $-0.14 | -108.84% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.22 | 18.49% | $-4.76 | -314.19% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.79 | 1.96% | $-4.17 | -249.48% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.78 | -18.82% | $1.46 | -47.37% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $2.57 | -23.16% | $1.96 | -23.86% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $1.31 | -9.94% | $1.63 | 24.37% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.02 | 10.07% | $2.37 | 132.67% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $1.65 | 15.99% | $-10.66 | -746.26% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.09 | 15.03% | $-15.26 | -829.97% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.06 | 2.29% | $3.90 | 89.34% |
| $2.24 - $2.67 | 30 |
| $2.67 - $3.10 | 173 |
| $3.10 - $3.52 | 284 |
| $3.52 - $3.95 | 219 |
| $3.95 - $4.37 | 132 |
| $4.37 - $4.80 | 66 |
| $4.80 - $5.22 | 40 |
| $5.22 - $5.65 | 29 |
| $5.65 - $6.07 | 12 |
| $6.07 - $6.50 | 5 |
| $6.50 - $6.92 | 5 |
| $6.92 - $7.35 | 2 |
| $7.35 - $7.78 | 1 |
| $7.78 - $8.20 | 0 |
| $8.20 - $8.63 | 0 |
| $8.63 - $9.05 | 1 |
| $9.05 - $9.48 | 0 |
| $9.48 - $9.90 | 0 |
| $9.90 - $10.33 | 0 |
| $10.33 - $10.75 | 1 |