Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $172.00 |
| 5Y Range | 2,257.82 – 4,926.64 |
| 5Y Selected | 3,592.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.12% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1,634.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 850.06% |
| 10Y Range | 2,447.96 – 5,170.87 |
| 10Y Selected | 3,809.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.12% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1,732.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 907.50% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7766 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9168 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6889 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6996 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9401 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8987 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1734 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2932 |
| Safety Score | 0.4549 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.15% | 4.13% | 4.12% | 4.10% | 4.08% | 4.07% | 4.05% | 4.03% | 4.02% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 865.77 | 901.56 | 938.68 | 977.17 | 1,017.07 | 1,058.43 | 1,101.30 | 1,145.72 | 1,191.74 | 1,239.41 |
| EBITDA | 209.97 | 218.65 | 227.65 | 236.98 | 246.66 | 256.69 | 267.09 | 277.86 | 289.02 | 300.58 |
| D&A | -49.94 | -52.00 | -54.14 | -56.36 | -58.67 | -61.05 | -63.52 | -66.09 | -68.74 | -71.49 |
| EBIT | 160.03 | 166.64 | 173.50 | 180.62 | 187.99 | 195.64 | 203.56 | 211.77 | 220.28 | 229.09 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -39.43 | -41.06 | -42.75 | -44.51 | -46.32 | -48.21 | -50.16 | -52.18 | -54.28 | -56.45 |
| NOPAT | 120.60 | 125.58 | 130.75 | 136.11 | 141.67 | 147.43 | 153.40 | 159.59 | 166.00 | 172.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -44.13 | -45.95 | -47.85 | -49.81 | -51.84 | -53.95 | -56.14 | -58.40 | -60.75 | -63.17 |
| NWC Investment | -5.48 | -5.68 | -5.89 | -6.11 | -6.33 | -6.57 | -6.81 | -7.05 | -7.31 | -7.57 |
| (+) D&A | 49.94 | 52.00 | 54.14 | 56.36 | 58.67 | 61.05 | 63.52 | 66.09 | 68.74 | 71.49 |
| Free Cash Flow | 120.93 | 125.95 | 131.16 | 136.56 | 142.16 | 147.97 | 153.99 | 160.23 | 166.69 | 173.39 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 | 1,131,479.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120.19 | 122.52 | 120.00 | 117.45 | 114.99 | 112.58 | 110.19 | 107.84 | 105.52 | 103.23 | Raw: 3,770.96 2,958.30 |
Raw: 4,599.35 2,655.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,553.45 | 3,790.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | 75.13 | 75.13 |
| Equity Value | 3,478.32 | 3,715.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Fair Value | $3,074.14 | $3,283.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.12% | 58.12% |
| Buy Price | $1,287.45 | $1,375.11 |
| Current Price | $172.00 | $172.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 648.52% | 699.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120.08 | 122.01 | 118.39 | 114.77 | 111.33 | 107.97 | 104.70 | 101.51 | 98.40 | 95.37 | Raw: 2,702.89 2,043.24 |
Raw: 3,296.66 1,750.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,629.81 | 2,844.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | 75.13 | 75.13 |
| Equity Value | 2,554.68 | 2,769.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Fair Value | $2,257.82 | $2,447.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.12% | 58.12% |
| Buy Price | $945.58 | $1,025.21 |
| Current Price | $172.00 | $172.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 449.75% | 496.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 120.30 | 123.04 | 121.66 | 120.21 | 118.82 | 117.42 | 116.03 | 114.63 | 113.23 | 111.83 | Raw: 6,195.29 5,045.49 |
Raw: 7,556.24 4,748.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,649.52 | 5,925.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | 75.13 | 75.13 |
| Equity Value | 5,574.39 | 5,850.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Fair Value | $4,926.64 | $5,170.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 58.12% | 58.12% |
| Buy Price | $2,063.28 | $2,165.56 |
| Current Price | $172.00 | $172.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,099.58% | 1,159.05% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,627.40 | 4,193.04 | 6,691.61 | 10,679.05 | 17,042.56 | 27,197.98 | 43,404.88 | 69,269.25 | 110,545.84 | 176,418.59 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% | 59.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.26 | 0.42 | 0.67 | 1.07 | 1.70 | 2.72 | 4.34 | 6.93 | 11.05 | 17.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.25 | 0.36 | 0.54 | 0.81 | 1.22 | 1.83 | 2.75 | 4.12 | 6.19 | 9.29 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $115.00 | 5.22% | $189.83 | 65.07% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $100.00 | 5.55% | $-274.77 | -374.77% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $121.11 | 6.85% | $48.42 | -60.02% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $118.00 | 5.25% | $320.57 | 171.67% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $66.50 | 4.48% | $145.12 | 118.22% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $54.90 | 4.26% | $568.58 | 935.67% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $52.49 | 2.26% | $-2.71 | -105.15% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $46.20 | 3.42% | $102.16 | 121.12% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $65.00 | 3.42% | $-186.10 | -386.31% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $80.90 | 1.39% | $-261.36 | -423.07% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $95.00 | 0.11% | $717.58 | 655.35% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $83.00 | -0.45% | $-148.24 | -278.60% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $157.00 | -0.50% | $293.53 | 86.96% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $150.30 | 0.10% | $-89.84 | -159.77% |
| $1,939.71 - $2,802.93 | 270 |
| $2,802.93 - $3,666.16 | 389 |
| $3,666.16 - $4,529.39 | 174 |
| $4,529.39 - $5,392.62 | 80 |
| $5,392.62 - $6,255.84 | 46 |
| $6,255.84 - $7,119.07 | 18 |
| $7,119.07 - $7,982.30 | 8 |
| $7,982.30 - $8,845.53 | 6 |
| $8,845.53 - $9,708.76 | 3 |
| $9,708.76 - $10,571.98 | 3 |
| $10,571.98 - $11,435.21 | 0 |
| $11,435.21 - $12,298.44 | 1 |
| $12,298.44 - $13,161.67 | 0 |
| $13,161.67 - $14,024.89 | 0 |
| $14,024.89 - $14,888.12 | 0 |
| $14,888.12 - $15,751.35 | 0 |
| $15,751.35 - $16,614.58 | 0 |
| $16,614.58 - $17,477.80 | 0 |
| $17,477.80 - $18,341.03 | 0 |
| $18,341.03 - $19,204.26 | 2 |