Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $719.00 |
| 5Y Range | 71.11 – 175.97 |
| 5Y Selected | 123.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.75% |
| 10Y Range | 49.41 – 115.43 |
| 10Y Selected | 82.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $15.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6192 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.7169 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1110 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0615 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0635 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0775 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1764 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1206 |
| Safety Score | 0.1892 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -11.99% | -10.21% | -8.43% | -6.66% | -4.88% | -3.10% | -1.33% | 0.45% | 2.22% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 10,752.74 | 9,654.96 | 8,840.75 | 8,252.22 | 7,849.45 | 7,605.75 | 7,504.71 | 7,538.31 | 7,705.95 | 8,014.19 |
| EBITDA | 3,745.28 | 3,362.91 | 3,079.31 | 2,874.32 | 2,734.03 | 2,649.15 | 2,613.96 | 2,625.66 | 2,684.05 | 2,791.41 |
| D&A | -897.65 | -806.00 | -738.03 | -688.90 | -655.28 | -634.93 | -626.50 | -629.30 | -643.30 | -669.03 |
| EBIT | 2,847.63 | 2,556.91 | 2,341.28 | 2,185.42 | 2,078.76 | 2,014.22 | 1,987.46 | 1,996.36 | 2,040.75 | 2,122.38 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -949.08 | -852.18 | -780.32 | -728.37 | -692.82 | -671.31 | -662.39 | -665.36 | -680.16 | -707.36 |
| NOPAT | 1,898.55 | 1,704.72 | 1,560.96 | 1,457.05 | 1,385.93 | 1,342.91 | 1,325.07 | 1,331.00 | 1,360.60 | 1,415.02 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,340.86 | -2,101.87 | -1,924.62 | -1,796.50 | -1,708.81 | -1,655.76 | -1,633.76 | -1,641.08 | -1,677.57 | -1,744.68 |
| NWC Investment | 221.60 | 166.14 | 123.23 | 89.07 | 60.96 | 36.88 | 15.29 | -5.08 | -25.37 | -46.65 |
| (+) D&A | 897.65 | 806.00 | 738.03 | 688.90 | 655.28 | 634.93 | 626.50 | 629.30 | 643.30 | 669.03 |
| Free Cash Flow | 676.95 | 575.00 | 497.60 | 438.52 | 393.36 | 358.96 | 333.09 | 314.14 | 300.95 | 292.73 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 | 74,298,496.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 672.80 | 558.96 | 454.87 | 376.96 | 317.96 | 272.85 | 238.09 | 211.15 | 190.22 | 173.98 | Raw: 10,105.35 7,921.13 |
Raw: 7,520.15 4,334.33 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,302.68 | 7,802.16 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,588.44 | 2,588.44 |
| Equity Value | 7,714.23 | 5,213.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 74.30 | 74.30 |
| Fair Value | $103.83 | $70.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.64% | 84.64% |
| Buy Price | $15.95 | $10.78 |
| Current Price | $719.00 | $719.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -97.78% | -98.50% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 672.17 | 556.56 | 448.70 | 368.38 | 307.83 | 261.70 | 226.23 | 198.76 | 177.39 | 160.74 | Raw: 7,305.62 5,518.18 |
Raw: 5,436.66 2,881.42 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 7,871.81 | 6,259.86 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,588.44 | 2,588.44 |
| Equity Value | 5,283.37 | 3,671.42 |
| (/) Shares Out | 74.30 | 74.30 |
| Fair Value | $71.11 | $49.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.64% | 84.64% |
| Buy Price | $10.92 | $7.59 |
| Current Price | $719.00 | $719.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -98.48% | -98.94% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.68 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 673.43 | 561.39 | 461.19 | 385.82 | 328.53 | 284.60 | 250.69 | 224.44 | 204.11 | 188.46 | Raw: 16,285.91 13,252.47 |
Raw: 12,119.57 7,602.35 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 15,662.84 | 11,165.01 |
| (-) Net Debt | 2,588.44 | 2,588.44 |
| Equity Value | 13,074.39 | 8,576.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 74.30 | 74.30 |
| Fair Value | $175.97 | $115.43 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.64% | 84.64% |
| Buy Price | $27.03 | $17.73 |
| Current Price | $719.00 | $719.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -96.24% | -97.53% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 54,115.94 | 112,165.72 | 232,485.09 | 481,870.18 | 998,768.89 | 2,070,141.16 | 4,290,766.82 | 8,893,441.81 | 18,433,373.43 | 38,206,721.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% | 107.27% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.41 | 11.22 | 23.25 | 48.19 | 99.88 | 207.01 | 429.08 | 889.34 | 1,843.34 | 3,820.67 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 5.18 | 9.64 | 18.79 | 36.63 | 71.39 | 139.14 | 271.20 | 528.59 | 1,030.26 | 2,008.04 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $543.50 | 24.04% | $-3,258.90 | -699.61% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $462.00 | -32.82% | $-289.79 | -162.73% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $408.00 | -50.31% | $-293.15 | -171.85% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $323.00 | -62.71% | $-259.57 | -180.36% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $164.00 | -46.18% | $-650.19 | -496.46% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $164.50 | -8.00% | $-1,310.38 | -896.58% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $222.00 | -17.19% | $-550.21 | -347.84% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $218.50 | 25.85% | $-2,286.14 | -1,146.29% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $155.00 | 60.49% | $1,927.99 | 1,143.86% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $140.00 | 78.09% | $-3,005.42 | -2,246.73% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $161.50 | 49.47% | $-7,752.21 | -4,900.13% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $137.00 | 2.27% | $-1,645.94 | -1,301.41% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $336.00 | -4.46% | $-655.93 | -295.22% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $409.50 | 6.94% | $195.07 | -52.36% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $198.00 | -33.82% | $30.03 | -84.84% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $62.00 | -64.47% | $-12.67 | -120.43% |
| $35.96 - $53.94 | 153 |
| $53.94 - $71.92 | 351 |
| $71.92 - $89.90 | 270 |
| $89.90 - $107.88 | 104 |
| $107.88 - $125.87 | 54 |
| $125.87 - $143.85 | 26 |
| $143.85 - $161.83 | 15 |
| $161.83 - $179.81 | 14 |
| $179.81 - $197.79 | 6 |
| $197.79 - $215.77 | 1 |
| $215.77 - $233.75 | 2 |
| $233.75 - $251.73 | 1 |
| $251.73 - $269.71 | 1 |
| $269.71 - $287.69 | 1 |
| $287.69 - $305.67 | 0 |
| $305.67 - $323.65 | 0 |
| $323.65 - $341.63 | 0 |
| $341.63 - $359.61 | 0 |
| $359.61 - $377.59 | 0 |
| $377.59 - $395.57 | 0 |