Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $11.30 |
| 5Y Range | 22.74 – 37.00 |
| 5Y Selected | 29.87 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.34% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.86% |
| 10Y Range | 24.48 – 38.94 |
| 10Y Selected | 31.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.34% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -48.90% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3706 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5119 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5760 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1642 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6390 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3665 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0659 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2100 |
| Safety Score | 0.1821 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 4.31% | 4.28% | 4.24% | 4.21% | 4.17% | 4.14% | 4.10% | 4.07% | 4.03% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 56.10 | 58.50 | 60.98 | 63.55 | 66.20 | 68.94 | 71.77 | 74.69 | 77.70 | 80.81 |
| EBITDA | 11.97 | 12.48 | 13.01 | 13.56 | 14.12 | 14.71 | 15.31 | 15.94 | 16.58 | 17.24 |
| D&A | -2.29 | -2.38 | -2.49 | -2.59 | -2.70 | -2.81 | -2.93 | -3.04 | -3.17 | -3.29 |
| EBIT | 9.68 | 10.10 | 10.53 | 10.97 | 11.43 | 11.90 | 12.39 | 12.89 | 13.41 | 13.95 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3.21 | -3.34 | -3.49 | -3.63 | -3.78 | -3.94 | -4.10 | -4.27 | -4.44 | -4.62 |
| NOPAT | 6.48 | 6.75 | 7.04 | 7.34 | 7.64 | 7.96 | 8.29 | 8.62 | 8.97 | 9.33 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.83 | -2.95 | -3.08 | -3.21 | -3.34 | -3.48 | -3.62 | -3.77 | -3.92 | -4.08 |
| NWC Investment | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.11 |
| (+) D&A | 2.29 | 2.38 | 2.49 | 2.59 | 2.70 | 2.81 | 2.93 | 3.04 | 3.17 | 3.29 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5.85 | 6.11 | 6.37 | 6.63 | 6.91 | 7.20 | 7.49 | 7.80 | 8.12 | 8.44 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 | 5,071,299.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 12/31/24 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 7/1/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.81 | 5.91 | 5.73 | 5.55 | 5.38 | 5.21 | 5.04 | 4.88 | 4.72 | 4.57 | Raw: 134.11 100.61 |
Raw: 163.79 85.49 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 128.98 | 138.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | -12.21 | -12.21 |
| Equity Value | 141.19 | 150.49 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Fair Value | $27.84 | $29.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.34% | 83.34% |
| Buy Price | $4.64 | $4.94 |
| Current Price | $11.30 | $11.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -58.95% | -56.25% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.81 | 5.88 | 5.65 | 5.42 | 5.21 | 5.00 | 4.79 | 4.60 | 4.41 | 4.22 | Raw: 103.88 75.13 |
Raw: 126.87 60.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 103.10 | 111.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | -12.21 | -12.21 |
| Equity Value | 115.31 | 124.15 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Fair Value | $22.74 | $24.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.34% | 83.34% |
| Buy Price | $3.79 | $4.08 |
| Current Price | $11.30 | $11.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.48% | -63.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5.82 | 5.93 | 5.80 | 5.68 | 5.55 | 5.43 | 5.31 | 5.18 | 5.06 | 4.94 | Raw: 188.38 146.66 |
Raw: 230.07 130.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 175.45 | 185.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | -12.21 | -12.21 |
| Equity Value | 187.65 | 197.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Fair Value | $37.00 | $38.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.34% | 83.34% |
| Buy Price | $6.16 | $6.49 |
| Current Price | $11.30 | $11.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -45.45% | -42.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 195.40 | 356.16 | 649.20 | 1,183.33 | 2,156.92 | 3,931.54 | 7,166.24 | 13,062.28 | 23,809.33 | 43,398.55 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% | 82.28% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.72 | 1.31 | 2.38 | 4.34 |
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 0.71 | 1.20 | 2.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.20 | -8.20% | $2.73 | -70.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.05 | 9.37% | $9.52 | 35.05% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $9.70 | 24.81% | $18.49 | 90.57% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $7.57 | 30.12% | $22.58 | 198.27% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.80 | 19.04% | $14.38 | 111.48% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.30 | 4.62% | $10.19 | 136.87% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.30 | 7.52% | $6.15 | 42.97% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.30 | 11.77% | $6.76 | 57.16% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $4.05 | 11.08% | $7.70 | 90.01% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.85 | 10.45% | $-1.39 | -136.21% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $2.70 | 6.93% | $7.10 | 162.91% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.93 | 5.36% | $4.31 | 46.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2.93 | 5.88% | $-0.85 | -129.00% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $2.93 | 5.36% | $3.28 | 12.10% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.93 | 6.12% | $6.56 | 124.06% |
| $19.71 - $23.25 | 44 |
| $23.25 - $26.79 | 218 |
| $26.79 - $30.33 | 264 |
| $30.33 - $33.87 | 211 |
| $33.87 - $37.41 | 142 |
| $37.41 - $40.95 | 64 |
| $40.95 - $44.49 | 25 |
| $44.49 - $48.03 | 12 |
| $48.03 - $51.57 | 11 |
| $51.57 - $55.12 | 3 |
| $55.12 - $58.66 | 2 |
| $58.66 - $62.20 | 1 |
| $62.20 - $65.74 | 2 |
| $65.74 - $69.28 | 0 |
| $69.28 - $72.82 | 0 |
| $72.82 - $76.36 | 0 |
| $76.36 - $79.90 | 0 |
| $79.90 - $83.44 | 0 |
| $83.44 - $86.98 | 0 |
| $86.98 - $90.52 | 0 |