Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $259.75 |
| 5Y Range | 221.39 – 340.21 |
| 5Y Selected | 280.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.07% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $165.48 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -36.29% |
| 10Y Range | 249.22 – 374.45 |
| 10Y Selected | 311.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.07% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $183.76 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.25% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8584 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9170 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8883 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7554 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8762 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8919 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8241 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7338 |
| Safety Score | 0.5893 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.63% | 7.23% | 6.83% | 6.42% | 6.02% | 5.62% | 5.21% | 4.81% | 4.40% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,911.80 | 5,266.93 | 5,626.48 | 5,987.85 | 6,348.25 | 6,704.72 | 7,054.12 | 7,393.25 | 7,718.84 | 8,027.59 |
| EBITDA | 853.60 | 915.32 | 977.81 | 1,040.61 | 1,103.24 | 1,165.19 | 1,225.91 | 1,284.85 | 1,341.43 | 1,395.09 |
| D&A | -73.60 | -78.92 | -84.31 | -89.73 | -95.13 | -100.47 | -105.70 | -110.78 | -115.66 | -120.29 |
| EBIT | 780.00 | 836.40 | 893.49 | 950.88 | 1,008.11 | 1,064.72 | 1,120.21 | 1,174.06 | 1,225.77 | 1,274.80 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -192.44 | -206.36 | -220.45 | -234.60 | -248.73 | -262.69 | -276.38 | -289.67 | -302.43 | -314.52 |
| NOPAT | 587.56 | 630.04 | 673.05 | 716.28 | 759.39 | 802.03 | 843.83 | 884.39 | 923.34 | 960.27 |
| Capital Expenditures | -28.44 | -30.49 | -32.58 | -34.67 | -36.75 | -38.82 | -40.84 | -42.80 | -44.69 | -46.48 |
| NWC Investment | -66.38 | -67.67 | -68.51 | -68.86 | -68.68 | -67.92 | -66.58 | -64.62 | -62.04 | -58.83 |
| (+) D&A | 73.60 | 78.92 | 84.31 | 89.73 | 95.13 | 100.47 | 105.70 | 110.78 | 115.66 | 120.29 |
| Free Cash Flow | 566.34 | 610.80 | 656.27 | 702.47 | 749.09 | 795.75 | 842.11 | 887.75 | 932.27 | 975.25 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 | 38,648,000.00 |
| Metric | Jun-26 | Jun-27 | Jun-28 | Jun-29 | Jun-30 | Jun-31 | Jun-32 | Jun-33 | Jun-34 | Jun-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 7/1/26 | 7/1/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/1/29 | 7/1/30 | 7/1/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/1/33 | 7/1/34 |
| Period End | 6/30/26 | 6/30/27 | 6/30/28 | 6/30/29 | 6/30/30 | 6/30/31 | 6/30/32 | 6/30/33 | 6/30/34 | 6/30/35 |
| Mid-Point | 2/13/26 | 12/30/26 | 12/30/27 | 12/30/28 | 12/30/29 | 12/30/30 | 12/30/31 | 12/30/32 | 12/30/33 | 12/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.95 | 1.95 | 2.96 | 3.96 | 4.96 | 5.96 | 6.96 | 7.96 | 8.96 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | ||
| PV UFCF | 561.43 | 562.30 | 553.79 | 542.87 | 530.61 | 516.66 | 501.16 | 484.27 | 466.15 | 446.97 | Raw: 11,559.63 7,839.37 |
Raw: 15,049.78 6,603.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,590.36 | 11,769.85 |
| (-) Net Debt | 256.03 | 256.03 |
| Equity Value | 10,334.34 | 11,513.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 38.65 | 38.65 |
| Fair Value | $267.40 | $297.92 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.07% | 41.07% |
| Buy Price | $157.58 | $175.56 |
| Current Price | $259.75 | $259.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -39.34% | -32.41% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.42 | ||
| PV UFCF | 560.92 | 557.45 | 544.02 | 528.40 | 511.78 | 493.80 | 474.64 | 454.47 | 433.49 | 411.88 | Raw: 9,383.33 6,109.71 |
Raw: 12,216.40 4,917.11 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,812.28 | 9,887.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | 256.03 | 256.03 |
| Equity Value | 8,556.25 | 9,631.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 38.65 | 38.65 |
| Fair Value | $221.39 | $249.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.07% | 41.07% |
| Buy Price | $130.46 | $146.87 |
| Current Price | $259.75 | $259.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.77% | -43.46% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 561.95 | 567.24 | 563.82 | 557.87 | 550.32 | 540.81 | 529.44 | 516.32 | 501.60 | 485.41 | Raw: 15,006.26 10,603.42 |
Raw: 19,537.05 9,352.85 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 13,404.61 | 14,727.62 |
| (-) Net Debt | 256.03 | 256.03 |
| Equity Value | 13,148.58 | 14,471.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 38.65 | 38.65 |
| Fair Value | $340.21 | $374.45 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 41.07% | 41.07% |
| Buy Price | $200.49 | $220.66 |
| Current Price | $259.75 | $259.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -22.82% | -15.05% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,426.26 | 23,307.62 | 52,103.57 | 116,476.16 | 260,379.37 | 582,071.23 | 1,301,204.88 | 2,908,809.20 | 6,502,566.27 | 14,536,315.45 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% | 123.55% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.04 | 2.33 | 5.21 | 11.65 | 26.04 | 58.21 | 130.12 | 290.88 | 650.26 | 1,453.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.99 | 1.97 | 4.03 | 8.25 | 16.91 | 34.64 | 70.98 | 145.44 | 298.02 | 610.66 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-06-30 | $62.39 | 8.68% | $139.31 | 123.29% |
| 2019 | 2019-06-30 | $61.01 | 9.58% | $72.95 | 19.57% |
| 2018 | 2018-06-30 | $70.15 | 6.49% | $40.37 | -42.45% |
| 2017 | 2017-06-30 | $59.05 | 3.72% | $62.21 | 5.35% |
| 2016 | 2016-06-30 | $45.14 | 5.13% | $64.04 | 41.86% |
| 2015 | 2015-06-30 | $39.65 | 8.38% | $67.58 | 70.45% |
| 2014 | 2014-06-30 | $50.73 | 7.89% | $42.99 | -15.26% |
| 2013 | 2013-06-30 | $49.61 | 5.91% | $47.63 | -3.99% |
| 2012 | 2012-06-30 | $36.85 | 3.45% | $28.61 | -22.36% |
| 2011 | 2011-06-30 | $35.61 | 3.99% | $25.97 | -27.08% |
| 2010 | 2010-06-30 | $25.32 | 5.49% | $82.39 | 225.41% |
| 2009 | 2009-06-30 | $19.70 | 6.57% | $33.93 | 72.22% |
| 2008 | 2008-06-30 | $24.17 | 7.36% | $51.06 | 111.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-06-30 | $29.50 | 4.24% | $25.80 | -12.55% |
| 2006 | 2006-06-30 | $24.31 | 1.58% | $21.94 | -9.77% |
| 2005 | 2005-06-30 | $21.53 | 0.85% | $26.44 | 22.80% |
| 2004 | 2004-06-30 | $13.39 | 4.58% | $12.04 | -10.10% |
| 2003 | 2003-06-30 | $9.38 | 8.31% | $27.07 | 188.58% |
| 2002 | 2002-06-30 | $8.64 | 7.75% | $27.62 | 219.67% |
| 2001 | 2001-06-30 | $8.42 | 5.73% | $8.90 | 5.67% |
| 2000 | 2000-06-30 | $7.28 | 1.37% | $21.10 | 189.90% |
| 1999 | 1999-06-30 | $8.44 | -0.48% | $15.19 | 80.00% |
| 1998 | 1998-06-30 | $9.14 | 1.05% | $-24.33 | -366.22% |
| 1997 | 1997-06-30 | $10.67 | 3.23% | $6.81 | -36.17% |
| 1996 | 1996-06-30 | $7.96 | 6.86% | $4.02 | -49.55% |
| $194.23 - $216.70 | 10 |
| $216.70 - $239.18 | 57 |
| $239.18 - $261.65 | 132 |
| $261.65 - $284.13 | 168 |
| $284.13 - $306.60 | 184 |
| $306.60 - $329.07 | 164 |
| $329.07 - $351.55 | 109 |
| $351.55 - $374.02 | 66 |
| $374.02 - $396.50 | 47 |
| $396.50 - $418.97 | 27 |
| $418.97 - $441.45 | 16 |
| $441.45 - $463.92 | 9 |
| $463.92 - $486.40 | 5 |
| $486.40 - $508.87 | 3 |
| $508.87 - $531.34 | 0 |
| $531.34 - $553.82 | 1 |
| $553.82 - $576.29 | 0 |
| $576.29 - $598.77 | 1 |
| $598.77 - $621.24 | 0 |
| $621.24 - $643.72 | 1 |