Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $317.51 |
| 5Y Range | 208.74 – 301.99 |
| 5Y Selected | 255.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $35.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.67% |
| 10Y Range | 225.75 – 317.82 |
| 10Y Selected | 271.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $38.29 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -87.94% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7514 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0169 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5730 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0000 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5090 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0554 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0126 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0559 |
| Safety Score | 0.1409 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.34% | 18.52% | 16.71% | 14.89% | 13.08% | 11.26% | 9.45% | 7.63% | 5.82% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,051.97 | 1,246.82 | 1,455.13 | 1,671.83 | 1,890.45 | 2,103.34 | 2,302.02 | 2,477.68 | 2,621.77 | 2,726.64 |
| EBITDA | 143.82 | 170.46 | 198.94 | 228.57 | 258.45 | 287.56 | 314.72 | 338.74 | 358.44 | 372.77 |
| D&A | -7.27 | -8.61 | -10.05 | -11.55 | -13.06 | -14.53 | -15.91 | -17.12 | -18.11 | -18.84 |
| EBIT | 136.55 | 161.85 | 188.89 | 217.01 | 245.39 | 273.03 | 298.82 | 321.62 | 340.32 | 353.94 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -36.38 | -43.12 | -50.33 | -57.82 | -65.38 | -72.75 | -79.62 | -85.69 | -90.68 | -94.31 |
| NOPAT | 100.17 | 118.72 | 138.56 | 159.19 | 180.01 | 200.28 | 219.20 | 235.92 | 249.64 | 259.63 |
| Capital Expenditures | -8.07 | -9.56 | -11.16 | -12.83 | -14.50 | -16.14 | -17.66 | -19.01 | -20.11 | -20.92 |
| NWC Investment | 50.13 | 54.94 | 58.73 | 61.10 | 61.64 | 60.03 | 56.02 | 49.53 | 40.63 | 29.57 |
| (+) D&A | 7.27 | 8.61 | 10.05 | 11.55 | 13.06 | 14.53 | 15.91 | 17.12 | 18.11 | 18.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | 149.50 | 172.71 | 196.18 | 219.02 | 240.21 | 258.70 | 273.46 | 283.56 | 288.27 | 287.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 | 14,133,750.00 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 12/16/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.54 | 4.54 | 5.54 | 6.54 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 148.20 | 164.78 | 171.56 | 175.56 | 176.49 | 174.23 | 168.81 | 160.45 | 149.38 | 136.37 | Raw: 3,456.26 2,431.23 |
Raw: 4,131.26 1,878.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,267.82 | 3,504.45 |
| (-) Net Debt | -202.07 | -202.07 |
| Equity Value | 3,469.89 | 3,706.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.13 | 14.13 |
| Fair Value | $245.50 | $262.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $34.59 | $36.95 |
| Current Price | $317.51 | $317.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -89.11% | -88.36% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 148.06 | 163.97 | 169.17 | 171.54 | 170.88 | 167.16 | 160.49 | 151.15 | 139.43 | 126.14 | Raw: 2,838.71 1,924.56 |
Raw: 3,393.10 1,420.67 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,748.18 | 2,988.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -202.07 | -202.07 |
| Equity Value | 2,950.24 | 3,190.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.13 | 14.13 |
| Fair Value | $208.74 | $225.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $29.41 | $31.81 |
| Current Price | $317.51 | $317.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -90.74% | -89.98% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 148.34 | 165.60 | 174.01 | 179.71 | 182.34 | 181.66 | 177.64 | 170.41 | 160.13 | 147.54 | Raw: 4,405.26 3,216.24 |
Raw: 5,265.60 2,602.54 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,066.24 | 4,289.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -202.07 | -202.07 |
| Equity Value | 4,268.30 | 4,492.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 14.13 | 14.13 |
| Fair Value | $301.99 | $317.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.91% | 85.91% |
| Buy Price | $42.55 | $44.78 |
| Current Price | $317.51 | $317.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.60% | -85.90% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,200.34 | 5,291.07 | 12,723.25 | 30,595.13 | 73,570.98 | 176,913.41 | 425,417.15 | 1,022,984.91 | 2,459,934.04 | 5,915,312.58 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% | 140.47% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.22 | 0.53 | 1.27 | 3.06 | 7.36 | 17.69 | 42.54 | 102.30 | 245.99 | 591.53 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.21 | 0.46 | 1.02 | 2.25 | 4.95 | 10.92 | 24.07 | 53.01 | 116.84 | 257.53 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-01-31 | $42.11 | 21.89% | $121.02 | 187.38% |
| 2019 | 2019-01-31 | $42.22 | 23.17% | $-292.00 | -791.61% |
| 2018 | 2018-01-31 | $43.60 | 8.36% | $-100.03 | -329.43% |
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $73.75 | -13.60% | $147.14 | 99.51% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $30.47 | -24.89% | $-0.39 | -101.28% |
| 2015 | 2015-01-31 | $30.41 | -15.78% | $68.14 | 124.08% |
| 2014 | 2014-01-31 | $28.41 | 10.28% | $181.90 | 540.27% |
| 2013 | 2013-01-31 | $18.80 | 30.62% | $103.18 | 448.81% |
| 2012 | 2012-01-31 | $14.50 | 21.42% | $217.51 | 1,400.09% |
| 2011 | 2011-01-31 | $9.27 | 22.50% | $58.78 | 534.05% |
| 2010 | 2010-01-31 | $14.50 | 18.01% | $-26.30 | -281.38% |
| 2009 | 2009-01-31 | $11.24 | 2.87% | $-10.55 | -193.89% |
| 2008 | 2008-01-31 | $11.34 | -2.37% | $56.19 | 395.46% |
| 2007 | 2007-01-31 | $6.20 | -14.39% | $-17.50 | -382.31% |
| 2006 | 2006-01-31 | $2.35 | -0.01% | $2.19 | -6.71% |
| 2005 | 2005-01-31 | $5.65 | 17.79% | $-37.15 | -757.54% |
| 2004 | 2004-01-31 | $6.91 | 27.41% | $-18.86 | -373.01% |
| 2003 | 2003-01-31 | $7.50 | 34.53% | $42.70 | 469.35% |
| 2002 | 2002-01-31 | $6.20 | 4.52% | $8.97 | 44.68% |
| 2001 | 2001-01-31 | $8.44 | -18.62% | $-1.70 | -120.10% |
| 2000 | 2000-01-31 | $8.44 | -27.83% | $-10.09 | -219.61% |
| 1999 | 1999-01-31 | $11.72 | -22.89% | $7.16 | -38.87% |
| 1998 | 1998-01-31 | $10.78 | -2.03% | $6.07 | -43.71% |
| 1997 | 1997-01-31 | $15.47 | -4.65% | $10.06 | -34.98% |
| 1996 | 1996-01-31 | $24.38 | -9.04% | $30.74 | 26.07% |
| $181.65 - $196.04 | 4 |
| $196.04 - $210.43 | 17 |
| $210.43 - $224.83 | 78 |
| $224.83 - $239.22 | 120 |
| $239.22 - $253.62 | 174 |
| $253.62 - $268.01 | 167 |
| $268.01 - $282.40 | 155 |
| $282.40 - $296.80 | 97 |
| $296.80 - $311.19 | 60 |
| $311.19 - $325.58 | 34 |
| $325.58 - $339.98 | 37 |
| $339.98 - $354.37 | 18 |
| $354.37 - $368.77 | 15 |
| $368.77 - $383.16 | 7 |
| $383.16 - $397.55 | 3 |
| $397.55 - $411.95 | 5 |
| $411.95 - $426.34 | 2 |
| $426.34 - $440.73 | 2 |
| $440.73 - $455.13 | 1 |
| $455.13 - $469.52 | 4 |