Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $56.80 |
| 5Y Range | 848.73 – 1,225.74 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,037.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.41% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $172.08 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 202.95% |
| 10Y Range | 889.15 – 1,249.96 |
| 10Y Selected | 1,069.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.41% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $177.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 212.39% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3372 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5359 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0007 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1038 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0557 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6126 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2243 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0073 |
| Safety Score | 0.1659 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -0.75% | -0.23% | 0.30% | 0.83% | 1.36% | 1.89% | 2.42% | 2.94% | 3.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,761.81 | 4,751.05 | 4,765.41 | 4,804.99 | 4,870.27 | 4,962.17 | 5,082.02 | 5,231.61 | 5,413.24 | 5,629.77 |
| EBITDA | 4,139.29 | 4,129.93 | 4,142.42 | 4,176.82 | 4,233.57 | 4,313.46 | 4,417.64 | 4,547.67 | 4,705.56 | 4,893.78 |
| D&A | -238.48 | -237.94 | -238.66 | -240.64 | -243.91 | -248.52 | -254.52 | -262.01 | -271.11 | -281.95 |
| EBIT | 3,900.81 | 3,891.99 | 3,903.76 | 3,936.18 | 3,989.66 | 4,064.94 | 4,163.12 | 4,285.66 | 4,434.45 | 4,611.83 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,046.86 | -1,044.49 | -1,047.65 | -1,056.35 | -1,070.70 | -1,090.91 | -1,117.25 | -1,150.14 | -1,190.07 | -1,237.67 |
| NOPAT | 2,853.95 | 2,847.50 | 2,856.11 | 2,879.83 | 2,918.96 | 2,974.04 | 3,045.87 | 3,135.52 | 3,244.38 | 3,374.16 |
| Capital Expenditures | -91.00 | -90.80 | -91.07 | -91.83 | -93.08 | -94.83 | -97.12 | -99.98 | -103.45 | -107.59 |
| NWC Investment | -12.78 | -3.80 | 5.07 | 13.97 | 23.05 | 32.45 | 42.31 | 52.81 | 64.13 | 76.45 |
| (+) D&A | 238.48 | 237.94 | 238.66 | 240.64 | 243.91 | 248.52 | 254.52 | 262.01 | 271.11 | 281.95 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,988.65 | 2,990.85 | 3,008.77 | 3,042.62 | 3,092.85 | 3,160.17 | 3,245.58 | 3,350.37 | 3,476.16 | 3,624.97 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 | 48,675,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,962.74 | 2,873.42 | 2,649.57 | 2,455.94 | 2,288.30 | 2,143.12 | 2,017.50 | 1,908.96 | 1,815.46 | 1,735.30 | Raw: 46,309.91 32,803.45 |
Raw: 54,277.47 24,876.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 46,033.41 | 47,726.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,442.25 | -2,442.25 |
| Equity Value | 48,475.66 | 50,168.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 48.68 | 48.68 |
| Fair Value | $995.90 | $1,030.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.41% | 83.41% |
| Buy Price | $165.22 | $170.99 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 190.88% | 201.04% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,960.04 | 2,861.38 | 2,614.51 | 2,401.43 | 2,217.18 | 2,057.66 | 1,919.45 | 1,799.69 | 1,696.00 | 1,606.39 | Raw: 37,785.20 25,815.18 |
Raw: 44,286.09 18,703.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 38,869.72 | 40,837.26 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,442.25 | -2,442.25 |
| Equity Value | 41,311.97 | 43,279.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 48.68 | 48.68 |
| Fair Value | $848.73 | $889.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.41% | 83.41% |
| Buy Price | $140.80 | $147.51 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 147.90% | 159.70% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,965.47 | 2,885.61 | 2,685.44 | 2,512.21 | 2,362.38 | 2,232.97 | 2,121.52 | 2,025.96 | 1,944.56 | 1,875.89 | Raw: 59,632.73 43,809.34 |
Raw: 69,892.46 34,787.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 57,220.45 | 58,399.57 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,442.25 | -2,442.25 |
| Equity Value | 59,662.70 | 60,841.82 |
| (/) Shares Out | 48.68 | 48.68 |
| Fair Value | $1,225.74 | $1,249.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.41% | 83.41% |
| Buy Price | $203.35 | $207.37 |
| Current Price | $56.80 | $56.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 258.01% | 265.09% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 8,751.64 | 13,529.15 | 20,914.69 | 32,331.98 | 49,981.96 | 77,267.04 | 119,446.99 | 184,652.91 | 285,454.65 | 441,283.90 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% | 54.59% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.88 | 1.35 | 2.09 | 3.23 | 5.00 | 7.73 | 11.94 | 18.47 | 28.55 | 44.13 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.81 | 1.09 | 1.55 | 2.19 | 3.11 | 4.40 | 6.24 | 8.84 | 12.53 | 17.75 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $112.20 | 3.51% | $307.17 | 173.77% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $150.08 | -2.20% | $461.18 | 207.29% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $253.48 | -13.42% | $153.26 | -39.54% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $228.50 | -15.95% | $46.37 | -79.71% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $276.57 | -7.22% | $97.20 | -64.86% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $286.05 | 2.94% | $212.24 | -25.80% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $262.93 | 11.10% | $296.17 | 12.64% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $144.76 | 11.72% | $465.70 | 221.71% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $103.84 | 11.99% | $394.17 | 279.59% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $71.03 | 12.72% | $340.93 | 379.98% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $64.59 | 14.78% | $125.62 | 94.49% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $46.53 | 21.42% | $182.63 | 292.50% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $74.99 | 24.64% | $230.03 | 206.75% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $62.47 | 21.53% | $161.93 | 159.22% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $35.60 | 16.90% | $12.22 | -65.67% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $47.48 | 13.68% | $97.16 | 104.64% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $27.68 | 16.30% | $26.03 | -5.98% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $28.39 | 20.26% | $36.46 | 28.41% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $28.39 | 18.62% | $64.38 | 126.77% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $28.39 | 11.87% | $21.69 | -23.61% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $28.39 | 2.89% | $102.18 | 259.91% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $28.39 | -2.31% | $4.15 | -85.37% |
| $770.62 - $835.80 | 32 |
| $835.80 - $900.99 | 96 |
| $900.99 - $966.17 | 188 |
| $966.17 - $1,031.35 | 201 |
| $1,031.35 - $1,096.53 | 158 |
| $1,096.53 - $1,161.71 | 129 |
| $1,161.71 - $1,226.89 | 77 |
| $1,226.89 - $1,292.07 | 46 |
| $1,292.07 - $1,357.26 | 32 |
| $1,357.26 - $1,422.44 | 20 |
| $1,422.44 - $1,487.62 | 10 |
| $1,487.62 - $1,552.80 | 4 |
| $1,552.80 - $1,617.98 | 1 |
| $1,617.98 - $1,683.16 | 4 |
| $1,683.16 - $1,748.34 | 1 |
| $1,748.34 - $1,813.53 | 0 |
| $1,813.53 - $1,878.71 | 0 |
| $1,878.71 - $1,943.89 | 0 |
| $1,943.89 - $2,009.07 | 0 |
| $2,009.07 - $2,074.25 | 1 |