Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $25.61 |
| 5Y Range | 44.39 – 66.69 |
| 5Y Selected | 55.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.88% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $7.84 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.38% |
| 10Y Range | 45.69 – 66.24 |
| 10Y Selected | 55.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.88% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.14% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0416 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0219 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1340 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0103 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0908 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0020 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1266 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2459 |
| Safety Score | 0.1412 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -4.39% | -3.46% | -2.53% | -1.59% | -0.66% | 0.27% | 1.20% | 2.14% | 3.07% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 46.20 | 44.60 | 43.48 | 42.78 | 42.50 | 42.62 | 43.13 | 44.05 | 45.40 | 47.22 |
| EBITDA | 45.73 | 44.15 | 43.04 | 42.35 | 42.07 | 42.18 | 42.69 | 43.60 | 44.94 | 46.74 |
| D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBIT | 45.73 | 44.15 | 43.04 | 42.35 | 42.07 | 42.18 | 42.69 | 43.60 | 44.94 | 46.74 |
| Pro forma Taxes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NOPAT | 45.73 | 44.15 | 43.04 | 42.35 | 42.07 | 42.18 | 42.69 | 43.60 | 44.94 | 46.74 |
| Capital Expenditures | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NWC Investment | -0.20 | -0.15 | -0.10 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| (+) D&A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow | 45.54 | 44.00 | 42.93 | 42.29 | 42.04 | 42.20 | 42.74 | 43.69 | 45.07 | 46.91 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 | 10,372,962.75 |
| Metric | Jan-26 | Jan-27 | Jan-28 | Jan-29 | Jan-30 | Jan-31 | Jan-32 | Jan-33 | Jan-34 | Jan-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 7/31/25 | 2/1/26 | 2/1/27 | 2/1/28 | 2/1/29 | 2/1/30 | 2/1/31 | 2/1/32 | 2/1/33 | 2/1/34 |
| Period End | 1/31/26 | 1/31/27 | 1/31/28 | 1/31/29 | 1/31/30 | 1/31/31 | 1/31/32 | 1/31/33 | 1/31/34 | 1/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 10/31/25 | 8/2/26 | 8/2/27 | 8/1/28 | 8/2/29 | 8/2/30 | 8/2/31 | 8/1/32 | 8/2/33 | 8/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 2.54 | 3.55 | 4.55 | 5.55 | 6.55 | 7.55 | 8.55 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | ||
| PV UFCF | 45.14 | 41.98 | 37.54 | 33.90 | 30.86 | 28.39 | 26.36 | 24.70 | 23.35 | 22.28 | Raw: 605.19 425.33 |
Raw: 675.18 307.03 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 614.76 | 621.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.07 | 63.07 |
| Equity Value | 551.69 | 558.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.37 | 10.37 |
| Fair Value | $53.19 | $53.84 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.88% | 85.88% |
| Buy Price | $7.51 | $7.60 |
| Current Price | $25.61 | $25.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.68% | -70.32% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 45.10 | 41.78 | 37.02 | 33.12 | 29.88 | 27.24 | 25.06 | 23.27 | 21.80 | 20.61 | Raw: 497.02 336.64 |
Raw: 554.51 232.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 523.54 | 537.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.07 | 63.07 |
| Equity Value | 460.47 | 473.96 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.37 | 10.37 |
| Fair Value | $44.39 | $45.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.88% | 85.88% |
| Buy Price | $6.27 | $6.45 |
| Current Price | $25.61 | $25.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.52% | -74.81% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.51 | ||
| PV UFCF | 45.18 | 42.19 | 38.08 | 34.70 | 31.89 | 29.61 | 27.74 | 26.23 | 25.03 | 24.10 | Raw: 771.43 562.77 |
Raw: 860.65 425.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 754.82 | 750.15 |
| (-) Net Debt | 63.07 | 63.07 |
| Equity Value | 691.75 | 687.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10.37 | 10.37 |
| Fair Value | $66.69 | $66.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.88% | 85.88% |
| Buy Price | $9.42 | $9.35 |
| Current Price | $25.61 | $25.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.23% | -63.48% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 314.64 | 704.98 | 1,579.58 | 3,539.20 | 7,929.94 | 17,767.82 | 39,810.59 | 89,199.64 | 199,860.76 | 447,808.13 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% | 124.06% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.79 | 1.78 | 3.98 | 8.92 | 19.99 | 44.78 |
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.53 | 1.10 | 2.25 | 4.62 | 9.49 | 19.50 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2017-01-31 | $19.49 | -33.85% | $-9.96 | -151.08% |
| 2016 | 2016-01-31 | $16.70 | 31.72% | $-10.09 | -160.43% |
| $38.41 - $41.72 | 21 |
| $41.72 - $45.02 | 59 |
| $45.02 - $48.32 | 115 |
| $48.32 - $51.63 | 190 |
| $51.63 - $54.93 | 164 |
| $54.93 - $58.24 | 154 |
| $58.24 - $61.54 | 88 |
| $61.54 - $64.85 | 86 |
| $64.85 - $68.15 | 51 |
| $68.15 - $71.46 | 23 |
| $71.46 - $74.76 | 17 |
| $74.76 - $78.06 | 12 |
| $78.06 - $81.37 | 6 |
| $81.37 - $84.67 | 5 |
| $84.67 - $87.98 | 5 |
| $87.98 - $91.28 | 1 |
| $91.28 - $94.59 | 0 |
| $94.59 - $97.89 | 0 |
| $97.89 - $101.20 | 1 |
| $101.20 - $104.50 | 2 |