Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $40.28 |
| 5Y Range | 55.49 – 83.36 |
| 5Y Selected | 69.42 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.86% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $15.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.84% |
| 10Y Range | 59.57 – 87.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 73.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.86% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $16.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.71% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6742 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8046 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7261 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3118 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7210 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6721 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1060 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0719 |
| Safety Score | 0.2214 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.43% | 3.50% | 3.56% | 3.62% | 3.68% | 3.75% | 3.81% | 3.87% | 3.94% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,243.18 | 1,286.63 | 1,332.42 | 1,380.67 | 1,431.54 | 1,485.18 | 1,541.78 | 1,601.51 | 1,664.56 | 1,731.14 |
| EBITDA | 906.69 | 938.38 | 971.77 | 1,006.96 | 1,044.06 | 1,083.19 | 1,124.46 | 1,168.02 | 1,214.01 | 1,262.57 |
| D&A | -1.16 | -1.20 | -1.24 | -1.28 | -1.33 | -1.38 | -1.43 | -1.49 | -1.55 | -1.61 |
| EBIT | 905.53 | 937.18 | 970.53 | 1,005.67 | 1,042.73 | 1,081.81 | 1,123.03 | 1,166.53 | 1,212.46 | 1,260.96 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -195.37 | -202.20 | -209.39 | -216.98 | -224.97 | -233.40 | -242.30 | -251.68 | -261.59 | -272.06 |
| NOPAT | 710.16 | 734.98 | 761.13 | 788.70 | 817.76 | 848.40 | 880.73 | 914.85 | 950.87 | 988.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -143.98 | -149.01 | -154.31 | -159.90 | -165.79 | -172.00 | -178.56 | -185.47 | -192.78 | -200.49 |
| NWC Investment | 25.74 | 27.12 | 28.57 | 30.11 | 31.75 | 33.48 | 35.32 | 37.27 | 39.35 | 41.55 |
| (+) D&A | 1.16 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.49 | 1.55 | 1.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 593.09 | 614.29 | 636.64 | 660.20 | 685.05 | 711.26 | 738.93 | 768.14 | 798.99 | 831.58 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 | 151,629,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 587.94 | 590.17 | 560.63 | 532.90 | 506.84 | 482.36 | 459.33 | 437.67 | 417.28 | 398.08 | Raw: 10,476.93 7,421.29 |
Raw: 12,717.95 5,828.80 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 10,199.78 | 10,802.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 145.77 | 145.77 |
| Equity Value | 10,054.01 | 10,656.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 151.63 | 151.63 |
| Fair Value | $66.31 | $70.28 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.86% | 77.86% |
| Buy Price | $14.68 | $15.56 |
| Current Price | $40.28 | $40.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -63.55% | -61.37% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.65 | 0.59 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 587.41 | 587.70 | 553.21 | 521.07 | 491.09 | 463.12 | 437.01 | 412.62 | 389.82 | 368.51 | Raw: 8,517.62 5,819.31 |
Raw: 10,339.55 4,366.74 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,559.80 | 9,178.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | 145.77 | 145.77 |
| Equity Value | 8,414.03 | 9,032.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 151.63 | 151.63 |
| Fair Value | $55.49 | $59.57 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.86% | 77.86% |
| Buy Price | $12.29 | $13.19 |
| Current Price | $40.28 | $40.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.50% | -67.26% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 588.49 | 592.67 | 568.22 | 545.11 | 523.25 | 502.58 | 483.01 | 464.49 | 446.95 | 430.33 | Raw: 13,567.55 9,967.44 |
Raw: 16,469.66 8,197.44 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,785.18 | 13,342.55 |
| (-) Net Debt | 145.77 | 145.77 |
| Equity Value | 12,639.41 | 13,196.79 |
| (/) Shares Out | 151.63 | 151.63 |
| Fair Value | $83.36 | $87.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 77.86% | 77.86% |
| Buy Price | $18.46 | $19.27 |
| Current Price | $40.28 | $40.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.18% | -52.16% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,992.56 | 7,311.18 | 17,862.06 | 43,639.06 | 106,615.25 | 260,473.34 | 636,366.39 | 1,554,716.42 | 3,798,351.37 | 9,279,810.10 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% | 144.31% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.30 | 0.73 | 1.79 | 4.36 | 10.66 | 26.05 | 63.64 | 155.47 | 379.84 | 927.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.68 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.28 | 0.59 | 1.32 | 2.96 | 6.63 | 14.84 | 33.23 | 74.43 | 166.67 | 373.23 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $20.49 | 2.89% | $37.45 | 82.78% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $20.49 | 3.43% | $55.86 | 172.63% |
| $48.39 - $52.19 | 12 |
| $52.19 - $55.98 | 34 |
| $55.98 - $59.78 | 72 |
| $59.78 - $63.57 | 130 |
| $63.57 - $67.37 | 127 |
| $67.37 - $71.16 | 168 |
| $71.16 - $74.96 | 134 |
| $74.96 - $78.75 | 100 |
| $78.75 - $82.55 | 66 |
| $82.55 - $86.35 | 39 |
| $86.35 - $90.14 | 46 |
| $90.14 - $93.94 | 22 |
| $93.94 - $97.73 | 9 |
| $97.73 - $101.53 | 19 |
| $101.53 - $105.32 | 5 |
| $105.32 - $109.12 | 7 |
| $109.12 - $112.91 | 4 |
| $112.91 - $116.71 | 3 |
| $116.71 - $120.51 | 1 |
| $120.51 - $124.30 | 2 |