Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $140.51 |
| 5Y Range | 57.51 – 90.97 |
| 5Y Selected | 74.24 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.06% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $40.04 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.50% |
| 10Y Range | 63.03 – 96.73 |
| 10Y Selected | 79.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.06% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $43.09 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.34% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.3001 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9076 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8686 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7325 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0484 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8472 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0032 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6836 |
| Safety Score | 0.5394 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.42% | 5.27% | 5.11% | 4.95% | 4.79% | 4.63% | 4.47% | 4.32% | 4.16% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,324.89 | 7,710.63 | 8,104.47 | 8,505.61 | 8,913.14 | 9,326.10 | 9,743.42 | 10,164.00 | 10,586.64 | 11,010.11 |
| EBITDA | 1,862.85 | 1,960.95 | 2,061.11 | 2,163.13 | 2,266.77 | 2,371.79 | 2,477.93 | 2,584.89 | 2,692.37 | 2,800.07 |
| D&A | -339.59 | -357.47 | -375.73 | -394.33 | -413.22 | -432.37 | -451.72 | -471.22 | -490.81 | -510.44 |
| EBIT | 1,523.26 | 1,603.47 | 1,685.38 | 1,768.80 | 1,853.55 | 1,939.42 | 2,026.21 | 2,113.67 | 2,201.56 | 2,289.62 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -226.19 | -238.10 | -250.26 | -262.65 | -275.23 | -287.98 | -300.87 | -313.86 | -326.91 | -339.98 |
| NOPAT | 1,297.07 | 1,365.38 | 1,435.12 | 1,506.15 | 1,578.32 | 1,651.44 | 1,725.34 | 1,799.81 | 1,874.66 | 1,949.64 |
| Capital Expenditures | -296.57 | -312.19 | -328.13 | -344.37 | -360.87 | -377.59 | -394.49 | -411.52 | -428.63 | -445.78 |
| NWC Investment | -46.14 | -47.22 | -48.21 | -49.11 | -49.89 | -50.55 | -51.09 | -51.49 | -51.74 | -51.84 |
| (+) D&A | 339.59 | 357.47 | 375.73 | 394.33 | 413.22 | 432.37 | 451.72 | 471.22 | 490.81 | 510.44 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,293.96 | 1,363.44 | 1,434.51 | 1,507.00 | 1,580.78 | 1,655.66 | 1,731.48 | 1,808.03 | 1,885.10 | 1,962.47 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 | 285,250,000.00 |
| Metric | Oct-26 | Oct-27 | Oct-28 | Oct-29 | Oct-30 | Oct-31 | Oct-32 | Oct-33 | Oct-34 | Oct-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 10/31/25 | 11/1/26 | 11/1/27 | 11/1/28 | 11/1/29 | 11/1/30 | 11/1/31 | 11/1/32 | 11/1/33 | 11/1/34 |
| Period End | 10/31/26 | 10/31/27 | 10/31/28 | 10/31/29 | 10/31/30 | 10/31/31 | 10/31/32 | 10/31/33 | 10/31/34 | 10/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 5/1/26 | 5/2/27 | 5/1/28 | 5/2/29 | 5/2/30 | 5/2/31 | 5/1/32 | 5/2/33 | 5/2/34 | 5/2/35 |
| Time (t) | 0.29 | 1.29 | 2.29 | 3.29 | 4.29 | 5.29 | 6.29 | 7.30 | 8.30 | 9.30 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,261.69 | 1,218.58 | 1,175.17 | 1,131.61 | 1,088.02 | 1,044.53 | 1,001.27 | 957.51 | 915.07 | 873.19 | Raw: 24,375.65 16,062.52 |
Raw: 30,261.34 12,890.91 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,937.60 | 23,557.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,836.00 | 1,836.00 |
| Equity Value | 20,101.60 | 21,721.54 |
| (/) Shares Out | 285.25 | 285.25 |
| Fair Value | $70.47 | $76.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.06% | 46.06% |
| Buy Price | $38.01 | $41.07 |
| Current Price | $140.51 | $140.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -72.95% | -70.77% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.80 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.41 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,258.36 | 1,204.32 | 1,150.87 | 1,098.14 | 1,046.25 | 995.31 | 945.42 | 895.81 | 848.33 | 802.15 | Raw: 19,789.09 12,482.52 |
Raw: 24,567.32 9,570.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 18,240.47 | 19,815.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,836.00 | 1,836.00 |
| Equity Value | 16,404.47 | 17,979.13 |
| (/) Shares Out | 285.25 | 285.25 |
| Fair Value | $57.51 | $63.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.06% | 46.06% |
| Buy Price | $31.02 | $34.00 |
| Current Price | $140.51 | $140.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.92% | -75.80% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.48 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,265.06 | 1,233.14 | 1,200.22 | 1,166.42 | 1,131.86 | 1,096.67 | 1,060.97 | 1,024.08 | 987.75 | 951.26 | Raw: 31,637.01 21,787.57 |
Raw: 39,276.00 18,311.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 27,784.27 | 29,428.53 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,836.00 | 1,836.00 |
| Equity Value | 25,948.27 | 27,592.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 285.25 | 285.25 |
| Fair Value | $90.97 | $96.73 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.06% | 46.06% |
| Buy Price | $49.07 | $52.18 |
| Current Price | $140.51 | $140.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -65.08% | -62.87% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 17,241.93 | 42,787.01 | 106,178.85 | 263,489.98 | 653,868.13 | 1,622,617.83 | 4,026,635.48 | 9,992,367.26 | 24,796,732.66 | 61,534,762.98 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% | 148.16% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.72 | 4.28 | 10.62 | 26.35 | 65.39 | 162.26 | 402.66 | 999.24 | 2,479.67 | 6,153.48 |
| Discount Factor | 0.93 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.61 | 3.51 | 7.97 | 18.14 | 41.25 | 93.83 | 213.25 | 485.05 | 1,103.31 | 2,509.62 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-10-31 | $102.09 | 3.13% | $41.84 | -59.02% |
| 2019 | 2019-10-31 | $75.75 | 6.35% | $51.36 | -32.20% |
| 2018 | 2018-10-31 | $64.79 | 9.74% | $66.20 | 2.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-10-31 | $68.03 | 10.40% | $54.10 | -20.48% |
| 2016 | 2016-10-31 | $43.57 | 9.28% | $46.16 | 5.95% |
| 2015 | 2015-10-31 | $37.76 | 7.55% | $25.66 | -32.04% |
| 2014 | 2014-10-31 | $39.53 | 7.81% | $33.71 | -14.72% |
| 2013 | 2013-10-31 | $36.30 | 5.97% | $54.67 | 50.61% |
| 2012 | 2012-10-31 | $25.74 | 4.50% | $54.45 | 111.53% |
| 2011 | 2011-10-31 | $26.51 | -7.89% | $36.31 | 36.96% |
| 2010 | 2010-10-31 | $24.85 | -13.88% | $10.48 | -57.82% |
| 2009 | 2009-10-31 | $17.69 | -10.23% | $6.38 | -63.93% |
| 2008 | 2008-10-31 | $15.87 | -0.24% | $22.71 | 43.09% |
| 2007 | 2007-10-31 | $26.35 | 8.15% | $43.59 | 65.42% |
| 2006 | 2006-10-31 | $23.99 | 6.39% | $22.45 | -6.40% |
| 2005 | 2005-10-31 | $21.57 | 5.54% | $33.98 | 57.51% |
| 2004 | 2004-10-31 | $16.65 | 7.59% | $27.76 | 66.75% |
| 2003 | 2003-10-31 | $16.79 | 4.15% | $-12.34 | -173.52% |
| 2002 | 2002-10-31 | $9.26 | 4.98% | $-30.64 | -430.91% |
| 2001 | 2001-10-31 | $15.00 | -1.30% | $21.79 | 45.27% |
| 2000 | 2000-10-31 | $31.20 | -9.93% | $2.27 | -92.72% |
| 1999 | 1999-10-31 | $28.80 | -13.39% | $0.57 | -98.01% |
| 1998 | 1998-10-31 | $28.80 | -17.65% | $5.05 | -82.48% |
| $47.98 - $53.47 | 5 |
| $53.47 - $58.95 | 45 |
| $58.95 - $64.43 | 113 |
| $64.43 - $69.91 | 165 |
| $69.91 - $75.39 | 158 |
| $75.39 - $80.87 | 152 |
| $80.87 - $86.36 | 119 |
| $86.36 - $91.84 | 90 |
| $91.84 - $97.32 | 54 |
| $97.32 - $102.80 | 30 |
| $102.80 - $108.28 | 17 |
| $108.28 - $113.76 | 15 |
| $113.76 - $119.24 | 15 |
| $119.24 - $124.73 | 3 |
| $124.73 - $130.21 | 7 |
| $130.21 - $135.69 | 4 |
| $135.69 - $141.17 | 5 |
| $141.17 - $146.65 | 2 |
| $146.65 - $152.13 | 0 |
| $152.13 - $157.62 | 0 |