Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.73 |
| 5Y Range | 25.20 – 57.90 |
| 5Y Selected | 41.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.23% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.44 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 561.16% |
| 10Y Range | 28.54 – 63.81 |
| 10Y Selected | 46.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.23% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $12.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 634.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8887 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9426 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0004 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1674 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0123 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4425 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0362 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4851 |
| Safety Score | 0.2753 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.44% | 11.51% | 10.57% | 9.63% | 8.69% | 7.75% | 6.81% | 5.88% | 4.94% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,829.45 | 7,615.23 | 8,419.97 | 9,230.76 | 10,033.02 | 10,810.87 | 11,547.59 | 12,226.18 | 12,829.93 | 13,343.13 |
| EBITDA | 2,314.38 | 2,580.67 | 2,853.38 | 3,128.14 | 3,400.01 | 3,663.61 | 3,913.27 | 4,143.23 | 4,347.84 | 4,521.75 |
| D&A | -896.36 | -999.50 | -1,105.12 | -1,211.54 | -1,316.83 | -1,418.92 | -1,515.62 | -1,604.68 | -1,683.93 | -1,751.28 |
| EBIT | 1,418.01 | 1,581.17 | 1,748.26 | 1,916.60 | 2,083.18 | 2,244.69 | 2,397.65 | 2,538.55 | 2,663.91 | 2,770.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -386.95 | -431.47 | -477.06 | -523.00 | -568.46 | -612.53 | -654.27 | -692.72 | -726.93 | -756.00 |
| NOPAT | 1,031.07 | 1,149.70 | 1,271.20 | 1,393.60 | 1,514.72 | 1,632.16 | 1,743.38 | 1,845.83 | 1,936.98 | 2,014.46 |
| Capital Expenditures | -610.97 | -681.26 | -753.25 | -825.79 | -897.56 | -967.14 | -1,033.05 | -1,093.76 | -1,147.77 | -1,193.68 |
| NWC Investment | 10.35 | 10.76 | 11.02 | 11.11 | 10.99 | 10.66 | 10.09 | 9.30 | 8.27 | 7.03 |
| (+) D&A | 896.36 | 999.50 | 1,105.12 | 1,211.54 | 1,316.83 | 1,418.92 | 1,515.62 | 1,604.68 | 1,683.93 | 1,751.28 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,326.82 | 1,478.70 | 1,634.08 | 1,790.46 | 1,944.99 | 2,094.59 | 2,236.04 | 2,366.05 | 2,481.41 | 2,579.09 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 | 1,421,486,713.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,318.19 | 1,434.99 | 1,485.65 | 1,525.02 | 1,552.03 | 1,565.87 | 1,566.06 | 1,552.47 | 1,525.35 | 1,485.29 | Raw: 54,916.38 42,415.25 |
Raw: 72,820.32 40,591.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 49,731.14 | 55,602.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | 218.95 | 218.95 |
| Equity Value | 49,512.19 | 55,383.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,421.49 | 1,421.49 |
| Fair Value | $34.83 | $38.96 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.23% | 75.23% |
| Buy Price | $8.63 | $9.65 |
| Current Price | $1.73 | $1.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 398.71% | 457.85% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,316.96 | 1,428.85 | 1,465.56 | 1,490.44 | 1,502.76 | 1,502.08 | 1,488.32 | 1,461.71 | 1,422.85 | 1,372.62 | Raw: 38,736.04 28,833.56 |
Raw: 51,364.84 26,336.56 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 36,038.13 | 40,788.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | 218.95 | 218.95 |
| Equity Value | 35,819.18 | 40,569.75 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,421.49 | 1,421.49 |
| Fair Value | $25.20 | $28.54 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.23% | 75.23% |
| Buy Price | $6.24 | $7.07 |
| Current Price | $1.73 | $1.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 260.79% | 308.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,319.43 | 1,441.22 | 1,506.20 | 1,560.75 | 1,603.41 | 1,633.00 | 1,648.65 | 1,649.80 | 1,636.31 | 1,608.40 | Raw: 93,662.07 75,088.24 |
Raw: 124,197.96 75,321.83 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 82,519.26 | 90,929.00 |
| (-) Net Debt | 218.95 | 218.95 |
| Equity Value | 82,300.30 | 90,710.05 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,421.49 | 1,421.49 |
| Fair Value | $57.90 | $63.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 75.23% | 75.23% |
| Buy Price | $14.34 | $15.81 |
| Current Price | $1.73 | $1.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 728.97% | 813.68% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 19,947.98 | 33,343.22 | 55,733.48 | 93,159.00 | 155,716.10 | 260,280.82 | 435,061.68 | 727,209.42 | 1,215,536.94 | 2,031,780.68 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% | 67.15% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.99 | 3.33 | 5.57 | 9.32 | 15.57 | 26.03 | 43.51 | 72.72 | 121.55 | 203.18 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.91 | 2.84 | 4.45 | 6.96 | 10.91 | 17.08 | 26.74 | 41.88 | 65.58 | 102.70 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.22 | 19.27% | $12.18 | 32.14% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.06 | 11.88% | $3.64 | -59.80% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $8.59 | 13.94% | $4.45 | -48.24% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $9.24 | 22.35% | $4.45 | -51.88% |
| $19.89 - $32.68 | 230 |
| $32.68 - $45.46 | 437 |
| $45.46 - $58.25 | 196 |
| $58.25 - $71.04 | 78 |
| $71.04 - $83.83 | 22 |
| $83.83 - $96.62 | 14 |
| $96.62 - $109.41 | 9 |
| $109.41 - $122.19 | 2 |
| $122.19 - $134.98 | 3 |
| $134.98 - $147.77 | 5 |
| $147.77 - $160.56 | 1 |
| $160.56 - $173.35 | 1 |
| $173.35 - $186.14 | 0 |
| $186.14 - $198.93 | 0 |
| $198.93 - $211.71 | 1 |
| $211.71 - $224.50 | 0 |
| $224.50 - $237.29 | 0 |
| $237.29 - $250.08 | 0 |
| $250.08 - $262.87 | 0 |
| $262.87 - $275.66 | 1 |