Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.05 |
| 5Y Range | 3.02 – 6.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 4.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.44% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 9.86% |
| 10Y Range | 3.25 – 6.76 |
| 10Y Selected | 5.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.44% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 16.02% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4282 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6336 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2588 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4267 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3314 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3857 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4016 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3596 |
| Safety Score | 0.2433 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.01% | 5.79% | 5.57% | 5.34% | 5.12% | 4.90% | 4.67% | 4.45% | 4.22% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 898.74 | 950.78 | 1,003.71 | 1,057.34 | 1,111.47 | 1,165.88 | 1,220.35 | 1,274.62 | 1,328.46 | 1,381.60 |
| EBITDA | 142.00 | 150.22 | 158.59 | 167.06 | 175.61 | 184.21 | 192.81 | 201.39 | 209.90 | 218.29 |
| D&A | -6.30 | -6.66 | -7.04 | -7.41 | -7.79 | -8.17 | -8.55 | -8.93 | -9.31 | -9.68 |
| EBIT | 135.70 | 143.56 | 151.55 | 159.65 | 167.82 | 176.04 | 184.26 | 192.46 | 200.58 | 208.61 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -43.52 | -46.04 | -48.61 | -51.20 | -53.83 | -56.46 | -59.10 | -61.73 | -64.33 | -66.91 |
| NOPAT | 92.18 | 97.51 | 102.94 | 108.44 | 114.00 | 119.58 | 125.16 | 130.73 | 136.25 | 141.70 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.34 | -2.47 | -2.61 | -2.75 | -2.89 | -3.03 | -3.17 | -3.32 | -3.46 | -3.59 |
| NWC Investment | 0.99 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| (+) D&A | 6.30 | 6.66 | 7.04 | 7.41 | 7.79 | 8.17 | 8.55 | 8.93 | 9.31 | 9.68 |
| Free Cash Flow | 97.13 | 102.72 | 108.40 | 114.15 | 119.95 | 125.78 | 131.60 | 137.41 | 143.16 | 148.83 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 | 741,510,318.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 96.50 | 99.75 | 98.63 | 97.24 | 95.74 | 94.05 | 92.20 | 90.20 | 88.04 | 85.75 | Raw: 3,216.33 2,484.80 |
Raw: 3,990.63 2,225.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,972.66 | 3,163.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.67 | -43.67 |
| Equity Value | 3,016.33 | 3,207.50 |
| (/) Shares Out | 741.51 | 741.51 |
| Fair Value | $4.07 | $4.33 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.44% | 78.44% |
| Buy Price | $0.88 | $0.93 |
| Current Price | $1.05 | $1.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -16.47% | -11.18% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 96.41 | 99.33 | 97.30 | 95.04 | 92.70 | 90.22 | 87.63 | 84.92 | 82.12 | 79.25 | Raw: 2,301.19 1,713.35 |
Raw: 2,855.18 1,464.78 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,194.13 | 2,369.71 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.67 | -43.67 |
| Equity Value | 2,237.80 | 2,413.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 741.51 | 741.51 |
| Fair Value | $3.02 | $3.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.44% | 78.44% |
| Buy Price | $0.65 | $0.70 |
| Current Price | $1.05 | $1.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.03% | -33.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 96.59 | 100.18 | 99.98 | 99.52 | 98.91 | 98.09 | 97.07 | 95.85 | 94.45 | 92.86 | Raw: 5,306.03 4,254.90 |
Raw: 6,583.40 3,994.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,750.08 | 4,968.42 |
| (-) Net Debt | -43.67 | -43.67 |
| Equity Value | 4,793.75 | 5,012.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 741.51 | 741.51 |
| Fair Value | $6.46 | $6.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 78.44% | 78.44% |
| Buy Price | $1.39 | $1.46 |
| Current Price | $1.05 | $1.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 32.74% | 38.79% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,158.21 | 5,614.96 | 9,982.79 | 17,748.34 | 31,554.65 | 56,100.79 | 99,741.20 | 177,329.19 | 315,272.34 | 560,520.50 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% | 77.79% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.32 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 1.77 | 3.16 | 5.61 | 9.97 | 17.73 | 31.53 | 56.05 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.30 | 0.48 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 2.21 | 3.68 | 6.13 | 10.22 | 17.02 | 28.35 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.40 | 13.64% | $4.74 | 238.33% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.38 | 8.02% | $2.13 | 54.53% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.31 | -2.74% | $0.49 | -62.81% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.41 | 6.50% | $0.87 | -38.58% |
| $2.32 - $3.04 | 53 |
| $3.04 - $3.76 | 242 |
| $3.76 - $4.48 | 265 |
| $4.48 - $5.20 | 193 |
| $5.20 - $5.91 | 90 |
| $5.91 - $6.63 | 72 |
| $6.63 - $7.35 | 33 |
| $7.35 - $8.07 | 16 |
| $8.07 - $8.79 | 12 |
| $8.79 - $9.51 | 4 |
| $9.51 - $10.23 | 8 |
| $10.23 - $10.95 | 4 |
| $10.95 - $11.67 | 2 |
| $11.67 - $12.39 | 1 |
| $12.39 - $13.11 | 1 |
| $13.11 - $13.83 | 1 |
| $13.83 - $14.55 | 2 |
| $14.55 - $15.27 | 0 |
| $15.27 - $15.99 | 0 |
| $15.99 - $16.70 | 1 |