Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.10 |
| 5Y Range | 45.03 – 116.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 80.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.25% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $23.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 192.73% |
| 10Y Range | 51.64 – 129.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 90.71 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.25% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $26.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 228.69% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7520 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8484 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5065 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.5852 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5744 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6305 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0538 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0342 |
| Safety Score | 0.2935 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 20.40% | 18.57% | 16.75% | 14.93% | 13.11% | 11.29% | 9.47% | 7.64% | 5.82% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,117.91 | 4,882.77 | 5,700.73 | 6,551.88 | 7,410.74 | 8,247.18 | 9,027.80 | 9,717.83 | 10,283.58 | 10,694.92 |
| EBITDA | 364.71 | 432.46 | 504.90 | 580.28 | 656.35 | 730.43 | 799.57 | 860.69 | 910.79 | 947.22 |
| D&A | -107.90 | -127.94 | -149.37 | -171.68 | -194.18 | -216.10 | -236.55 | -254.63 | -269.46 | -280.23 |
| EBIT | 256.81 | 304.51 | 355.53 | 408.61 | 462.17 | 514.34 | 563.02 | 606.05 | 641.34 | 666.99 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -53.73 | -63.71 | -74.38 | -85.49 | -96.69 | -107.61 | -117.79 | -126.80 | -134.18 | -139.55 |
| NOPAT | 203.08 | 240.80 | 281.14 | 323.12 | 365.48 | 406.73 | 445.23 | 479.26 | 507.16 | 527.44 |
| Capital Expenditures | -154.92 | -183.69 | -214.46 | -246.48 | -278.79 | -310.26 | -339.62 | -365.58 | -386.87 | -402.34 |
| NWC Investment | 29.46 | 32.30 | 34.55 | 35.95 | 36.27 | 35.33 | 32.97 | 29.14 | 23.89 | 17.37 |
| (+) D&A | 107.90 | 127.94 | 149.37 | 171.68 | 194.18 | 216.10 | 236.55 | 254.63 | 269.46 | 280.23 |
| Free Cash Flow | 185.53 | 217.36 | 250.60 | 284.26 | 317.14 | 347.89 | 375.12 | 397.45 | 413.64 | 422.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 | 137,844,500.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 184.40 | 211.45 | 229.30 | 244.49 | 256.56 | 264.71 | 268.46 | 267.54 | 261.89 | 251.73 | Raw: 9,936.74 7,796.01 |
Raw: 13,244.51 7,649.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,922.20 | 10,089.78 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.40 | 34.40 |
| Equity Value | 8,887.80 | 10,055.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 137.84 | 137.84 |
| Fair Value | $64.48 | $72.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.25% | 74.25% |
| Buy Price | $16.60 | $18.78 |
| Current Price | $8.10 | $8.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 104.97% | 131.90% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 184.22 | 210.56 | 226.21 | 238.92 | 248.38 | 253.88 | 255.09 | 251.84 | 244.22 | 232.56 | Raw: 6,790.80 5,133.92 |
Raw: 9,051.34 4,806.92 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,242.21 | 7,152.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.40 | 34.40 |
| Equity Value | 6,207.81 | 7,118.41 |
| (/) Shares Out | 137.84 | 137.84 |
| Fair Value | $45.03 | $51.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.25% | 74.25% |
| Buy Price | $11.60 | $13.30 |
| Current Price | $8.10 | $8.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 43.17% | 64.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 184.57 | 212.35 | 232.46 | 250.24 | 265.08 | 276.11 | 282.68 | 284.38 | 281.02 | 272.68 | Raw: 18,360.24 14,954.06 |
Raw: 24,472.05 15,382.50 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,098.77 | 17,924.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34.40 | 34.40 |
| Equity Value | 16,064.37 | 17,889.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 137.84 | 137.84 |
| Fair Value | $116.54 | $129.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 74.25% | 74.25% |
| Buy Price | $30.01 | $33.42 |
| Current Price | $8.10 | $8.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 270.48% | 312.58% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 10,632.93 | 17,077.98 | 27,429.62 | 44,055.82 | 70,759.82 | 113,650.18 | 182,538.12 | 293,181.81 | 470,891.07 | 756,317.04 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% | 60.61% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.06 | 1.71 | 2.74 | 4.41 | 7.08 | 11.37 | 18.25 | 29.32 | 47.09 | 75.63 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.02 | 1.47 | 2.22 | 3.35 | 5.06 | 7.65 | 11.56 | 17.46 | 26.38 | 39.84 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $9.86 | 20.47% | $21.09 | 113.92% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $9.69 | 23.69% | $28.02 | 189.18% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $9.19 | 23.28% | $50.23 | 446.52% |
| $19.23 - $117.79 | 899 |
| $117.79 - $216.34 | 87 |
| $216.34 - $314.90 | 9 |
| $314.90 - $413.46 | 2 |
| $413.46 - $512.01 | 2 |
| $512.01 - $610.57 | 0 |
| $610.57 - $709.12 | 0 |
| $709.12 - $807.68 | 0 |
| $807.68 - $906.23 | 0 |
| $906.23 - $1,004.79 | 0 |
| $1,004.79 - $1,103.34 | 0 |
| $1,103.34 - $1,201.90 | 0 |
| $1,201.90 - $1,300.46 | 0 |
| $1,300.46 - $1,399.01 | 0 |
| $1,399.01 - $1,497.57 | 0 |
| $1,497.57 - $1,596.12 | 0 |
| $1,596.12 - $1,694.68 | 0 |
| $1,694.68 - $1,793.23 | 0 |
| $1,793.23 - $1,891.79 | 0 |
| $1,891.79 - $1,990.35 | 0 |