Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $99.85 |
| 5Y Range | 78.08 – 197.26 |
| 5Y Selected | 137.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.17% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $75.70 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -24.18% |
| 10Y Range | 120.38 – 304.72 |
| 10Y Selected | 212.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.17% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $116.88 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 17.06% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9843 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9843 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9872 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9872 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9939 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9939 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1455 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1455 |
| Safety Score | 0.5499 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 39.69% | 35.72% | 31.76% | 27.79% | 23.83% | 19.86% | 15.90% | 11.93% | 7.97% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 85.31 | 115.79 | 152.55 | 194.95 | 241.40 | 289.34 | 335.33 | 375.34 | 405.23 | 421.44 |
| EBITDA | 20.82 | 28.25 | 37.23 | 47.57 | 58.91 | 70.61 | 81.83 | 91.59 | 98.89 | 102.84 |
| D&A | -6.03 | -8.19 | -10.79 | -13.79 | -17.08 | -20.47 | -23.72 | -26.55 | -28.67 | -29.81 |
| EBIT | 14.78 | 20.06 | 26.44 | 33.78 | 41.83 | 50.14 | 58.11 | 65.04 | 70.22 | 73.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -0.38 | -0.51 | -0.67 | -0.86 | -1.06 | -1.27 | -1.48 | -1.65 | -1.79 | -1.86 |
| NOPAT | 14.41 | 19.55 | 25.76 | 32.92 | 40.77 | 48.86 | 56.63 | 63.39 | 68.44 | 71.17 |
| Capital Expenditures | -17.95 | -24.36 | -32.09 | -41.01 | -50.79 | -60.87 | -70.55 | -78.97 | -85.25 | -88.66 |
| NWC Investment | -0.37 | -0.46 | -0.56 | -0.65 | -0.71 | -0.73 | -0.70 | -0.61 | -0.46 | -0.25 |
| (+) D&A | 6.03 | 8.19 | 10.79 | 13.79 | 17.08 | 20.47 | 23.72 | 26.55 | 28.67 | 29.81 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.12 | 2.92 | 3.90 | 5.05 | 6.35 | 7.73 | 9.10 | 10.36 | 11.39 | 12.07 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 | 1,500,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.11 | 2.84 | 3.56 | 4.32 | 5.10 | 5.83 | 6.44 | 6.89 | 7.11 | 7.07 | Raw: 191.69 149.21 |
Raw: 364.55 206.82 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 167.14 | 258.09 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Equity Value | 167.23 | 258.17 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Fair Value | $111.49 | $172.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.17% | 48.17% |
| Buy Price | $57.78 | $89.21 |
| Current Price | $99.85 | $99.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -42.13% | -10.66% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.11 | 2.82 | 3.51 | 4.23 | 4.94 | 5.59 | 6.12 | 6.48 | 6.63 | 6.53 | Raw: 132.55 99.43 |
Raw: 252.07 131.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 117.03 | 180.49 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Equity Value | 117.12 | 180.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Fair Value | $78.08 | $120.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.17% | 48.17% |
| Buy Price | $40.47 | $62.39 |
| Current Price | $99.85 | $99.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -59.47% | -37.51% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2.11 | 2.85 | 3.60 | 4.43 | 5.27 | 6.08 | 6.78 | 7.32 | 7.62 | 7.66 | Raw: 343.48 277.54 |
Raw: 653.22 403.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 295.80 | 456.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| Equity Value | 295.89 | 457.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Fair Value | $197.26 | $304.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 48.17% | 48.17% |
| Buy Price | $102.24 | $157.94 |
| Current Price | $99.85 | $99.85 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2.39% | 58.17% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 241.07 | 475.25 | 936.93 | 1,847.10 | 3,641.44 | 7,178.87 | 14,152.69 | 27,901.11 | 55,005.24 | 108,439.28 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% | 97.14% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.36 | 0.72 | 1.42 | 2.79 | 5.50 | 10.84 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 0.48 | 0.88 | 1.63 | 3.02 | 5.60 |
| $89.62 - $182.51 | 555 |
| $182.51 - $275.41 | 316 |
| $275.41 - $368.30 | 70 |
| $368.30 - $461.20 | 28 |
| $461.20 - $554.09 | 8 |
| $554.09 - $646.98 | 9 |
| $646.98 - $739.88 | 5 |
| $739.88 - $832.77 | 2 |
| $832.77 - $925.67 | 0 |
| $925.67 - $1,018.56 | 0 |
| $1,018.56 - $1,111.45 | 0 |
| $1,111.45 - $1,204.35 | 0 |
| $1,204.35 - $1,297.24 | 1 |
| $1,297.24 - $1,390.14 | 1 |
| $1,390.14 - $1,483.03 | 1 |
| $1,483.03 - $1,575.93 | 2 |
| $1,575.93 - $1,668.82 | 1 |
| $1,668.82 - $1,761.71 | 0 |
| $1,761.71 - $1,854.61 | 0 |
| $1,854.61 - $1,947.50 | 1 |