Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $17.31 |
| 5Y Range | 38.34 – 88.43 |
| 5Y Selected | 63.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.89% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $35.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 104.80% |
| 10Y Range | 43.22 – 96.95 |
| 10Y Selected | 70.09 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.89% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $39.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 126.46% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8547 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9414 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0882 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7729 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.3449 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8677 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0091 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5637 |
| Safety Score | 0.5593 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.97% | 13.75% | 12.53% | 11.31% | 10.09% | 8.88% | 7.66% | 6.44% | 5.22% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 32,968.10 | 37,501.29 | 42,200.74 | 46,974.76 | 51,716.34 | 56,306.23 | 60,617.22 | 64,519.49 | 67,886.61 | 70,602.08 |
| EBITDA | 6,034.00 | 6,863.68 | 7,723.80 | 8,597.57 | 9,465.40 | 10,305.47 | 11,094.49 | 11,808.70 | 12,424.97 | 12,921.97 |
| D&A | -1,877.10 | -2,135.20 | -2,402.77 | -2,674.59 | -2,944.56 | -3,205.89 | -3,451.35 | -3,673.53 | -3,865.24 | -4,019.85 |
| EBIT | 4,156.90 | 4,728.48 | 5,321.03 | 5,922.98 | 6,520.84 | 7,099.57 | 7,643.14 | 8,135.17 | 8,559.73 | 8,902.12 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,001.69 | -1,139.42 | -1,282.21 | -1,427.26 | -1,571.32 | -1,710.78 | -1,841.76 | -1,960.33 | -2,062.63 | -2,145.14 |
| NOPAT | 3,155.21 | 3,589.06 | 4,038.82 | 4,495.72 | 4,949.52 | 5,388.79 | 5,801.38 | 6,174.84 | 6,497.09 | 6,756.98 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,870.47 | -2,127.67 | -2,394.29 | -2,665.15 | -2,934.17 | -3,194.58 | -3,439.17 | -3,660.57 | -3,851.60 | -4,005.67 |
| NWC Investment | 285.80 | 301.83 | 312.90 | 317.87 | 315.71 | 305.61 | 287.04 | 259.82 | 224.19 | 180.80 |
| (+) D&A | 1,877.10 | 2,135.20 | 2,402.77 | 2,674.59 | 2,944.56 | 3,205.89 | 3,451.35 | 3,673.53 | 3,865.24 | 4,019.85 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,447.64 | 3,898.43 | 4,360.21 | 4,823.03 | 5,275.61 | 5,705.71 | 6,100.59 | 6,447.63 | 6,734.93 | 6,951.97 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 | 2,578,303,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,425.34 | 3,786.24 | 3,968.68 | 4,111.46 | 4,214.73 | 4,271.95 | 4,280.63 | 4,239.90 | 4,150.57 | 4,015.16 | Raw: 150,422.48 116,337.30 |
Raw: 198,219.94 110,828.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 135,843.75 | 151,293.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | -796.99 | -796.99 |
| Equity Value | 136,640.75 | 152,090.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,578.30 | 2,578.30 |
| Fair Value | $53.00 | $58.99 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.89% | 46.89% |
| Buy Price | $28.15 | $31.33 |
| Current Price | $17.31 | $17.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 62.60% | 80.99% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,422.15 | 3,770.38 | 3,915.36 | 4,018.19 | 4,080.87 | 4,097.87 | 4,068.07 | 3,991.95 | 3,871.57 | 3,710.48 | Raw: 105,799.10 78,857.99 |
Raw: 139,417.26 71,700.69 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 98,064.94 | 110,647.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | -796.99 | -796.99 |
| Equity Value | 98,861.93 | 111,444.57 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,578.30 | 2,578.30 |
| Fair Value | $38.34 | $43.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.89% | 46.89% |
| Buy Price | $20.36 | $22.96 |
| Current Price | $17.31 | $17.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 17.65% | 32.62% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,428.57 | 3,802.32 | 4,023.23 | 4,207.81 | 4,354.30 | 4,455.17 | 4,506.46 | 4,505.81 | 4,452.61 | 4,348.09 | Raw: 258,326.09 207,380.56 |
Raw: 340,410.42 207,084.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 227,196.79 | 249,168.95 |
| (-) Net Debt | -796.99 | -796.99 |
| Equity Value | 227,993.79 | 249,965.95 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,578.30 | 2,578.30 |
| Fair Value | $88.43 | $96.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 46.89% | 46.89% |
| Buy Price | $46.96 | $51.49 |
| Current Price | $17.31 | $17.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 171.31% | 197.46% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 107,978.29 | 204,291.45 | 386,512.83 | 731,269.82 | 1,383,538.93 | 2,617,611.07 | 4,952,435.80 | 9,369,848.93 | 17,727,452.21 | 33,539,768.28 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% | 89.20% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 10.80 | 20.43 | 38.65 | 73.13 | 138.35 | 261.76 | 495.24 | 936.98 | 1,772.75 | 3,353.98 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 10.32 | 17.42 | 30.88 | 54.75 | 97.08 | 172.13 | 305.21 | 541.16 | 959.54 | 1,701.35 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $20.86 | 14.42% | $34.32 | 64.52% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.37 | 17.59% | $15.45 | 109.66% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $5.27 | 20.88% | $11.94 | 126.50% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.36 | 20.83% | $8.88 | 103.72% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.51 | 14.13% | $4.02 | 14.66% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.97 | 12.99% | $-12.48 | -520.05% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $4.77 | 1.43% | $-2.85 | -159.78% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.05 | -1.38% | $-13.55 | -434.52% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $5.00 | -8.78% | $-2.92 | -158.31% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $13.98 | -19.22% | $4.72 | -66.25% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $25.96 | -20.46% | $5.87 | -77.37% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $10.65 | -18.31% | $2.60 | -75.63% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $27.19 | -1.36% | $2.49 | -90.83% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $12.48 | 17.42% | $5.71 | -54.23% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $5.71 | 27.98% | $4.00 | -30.01% |
| $32.46 - $54.14 | 414 |
| $54.14 - $75.82 | 384 |
| $75.82 - $97.49 | 130 |
| $97.49 - $119.17 | 40 |
| $119.17 - $140.85 | 13 |
| $140.85 - $162.53 | 12 |
| $162.53 - $184.21 | 1 |
| $184.21 - $205.88 | 3 |
| $205.88 - $227.56 | 0 |
| $227.56 - $249.24 | 1 |
| $249.24 - $270.92 | 0 |
| $270.92 - $292.59 | 0 |
| $292.59 - $314.27 | 1 |
| $314.27 - $335.95 | 0 |
| $335.95 - $357.63 | 0 |
| $357.63 - $379.31 | 0 |
| $379.31 - $400.98 | 0 |
| $400.98 - $422.66 | 0 |
| $422.66 - $444.34 | 0 |
| $444.34 - $466.02 | 0 |