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Lebledor F&B Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$121.00
5Y Range584.14 – 1,354.98
5Y Selected969.56
(-) Safety Margin44.87%
5Y Buy Price$561.18
Upside (to Buy Price)363.79%
10Y Range688.39 – 1,560.93
10Y Selected1,124.66
(-) Safety Margin44.87%
10Y Buy Price$650.95
Upside (to Buy Price)437.98%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9784
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9784
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8615
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8615
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9457
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9457
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4135
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4135
Safety Score0.5788

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth18.09%16.52%14.96%13.39%11.83%10.26%8.70%7.13%5.57%4.00%
Revenue2,602.673,032.733,486.393,953.334,420.914,874.595,298.515,676.345,992.266,231.95
EBITDA666.42776.54892.701,012.261,131.981,248.151,356.691,453.441,534.331,595.70
D&A-308.26-359.20-412.93-468.23-523.61-577.35-627.56-672.31-709.73-738.11
EBIT358.16417.34479.77544.02608.37670.80729.14781.13824.61857.59
Pro forma Taxes-69.29-80.74-92.82-105.26-117.70-129.78-141.07-151.13-159.54-165.92
NOPAT288.86336.60386.95438.77490.67541.02588.07630.00665.07691.67
Capital Expenditures-193.28-225.22-258.91-293.59-328.31-362.00-393.48-421.54-445.00-462.80
NWC Investment11.1212.0012.6613.0313.0412.6611.8310.548.816.69
(+) D&A308.26359.20412.93468.23523.61577.35627.56672.31709.73738.11
Free Cash Flow414.96482.57553.62626.44699.01769.02833.97891.31938.60973.67
Diluted Shares Outstanding21,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.7521,982,203.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.74%Terminal Growth: 3.11%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.610.58
PV UFCF412.27468.61503.66533.57557.79574.90584.09584.83576.97560.73
Raw: 19,862.54
15,341.04
Raw: 27,666.84
15,421.92

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,816.9420,779.33
(-) Net Debt6.356.35
Equity Value17,810.5920,772.98
(/) Shares Out21.9821.98
Fair Value$810.23$944.99
(-) Safety Margin44.87%44.87%
Buy Price$446.68$520.97
Current Price$121.00$121.00
Upside (to Buy Price)269.16%330.56%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.74%Terminal Growth: 2.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.570.53
PV UFCF411.88466.65496.89521.47540.08551.48555.09550.64538.20518.19
Raw: 13,985.22
10,410.04
Raw: 19,480.24
9,988.20

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,847.0215,138.78
(-) Net Debt6.356.35
Equity Value12,840.6715,132.43
(/) Shares Out21.9821.98
Fair Value$584.14$688.39
(-) Safety Margin44.87%44.87%
Buy Price$322.04$379.51
Current Price$121.00$121.00
Upside (to Buy Price)166.15%213.65%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.74%Terminal Growth: 3.61%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.870.820.780.740.700.660.62
PV UFCF412.65470.60510.58546.07576.25599.55614.89621.49618.94607.21
Raw: 34,022.60
27,275.69
Raw: 47,390.61
28,740.79

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value29,791.8534,319.03
(-) Net Debt6.356.35
Equity Value29,785.4934,312.67
(/) Shares Out21.9821.98
Fair Value$1,354.98$1,560.93
(-) Safety Margin44.87%44.87%
Buy Price$747.00$860.54
Current Price$121.00$121.00
Upside (to Buy Price)517.36%611.19%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$121.00
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH85.22%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,973.5514,768.8827,355.4150,668.6293,850.14173,832.41321,978.28596,379.091,104,633.562,046,039.71
Constant Implied Growth85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%85.22%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.801.482.745.079.3917.3832.2059.64110.46204.60
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.610.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF0.761.262.183.796.5711.4119.7934.3559.60103.42

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
Error: Rolling DCF Data Not Available
Debug Info: Read Error

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$1,031.90
Median
$909.53
10th Percentile
$681.99
90th Percentile
$1,431.61

Fair Value Distribution

$467.29 - $771.20
262
$771.20 - $1,075.10
429
$1,075.10 - $1,379.01
198
$1,379.01 - $1,682.92
46
$1,682.92 - $1,986.82
28
$1,986.82 - $2,290.73
19
$2,290.73 - $2,594.64
6
$2,594.64 - $2,898.54
2
$2,898.54 - $3,202.45
1
$3,202.45 - $3,506.36
1
$3,506.36 - $3,810.27
0
$3,810.27 - $4,114.17
3
$4,114.17 - $4,418.08
2
$4,418.08 - $4,721.99
0
$4,721.99 - $5,025.89
1
$5,025.89 - $5,329.80
0
$5,329.80 - $5,633.71
1
$5,633.71 - $5,937.61
0
$5,937.61 - $6,241.52
0
$6,241.52 - $6,545.43
1