Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $3.77 |
| 5Y Range | 71.55 – 147.24 |
| 5Y Selected | 109.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.43% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $20.18 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 435.39% |
| 10Y Range | 69.68 – 136.58 |
| 10Y Selected | 103.13 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.43% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $19.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 404.73% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6243 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3442 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1926 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1212 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1260 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4943 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3078 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0721 |
| Safety Score | 0.1845 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -7.73% | -6.43% | -5.13% | -3.82% | -2.52% | -1.21% | 0.09% | 1.39% | 2.70% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 69,401.15 | 64,938.91 | 61,610.19 | 59,255.32 | 57,762.96 | 57,061.25 | 57,111.98 | 57,907.31 | 59,468.67 | 61,847.41 |
| EBITDA | 62,766.27 | 58,730.63 | 55,720.14 | 53,590.40 | 52,240.72 | 51,606.09 | 51,651.96 | 52,371.26 | 53,783.35 | 55,934.68 |
| D&A | -1,280.60 | -1,198.26 | -1,136.84 | -1,093.38 | -1,065.85 | -1,052.90 | -1,053.84 | -1,068.51 | -1,097.32 | -1,141.21 |
| EBIT | 61,485.67 | 57,532.37 | 54,583.31 | 52,497.01 | 51,174.87 | 50,553.19 | 50,598.13 | 51,302.75 | 52,686.03 | 54,793.47 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -8,970.78 | -8,394.00 | -7,963.73 | -7,659.34 | -7,466.43 | -7,375.73 | -7,382.29 | -7,485.09 | -7,686.91 | -7,994.39 |
| NOPAT | 52,514.88 | 49,138.37 | 46,619.58 | 44,837.68 | 43,708.43 | 43,177.46 | 43,215.84 | 43,817.66 | 44,999.12 | 46,799.08 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,265.87 | -1,184.48 | -1,123.77 | -1,080.81 | -1,053.59 | -1,040.79 | -1,041.72 | -1,056.23 | -1,084.71 | -1,128.09 |
| NWC Investment | 83.29 | 63.89 | 47.66 | 33.72 | 21.37 | 10.05 | -0.73 | -11.39 | -22.36 | -34.06 |
| (+) D&A | 1,280.60 | 1,198.26 | 1,136.84 | 1,093.38 | 1,065.85 | 1,052.90 | 1,053.84 | 1,068.51 | 1,097.32 | 1,141.21 |
| Free Cash Flow | 52,612.90 | 49,216.04 | 46,680.31 | 44,883.97 | 43,742.06 | 43,199.61 | 43,227.23 | 43,818.56 | 44,989.37 | 46,778.14 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 | 11,502,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52,274.11 | 47,805.91 | 42,506.25 | 38,288.98 | 34,980.49 | 32,385.50 | 30,378.92 | 28,868.03 | 27,785.18 | 27,082.59 | Raw: 1,135,101.78 878,888.04 |
Raw: 1,213,887.81 680,452.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,094,743.77 | 1,042,808.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,281.13 | 1,281.13 |
| Equity Value | 1,093,462.64 | 1,041,527.52 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,502.00 | 11,502.00 |
| Fair Value | $95.07 | $90.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.43% | 84.43% |
| Buy Price | $14.80 | $14.10 |
| Current Price | $3.77 | $3.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 292.62% | 273.98% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52,225.36 | 47,605.60 | 41,935.03 | 37,420.12 | 33,869.20 | 31,065.43 | 28,870.00 | 27,179.37 | 25,916.90 | 25,026.95 | Raw: 819,151.35 611,245.71 |
Raw: 876,007.64 451,667.41 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 824,301.01 | 802,781.36 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,281.13 | 1,281.13 |
| Equity Value | 823,019.88 | 801,500.22 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,502.00 | 11,502.00 |
| Fair Value | $71.55 | $69.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.43% | 84.43% |
| Buy Price | $11.14 | $10.85 |
| Current Price | $3.77 | $3.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 195.52% | 187.79% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 52,323.37 | 48,008.96 | 43,090.74 | 39,186.49 | 36,139.23 | 33,774.90 | 31,982.05 | 30,679.02 | 29,807.67 | 29,328.89 | Raw: 1,836,638.25 1,476,116.36 |
Raw: 1,964,117.06 1,197,946.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,694,865.13 | 1,572,267.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,281.13 | 1,281.13 |
| Equity Value | 1,693,584.00 | 1,570,986.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,502.00 | 11,502.00 |
| Fair Value | $147.24 | $136.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 84.43% | 84.43% |
| Buy Price | $22.93 | $21.27 |
| Current Price | $3.77 | $3.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 508.11% | 464.09% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 258,621.53 | 443,558.66 | 760,742.09 | 1,304,739.54 | 2,237,742.99 | 3,837,925.90 | 6,582,380.23 | 11,289,360.63 | 19,362,245.70 | 33,207,953.14 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% | 71.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 25.86 | 44.36 | 76.07 | 130.47 | 223.77 | 383.79 | 658.24 | 1,128.94 | 1,936.22 | 3,320.80 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 24.72 | 37.84 | 60.84 | 97.81 | 157.26 | 252.85 | 406.52 | 653.61 | 1,050.87 | 1,689.58 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.21 | -16.95% | $14.87 | 185.38% |
| $54.07 - $88.50 | 486 |
| $88.50 - $122.92 | 365 |
| $122.92 - $157.35 | 103 |
| $157.35 - $191.77 | 26 |
| $191.77 - $226.20 | 8 |
| $226.20 - $260.62 | 7 |
| $260.62 - $295.05 | 0 |
| $295.05 - $329.48 | 0 |
| $329.48 - $363.90 | 2 |
| $363.90 - $398.33 | 0 |
| $398.33 - $432.75 | 1 |
| $432.75 - $467.18 | 1 |
| $467.18 - $501.60 | 0 |
| $501.60 - $536.03 | 0 |
| $536.03 - $570.46 | 0 |
| $570.46 - $604.88 | 0 |
| $604.88 - $639.31 | 0 |
| $639.31 - $673.73 | 0 |
| $673.73 - $708.16 | 0 |
| $708.16 - $742.58 | 1 |