Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $6.25 |
| 5Y Range | 11.51 – 22.04 |
| 5Y Selected | 16.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.86 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -6.24% |
| 10Y Range | 11.89 – 21.93 |
| 10Y Selected | 16.91 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -5.50% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8878 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8878 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.3562 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3562 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6838 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6838 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5512 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5512 |
| Safety Score | 0.3493 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 1.70% | 1.96% | 2.21% | 2.47% | 2.72% | 2.98% | 3.23% | 3.49% | 3.74% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 689.15 | 702.62 | 718.16 | 735.88 | 755.91 | 778.42 | 803.59 | 831.62 | 862.76 | 897.27 |
| EBITDA | 137.68 | 140.37 | 143.48 | 147.02 | 151.02 | 155.52 | 160.55 | 166.15 | 172.37 | 179.26 |
| D&A | -7.97 | -8.12 | -8.30 | -8.51 | -8.74 | -9.00 | -9.29 | -9.61 | -9.97 | -10.37 |
| EBIT | 129.72 | 132.25 | 135.18 | 138.51 | 142.28 | 146.52 | 151.26 | 156.53 | 162.39 | 168.89 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -16.98 | -17.31 | -17.69 | -18.13 | -18.62 | -19.18 | -19.80 | -20.49 | -21.26 | -22.11 |
| NOPAT | 112.74 | 114.94 | 117.48 | 120.38 | 123.66 | 127.34 | 131.46 | 136.04 | 141.14 | 146.78 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.81 | -2.86 | -2.92 | -3.00 | -3.08 | -3.17 | -3.27 | -3.39 | -3.51 | -3.65 |
| NWC Investment | -1.07 | -1.25 | -1.44 | -1.64 | -1.85 | -2.08 | -2.33 | -2.60 | -2.88 | -3.19 |
| (+) D&A | 7.97 | 8.12 | 8.30 | 8.51 | 8.74 | 9.00 | 9.29 | 9.61 | 9.97 | 10.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.83 | 118.95 | 121.42 | 124.25 | 127.46 | 131.08 | 135.14 | 139.67 | 144.71 | 150.31 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 | 189,288,542.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.99 | 115.10 | 109.36 | 104.18 | 99.48 | 95.24 | 91.40 | 87.93 | 84.81 | 82.00 | Raw: 3,005.23 2,263.02 |
Raw: 3,543.83 1,865.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,807.13 | 2,850.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | -26.80 | -26.80 |
| Equity Value | 2,833.93 | 2,877.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 189.29 | 189.29 |
| Fair Value | $14.97 | $15.20 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.76% | 66.76% |
| Buy Price | $4.98 | $5.05 |
| Current Price | $6.25 | $6.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -20.38% | -19.15% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | ||
| PV UFCF | 115.89 | 114.61 | 107.89 | 101.83 | 96.34 | 91.38 | 86.89 | 82.82 | 79.14 | 75.81 | Raw: 2,226.55 1,616.24 |
Raw: 2,625.59 1,271.86 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,152.81 | 2,224.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | -26.80 | -26.80 |
| Equity Value | 2,179.61 | 2,251.28 |
| (/) Shares Out | 189.29 | 189.29 |
| Fair Value | $11.51 | $11.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.76% | 66.76% |
| Buy Price | $3.83 | $3.95 |
| Current Price | $6.25 | $6.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -38.76% | -36.75% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 116.10 | 115.59 | 110.87 | 106.60 | 102.75 | 99.29 | 96.19 | 93.41 | 90.94 | 88.75 | Raw: 4,597.61 3,592.75 |
Raw: 5,421.60 3,103.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,144.67 | 4,123.54 |
| (-) Net Debt | -26.80 | -26.80 |
| Equity Value | 4,171.47 | 4,150.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 189.29 | 189.29 |
| Fair Value | $22.04 | $21.93 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 66.76% | 66.76% |
| Buy Price | $7.33 | $7.29 |
| Current Price | $6.25 | $6.25 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 17.20% | 16.61% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 3,256.37 | 6,215.21 | 11,862.53 | 22,641.19 | 43,213.67 | 82,478.92 | 157,421.77 | 300,459.98 | 573,467.04 | 1,094,536.60 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% | 90.86% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.33 | 0.62 | 1.19 | 2.26 | 4.32 | 8.25 | 15.74 | 30.05 | 57.35 | 109.45 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.31 | 0.52 | 0.93 | 1.64 | 2.92 | 5.19 | 9.23 | 16.39 | 29.12 | 51.74 |
| $8.63 - $10.36 | 20 |
| $10.36 - $12.08 | 111 |
| $12.08 - $13.81 | 195 |
| $13.81 - $15.53 | 235 |
| $15.53 - $17.25 | 151 |
| $17.25 - $18.98 | 111 |
| $18.98 - $20.70 | 53 |
| $20.70 - $22.43 | 36 |
| $22.43 - $24.15 | 31 |
| $24.15 - $25.88 | 27 |
| $25.88 - $27.60 | 9 |
| $27.60 - $29.32 | 7 |
| $29.32 - $31.05 | 5 |
| $31.05 - $32.77 | 5 |
| $32.77 - $34.50 | 0 |
| $34.50 - $36.22 | 2 |
| $36.22 - $37.94 | 1 |
| $37.94 - $39.67 | 0 |
| $39.67 - $41.39 | 0 |
| $41.39 - $43.12 | 1 |