Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $82.50 |
| 5Y Range | 104.74 – 201.58 |
| 5Y Selected | 153.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.62% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $26.02 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -68.46% |
| 10Y Range | 105.69 – 195.22 |
| 10Y Selected | 150.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.62% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $25.56 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.02% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0015 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0015 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2480 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2480 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2611 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2611 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0146 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0146 |
| Safety Score | 0.1699 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -3.15% | -2.35% | -1.56% | -0.76% | 0.03% | 0.82% | 1.62% | 2.41% | 3.21% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 689.55 | 673.33 | 662.84 | 657.78 | 657.98 | 663.40 | 674.14 | 690.40 | 712.53 | 741.04 |
| EBITDA | 103.68 | 101.24 | 99.67 | 98.90 | 98.93 | 99.75 | 101.36 | 103.81 | 107.14 | 111.42 |
| D&A | -13.32 | -13.01 | -12.81 | -12.71 | -12.71 | -12.82 | -13.02 | -13.34 | -13.77 | -14.32 |
| EBIT | 90.36 | 88.23 | 86.86 | 86.20 | 86.22 | 86.93 | 88.34 | 90.47 | 93.37 | 97.11 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -17.22 | -16.81 | -16.55 | -16.42 | -16.43 | -16.56 | -16.83 | -17.24 | -17.79 | -18.50 |
| NOPAT | 73.14 | 71.42 | 70.31 | 69.77 | 69.80 | 70.37 | 71.51 | 73.23 | 75.58 | 78.61 |
| Capital Expenditures | -8.13 | -7.94 | -7.81 | -7.75 | -7.75 | -7.82 | -7.95 | -8.14 | -8.40 | -8.73 |
| NWC Investment | 0.81 | 0.58 | 0.38 | 0.18 | -0.01 | -0.20 | -0.39 | -0.59 | -0.80 | -1.03 |
| (+) D&A | 13.32 | 13.01 | 12.81 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 12.82 | 13.02 | 13.34 | 13.77 | 14.32 |
| Free Cash Flow | 79.14 | 77.08 | 75.68 | 74.91 | 74.75 | 75.17 | 76.20 | 77.85 | 80.15 | 83.16 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 | 12,563,249.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78.62 | 74.77 | 68.73 | 63.68 | 59.48 | 56.00 | 53.14 | 50.82 | 48.98 | 47.57 | Raw: 1,771.79 1,364.16 |
Raw: 1,971.30 1,091.04 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,709.45 | 1,692.84 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.89 | -3.89 |
| Equity Value | 1,713.34 | 1,696.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.56 | 12.56 |
| Fair Value | $136.38 | $135.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.62% | 85.62% |
| Buy Price | $19.61 | $19.42 |
| Current Price | $82.50 | $82.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.23% | -76.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78.55 | 74.45 | 67.80 | 62.24 | 57.59 | 53.72 | 50.50 | 47.85 | 45.69 | 43.97 | Raw: 1,309.05 971.37 |
Raw: 1,456.45 741.53 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,312.01 | 1,323.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.89 | -3.89 |
| Equity Value | 1,315.90 | 1,327.78 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.56 | 12.56 |
| Fair Value | $104.74 | $105.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.62% | 85.62% |
| Buy Price | $15.06 | $15.20 |
| Current Price | $82.50 | $82.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.74% | -81.58% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 78.70 | 75.10 | 69.68 | 65.17 | 61.45 | 58.40 | 55.94 | 54.00 | 52.54 | 51.51 | Raw: 2,726.08 2,178.55 |
Raw: 3,033.05 1,826.28 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,528.65 | 2,448.76 |
| (-) Net Debt | -3.89 | -3.89 |
| Equity Value | 2,532.54 | 2,452.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 12.56 | 12.56 |
| Fair Value | $201.58 | $195.22 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.62% | 85.62% |
| Buy Price | $28.99 | $28.07 |
| Current Price | $82.50 | $82.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.86% | -65.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,709.89 | 5,109.66 | 9,634.56 | 18,166.53 | 34,254.07 | 64,588.07 | 121,784.63 | 229,632.12 | 432,984.92 | 816,418.65 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% | 88.56% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.27 | 0.51 | 0.96 | 1.82 | 3.43 | 6.46 | 12.18 | 22.96 | 43.30 | 81.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.77 | 1.35 | 2.39 | 4.22 | 7.44 | 13.14 | 23.19 | 40.93 |
| $79.37 - $112.13 | 173 |
| $112.13 - $144.90 | 448 |
| $144.90 - $177.66 | 228 |
| $177.66 - $210.43 | 82 |
| $210.43 - $243.19 | 34 |
| $243.19 - $275.96 | 14 |
| $275.96 - $308.72 | 6 |
| $308.72 - $341.49 | 7 |
| $341.49 - $374.25 | 3 |
| $374.25 - $407.02 | 0 |
| $407.02 - $439.78 | 3 |
| $439.78 - $472.55 | 0 |
| $472.55 - $505.32 | 1 |
| $505.32 - $538.08 | 0 |
| $538.08 - $570.85 | 0 |
| $570.85 - $603.61 | 0 |
| $603.61 - $636.38 | 0 |
| $636.38 - $669.14 | 0 |
| $669.14 - $701.91 | 0 |
| $701.91 - $734.67 | 0 |